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《磷酸铁锂材料行业成本研究》发布,或为恶性竞争划定红线 | 投研报告
Core Insights - The report highlights the urgent need to address the severe competition in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials industry, aiming to establish a cost index to guide companies and regulators [2][8]. Industry Overview - The lithium battery export value reached $55.38 billion from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.75% [3]. - The energy storage installation capacity surged by 60% year-on-year, with the total industry output value expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan [3]. - LFP materials dominate the market, accounting for nearly 74% of cathode material shipments, with a staggering 99.9% share in the energy storage battery sector [4]. Structural Challenges - The industry faces overcapacity, with domestic production capacity projected to reach 4.7 million tons in 2024, a 34% increase year-on-year, while actual production is only 2.3 million tons, resulting in a utilization rate of less than 50% [5]. - Prices have plummeted from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan per ton by August 2025, reflecting a dramatic decline of 80.2% [6]. - The industry has experienced continuous losses for over 36 months, with six listed companies reporting an average debt-to-asset ratio of 67.81% [7]. Cost Index Development - The cost index is based on audited data from seven leading companies, which collectively hold a 74% market share, using various methodologies to establish a clear development benchmark [8]. - The average cost range for LFP materials is determined to be between 15,714.8 yuan/ton and 16,439.3 yuan/ton (pre-tax), providing a reference point for cost management [8]. - This cost index aims to enhance market transparency, assist upstream and downstream companies in decision-making, and delineate boundaries for unhealthy competition [8]. Investment Strategy - Companies with technological leadership and strong influence in the LFP cathode material supply chain, such as Hunan Youneng and Deyang Nano, are recommended for investment focus [9].