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法国进一步陷入政治危机,马克龙下一步是“自救”还是“自毁”?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-07 07:48
Core Points - French Prime Minister Le Cornu unexpectedly resigned after only 27 days in office, creating a significant political challenge for President Macron [1] - The resignation highlights the ongoing political deadlock in France, exacerbated by Macron's previous decision to dissolve parliament, which led to a fragmented National Assembly [1] - The 2024 budget deficit is projected to be 5.8% of GDP, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges for the government [1] Group 1: Political Implications - Macron has given Le Cornu an additional 48 hours for final negotiations with opposition parties to resolve the deadlock [2] - The potential appointment of a new Prime Minister could mark Macron's sixth appointment in less than two years, which may be politically uncomfortable for him [2] - Macron is unlikely to resign, as it would trigger early presidential elections, which he wishes to avoid [2][3] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The ongoing political stalemate raises concerns about the 2026 budget, with economists suggesting that this year's budget may be rolled into next year's [4] - If the government collapses, France may operate under a special law, maintaining spending close to the 2025 framework, with a projected deficit of 5.0% to 5.4% of GDP [4] - Appointing a Prime Minister from a different party could lead to a reversal of previous structural reforms aimed at fiscal growth, potentially resulting in a fiscal downturn [4]