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虚假相关性
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虚假相关性:很多看似相关的事情之间根本无关
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-25 07:14
Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "illusory correlation," which refers to the tendency to overestimate the relationship between two variables even when no such relationship exists [1][2] - Illusory correlations are prevalent in decision-making processes, especially in high-pressure environments where individuals rely on mental shortcuts to make quick judgments [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of challenging assumptions to uncover hidden cognitive patterns that drive thinking, particularly when making significant decisions [8] Group 2 - The article provides examples of illusory correlations, such as believing that wearing a specific item of clothing leads to success in competitions or that certain days are unlucky for interviews [5][7] - It introduces a contingency table as a method to identify when individuals are most susceptible to illusory correlations, highlighting that the presence of both an outcome and a potential cause is crucial for forming these false associations [3][7] - The article suggests that recognizing and questioning these illusory correlations can lead to better decision-making and a deeper understanding of one's cognitive biases [8]