贝叶斯方法
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如何评估储能系统可靠性?这场跨界对话提供了方向
中关村储能产业技术联盟· 2025-10-31 02:36
文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 本次圆桌对话汇聚多领域专家,旨在借鉴数据中心UPS电源与车规BMS的成熟经验,融 合FTA(故障树分析)、FMEA(故障模式与影响分析)、贝叶斯方法等评估技术以及 SIL(安全完整性等级)风险等级判定标准, 深入探讨锂电池单体失效率、系统事故发生 率、全生命周期可靠性 等关键议题,进而明确可靠性评价对储能系统安全性能等级评价 的支撑作用。 构建研发、生产、应用三阶段评价体系 中创新航科技集团股份有限公司可靠性专家、产品可靠性部门负责人高坡提出,应通过研 发、生产与应用三个阶段构建锂电池全生命周期可靠性评价体系。 在研发阶段, 重点围绕设计可靠性展开,结合化学体系与结构件耐久性验证产品是否满 足2 0- 30年质保要求; 生产阶段 则通过严格管控原料与工艺波动,确保产品可靠性处于可控范围; 应用阶段 则依赖BMS等管控系统,持续维持电池性能的稳健性。 当前储能系统仍面临可靠性评估方法不完善、整体评价难度大等挑战。 日前,由中关村储能产业技术联盟、应急管理部天津消防研究所、天津大学国家储能技术 产教融合创新平台共同主办的 第五届储能安全研讨会上,应急管理部天津消防研究所、 中汽研华 ...
「三场对话」深度解读储能大规模火烧实验、系统可靠性与事故应对!第五届储能安全研讨会亮点抢先看
中关村储能产业技术联盟· 2025-10-13 09:41
Core Viewpoint - The global energy structure is rapidly transitioning towards clean and low-carbon solutions, with energy storage emerging as a core supporting technology for new power systems. However, safety incidents related to electrochemical energy storage systems, such as lithium-ion battery thermal runaway and issues with system integration quality, pose significant challenges to the industry's high-quality development, necessitating collaborative efforts to address these challenges [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Fifth Energy Storage Safety Seminar and the National Key R&D Program project "International Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Safety Evaluation Key Technology Cooperation R&D" will be held in Tianjin on October 16-17, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Roundtable Discussions - Roundtable discussions will cover various topics, including large-scale fire tests, the necessity of "burn chamber" tests, and the impact of different testing conditions on outcomes [3][4]. - The discussions will also explore the reliability assessment of energy storage systems and lessons from other industries, focusing on the current safety status and the necessity of fire extinguishing systems in energy storage configurations [8][9]. Group 3: Expert Contributions - Experts from various institutions will present on topics such as lithium battery reliability evaluation, safety assessment technologies, and the application of reliability assessment methods like FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) [9][10]. - The discussions will also address the necessity of fire extinguishing systems, the adaptability of existing extinguishing methods, and the principles of emergency response for energy storage incidents [15][21]. Group 4: Conference Agenda - The conference will feature keynote speeches from prominent researchers and industry leaders, covering topics such as fire prevention strategies for lithium batteries, intelligent battery technologies, and safety evaluation techniques for energy storage systems [17][21]. - The agenda includes a series of thematic reports and roundtable discussions aimed at enhancing safety and reliability in energy storage systems [13][14]. Group 5: Organizing Institutions - The event is organized by the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, the Emergency Management Department's Tianjin Fire Research Institute, and the National Energy Storage Technology Industry-Education Integration Innovation Platform at Tianjin University [24][26]. - Various supporting organizations and industry leaders are involved, including major energy companies and research institutions [24][28].