财务杠杆效应

Search documents
绿城中国(03900)VS 建发国际(01908),哪个更好?
智通财经网· 2025-03-30 06:51
Core Viewpoint - After the downturn in the real estate market, only a few companies are expected to report profits in their 2024 financial statements, indicating that those actively acquiring land have not only survived but are also poised for growth. The current real estate market is characterized by structural trends, with strong second-tier and first-tier cities stabilizing, while the market in third-tier cities and below is still bottoming out [1]. Company Analysis - The companies still acquiring land in 2024 are primarily focused on core cities. The ratio of 2024's newly added equity value to market capitalization indicates that Greentown China and Jianfa International have high ratios, with Greentown at 3.73 and Jianfa at 2.45. Greentown's market value dropped by 11% due to a leadership change, enhancing its ratio [3]. - In terms of operational data for 2024, Greentown China reported revenue of 158.5 billion, slightly higher than Jianfa International's 142.99 billion. Greentown's operating cash flow of 28.8 billion significantly outperformed Jianfa's 14.9 billion, indicating higher operational efficiency. Both companies recorded impairment provisions, with Greentown at 4.917 billion and Jianfa at 3.67 billion [3][4]. - Greentown's total land reserve value is double that of Jianfa, with over half of it from projects initiated before 2022. This heavier historical burden suggests that Greentown will likely face more significant and prolonged impairment provisions compared to Jianfa. Both companies have similar dividend payout ratios around 50%, but Greentown's net profit has been severely impacted by substantial impairment provisions, resulting in a current dividend yield of 3%, which is significantly lower than Jianfa's 7.36% [4]. - In terms of debt metrics for 2024, Greentown China has interest-bearing liabilities of 137.2 billion and a net asset liability ratio of 56.6%, both significantly higher than Jianfa's 84.5 billion and 31.78%. The financing rates are comparable, with Jianfa at 3.56% and Greentown at 3.7%, both considered low in the real estate sector. Greentown's debt indicators are showing a downward trend, with interest-bearing liabilities down 6.1%, net asset liability ratio down 7.2%, and financing rate down 0.4% year-on-year [4]. Summary - Jianfa International exhibits more stable finances, a lighter historical burden, and a higher dividend yield. In contrast, Greentown shows significant operational improvements in 2024, with notable growth potential in the recovering high-end city real estate market. If the real estate sector experiences another upturn, Greentown is likely to be a preferred choice [5].