Core Viewpoint - The core value of commemorative coins and notes lies in their cultural significance and collectible attributes, as well as the demand for gifts before the festival, while the short-term speculation leading to false premiums requires vigilance from all parties [4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and notes sold out instantly upon reservation, with reports of secondary market premiums exceeding five times the original price [1]. - On platforms like Xianyu, the complete set of horse notes has surged from the original price of 400 yuan to 2000 yuan, with some specific serial numbers trading at extreme rates, such as "one banknote for one gram of gold" [1]. - The issuance volume of the commemorative coins and notes reached 100 million each, which does not align with the reasonable threshold of "scarcity" in the collectible market, indicating limited long-term appreciation potential [5][6]. Group 2: Speculation and Consumer Behavior - Some cultural shops are excessively marking up the prices of low-cost commemorative coins, with a 158% premium on a 10 yuan coin selling for 25.8 yuan and a 240% premium on a 20 yuan note selling for 68 yuan [3]. - The low barrier to entry for the public to participate in reservations, requiring only an ID, has turned the speculation into a "collecting frenzy" accessible to everyone [4]. - The hype surrounding the "sold-out" status and "first-day appreciation" rumors often triggers a herd mentality among the public, further inflating market enthusiasm [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies have begun to take action to standardize market order, with the People's Bank of China and the State Administration for Market Regulation issuing guidelines to curb illegal trading of RMB and requiring honesty and fairness in transactions [7]. - An official secondary trading platform has been launched to provide a legitimate channel for the circulation of commemorative coins, aiming to reduce speculation [7]. - There is a need for precise actions against scalpers and false advertising on second-hand platforms, as well as strict checks on the risks of personal information leakage associated with "reservation tools" [7].