Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, analyzes the fundamental dispute between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, emphasizing the struggle for control over the value of money amid high debt levels and the inherent conflict between stimulus policies and monetary stability [1][3]. Group 1: Government vs. Federal Reserve - The U.S. government advocates for lowering real interest rates and devaluing currency to alleviate debt pressure, benefiting debtors but harming creditors [3]. - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain the independence of monetary policy, seeking a balance between economic stimulus and inflation control, reflecting a natural tension between central bank leaders and elected officials seeking re-election [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Market data indicates a loose monetary environment, with the stock market at historical highs, having risen 14% over the past year; the dollar has depreciated by 5% against major currencies, 27% against gold, and 45% against Bitcoin; credit spreads are at historical lows, and the 10-year real interest rate is slightly above 2% [3]. - Economic indicators show a relatively balanced but slightly slowing U.S. economy, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% on the rise, strong investment in AI, but weak performance in the real estate and consumer markets, alongside a generally weak global economy [3]. Group 3: Challenges in Maintaining Monetary Discipline - Maintaining monetary discipline requires tightening spending, which is often politically unpopular; historical experience shows that decision-makers frequently hesitate even in the face of "weak currency/high inflation" issues [3]. - The transition in policy during the economic cycle from 1970 to 1982 illustrates that even severe inflation faced a prolonged adjustment process, suggesting a low likelihood of tightening monetary policy in the short term [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Considerations - In the current complex global economic environment, factors such as debt, trade, politics, and geopolitical issues are likely to drive inflation higher, while technological advancements may exert deflationary pressure [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor the "weak currency" trend, indicating potential further depreciation of the dollar and the possibility of real interest rates remaining low or declining further [4].