Core Viewpoint - Brazil's federal government debt is approaching unsustainable levels, projected to reach 84.3% of GDP by 2028, up from a previous estimate of 81.8% at the end of last year [1][2] Group 1: Debt Projections - By 2025, Brazil's government debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise to 79%, compared to 76.5% in 2024 [2] - The Brazilian Senate's Fiscal Independent Institution (IFI) predicts that by 2035, debt could reach 124.9% of GDP, indicating a severe fiscal pressure [2][5] - The current trend suggests that by 2027, all available budget income will be consumed by mandatory expenditures, leaving no discretionary space [2][3] Group 2: Economic Conditions - High interest rates, currently at 15%, and rigid spending are contributing to a "fiscal vicious cycle," where high deficits lead to increased borrowing costs [3][4] - Brazil's real interest rate is projected to be 9.76% in 2025, the second highest globally, which significantly raises the cost of financing for businesses [2][3] - The Brazilian government aims for a zero primary deficit by 2025, but allows for a deficit of 31 billion reais (approximately 0.25% of GDP) [3] Group 3: External Challenges - Recent U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on certain Brazilian products add uncertainty to Brazil's economic outlook [4] - The government is implementing emergency plans to support affected industries without relying on large-scale fiscal subsidies [4][5] Group 4: Structural Issues - The core issue of Brazil's fiscal predicament lies in uncontrolled spending, with mandatory expenditures growing faster than available income [5][6] - Experts suggest that to stabilize debt, Brazil needs a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP, assuming interest rates drop to 4%-5% and economic growth averages 2.2% annually [5][6] - Without reforms, the next president in 2027 will face a deep fiscal restructuring challenge, exacerbated by high interest rates and rigid spending [5][6]

新华财经圣保罗8月11日电 巴西财政部最新发布的《财政预测报告》显示，联邦政府债务正逼近不可持 续水平，预计2028年将达到国内生产总值（GDP）的84.3%，高于去年底预测的81.8%。此前预期债务 将在2027年见顶后回落，但最新数据表明，峰值被推迟至2028年且绝对水平抬升。 在高利率、刚性支出和外部冲击交织的背景下，巴西财政结构性失衡风险进一步加剧。多位经济学家警 告，若不尽快推进结构性改革，巴西可能在数年内面临深度财政重组的迫切挑战。 债务压力持续攀升财政前景趋紧 巴西参议院财政独立机构（IFI）6月发布的《财政跟踪报告》中更给出悲观预测——到2035年，巴西债 务可能升至GDP的124.9%。IFI执行董事马科斯·佩斯塔纳（Marcos Pestana）警告，按现行趋势，2027年 将出现"绝对财政挤压"，届时预算中的全部可用收入都将被强制性支出吞噬，没有自由裁量空间。 高利率与刚性支出陷入"财政恶性循环" 巴西财政部将债务前景恶化归因于利率、汇率和通胀预期全面上调。 目前，巴西基准利率已连续上调7次至15%。2024年巴西通胀率为4.83%。巴西央行最新报告预测2025年 通胀预期为5.07%。 ...