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中国工程院邬贺铨院士:2026年ICT发展的七大趋势
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 01:55
Core Insights - The report by the Chinese Academy of Engineering Academician Wu Hequan presents seven predictions for the development of the ICT industry by 2026, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptation in the face of evolving technologies [1] Group 1: 6G Standardization and AI Integration - 6G standardization is expected to officially commence in 2026, but it will face more uncertainties compared to previous generations like 3G and 5G, as global operators and equipment suppliers have not yet reached a consensus [3][10] - Key technical directions for 6G include integrated modulation coding, joint source and channel coding, and collaborative resource management, with a focus on AI to unlock potential in wireless communication [3][10] Group 2: AI and Intelligent Terminal Transformation - The deep integration of large models and intelligent agents is transforming communication terminal models, leading to a shift from passive tools to proactive service partners [4][11] - The impact of AI intelligent terminals in 2026 is expected to include the proliferation of dedicated AI acceleration modules, standardization of AI agent frameworks, and a shift in focus from hardware to software and services [4][11] Group 3: New Digital Interaction Paradigms - The traditional app-based interaction model is being replaced by AI-driven systems that allow users to complete tasks through simple voice or text commands, fundamentally reshaping user engagement with digital services [5][12] - The new digital landscape will see intelligent agents as gatekeepers, with operating systems and chip manufacturers gaining significant control over service access and resource allocation [5][12] Group 4: Transition to Semantic Addressing - A shift from traditional DNS to semantic addressing is anticipated, which will decouple content from location and facilitate dynamic service assembly based on user intent [6][13] - This new paradigm will simplify device management and interoperability, allowing for more intuitive interactions in both consumer and business applications [6][13] Group 5: IPv6-Only Future - The transition to an IPv6-only model is deemed essential, as maintaining a dual-stack system incurs high costs and security risks [7][14] - The implementation of technologies like 464XLAT will enable compatibility with IPv4 services without hardware changes, enhancing cost-effectiveness and security [7][14] Group 6: Advancements in 2B Networking - The construction of 2B networks is expected to undergo significant advancements, focusing on specialized networks that leverage multiple technologies for enhanced performance [8][15] - The integration of local and cloud computing will allow small and medium enterprises to access intelligent computing resources at lower costs [8][15] Group 7: Data Element Action Plan - By 2026, the goal is to complete the establishment of 30 trusted data space pilot projects, focusing on building diverse data set systems and ensuring secure data circulation [9][16] - The transition from foundational infrastructure to value realization will empower enterprises to utilize data resources effectively, driving high-quality development in the digital economy [9][16]