与美联储的政策摇摆不同，瑞士央行则坚守政策稳定性。继2025年连续两次维持关键政策利率在0%不 变后，路透社调查显示，绝大多数经济学家预计瑞士央行在2026全年仍将维持利率在零水平。尽管瑞士 2025年11月CPI同比降至0%的政策目标下限，央行还将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，但明确表 态回归负利率的门槛极高，因负利率存在"不良副作用"。值得注意的是，瑞士央行在2025年三季度曾买 入7500万瑞士法郎外汇以减缓瑞郎升值节奏，但干预力度有限，未改变瑞郎的强势格局。 经济基本面与贸易环境的变化，进一步强化了美瑞汇率的分化格局。瑞士经济展现出较强韧性，2025年 三季度GDP虽受制药行业拖累收缩，但制造业和服务业增长形成有效对冲，央行预计全年增速略低于 1.5%。更关键的是，2025年11月美瑞贸易协议生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%大幅降至15%，显著缓 解出口压力，为瑞郎提供基本面支撑。同时，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标升至103.4，创下自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，预示经济前景向好。而美元端则承压明显，2025年美元指数累计下跌约 9%，2026年1月6日亚洲交易时段，美元指 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-07 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 央行明确 2026 年重点工作 观点分享： 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发 展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。 建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好两项支持资本市场的货币政 策工具作用。强化金融市场监管执法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。强化虚拟货币监 管，持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。稳步发展数字人民币。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：多重预期驱动，铜价走强。从供应端看，全球地缘政治持续动荡，引发对铜矿供应的担 忧。特朗普宣称美国企业将投资数十亿美元修复委石油基础设施，暴露资源控制意图。市场 担心其可能挤压其他国家在核心产区的权益，增加区域铜矿供应断裂的风险，从而提升全球 铜矿供应的干扰率。同时，2026 年中国进口铜精矿长单 TC 为 0 美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-07 市场情绪回暖，盘⾯表现偏强 央⾏⼯作会议强调把促进经济⾼质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，宏观情绪仍旧偏暖。铁⽔复产和节前补库预期仍存， 铁矿价格延续偏强，煤焦价格低位修复。陕西⽤电成本趋增，硅铁市 场看涨情绪升温。钢材淡季基本⾯亮点有限，成本⽀撑偏强，盘⾯价 格低位反弹。玻纯盘⾯跟随板块表现偏强。 央行工作会议强调把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，宏观情绪仍旧偏暖。铁水复产和节前补库预期仍存， 铁矿价格延续偏强，煤焦价格低位修复。陕西用电成本趋增，硅铁市 场看涨情绪升温。钢材淡季基本面亮点有限，成本支撑偏强，盘面价 格低位反弹。玻纯盘面跟随板块表现偏强。 1. 铁元素方面：港口库存持续累积，钢厂补库偏慢，1月有高炉复产 预期，铁水复产和节前补库支撑矿价，短期预计震荡运行。废钢供需 双弱，钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，但电炉利润尚 可，支撑需求，整体基本面矛盾不突出，预计价格震荡为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且钢厂复产预期仍在， 随着中下 ...

重要的消息有哪些 1．2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议强调，2026年重点抓好以下工作：继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增 长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。畅通 货币政策传导机制，发挥好政策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位 运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面，推动明示个人贷款综合融资成本。保持人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，防范汇率超调风险。 2．2026年全国外汇管理工作会议1月5日至6日在京召开。会议部署了2026年外汇管理重点工作。保障外 汇储备资产安全、流动和保值增值。推进《外汇管理条例》修订，建设更高标准国际收支统计体系，稳 步探索建设"智慧外管"，提高外汇管理数智化水平。 3．1月6日，上交所披露，2025年A股股票账户新开户累计2743.69万户，相较于2024年的2499.89万户， 同比增长9.75%。就202 ...

转自：智通财经 【智通财经1月7日早间新闻精选】 1、2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议强调，坚持 稳中求进工作总基调，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期 和跨周期调节力度；把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降 准降息等多种货币政策工具。 2、商务部公告，禁止所有两用物项对日本军事用户、军事用途，以及一 切有助于提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户用途出口。 3、为做好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上 月调研了部分银行理财公司。其调研问题包括但不限于当前制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的 障碍；以及如何能提高理财投资A股的积极性等。 4、消息人士称，鉴于日本近期恶劣表现，中国政府 正考虑针对性收紧2025年4月4日列管的中重稀土相关物项出口许可审查。 5、2025年12月A股新开户260 万户，环比11月增长9%，2025年全年已累计新开2744万户，同比增长10%。 6、两家磷酸铁锂上市公司 确认已成功提价，其中一位公司相关负责人表示，对大客户提价幅度1500至2000元/吨。 7、国投瑞银 基金管理有限公司公告，旗 ...

人民财讯1月7日电，【摘要】央行：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。脑 机接口"独角兽"强脑科技完成约20亿元融资。商务部：加强两用物项对日本出口管制。国家外汇局：推 进《外汇管理条例》修订，建设更高标准国际收支统计体系。2026年我国将推出30余项数据领域国家标 准。我国水利建设完成投资连续4年超万亿元。中国汽车流通协会：预计1月汽车市场将呈现"开门红"的 局面。国家外汇局：有序扩大跨境贸易高水平开放试点，加大力度支持跨境电商等贸易新业态发展。 ...

4．中证指数有限公司1月6日发布公告，根据指数临时调样规则及编制方案，决定调整中证1000、中证500和中证A500指数样本，于2026 年1月9日收市后生效。名单显示，芯源微调入中证500指数，明月镜片调入中证1000指数，华大智造调入中证A500指数；ST人福调出中证 500及中证A500指数，芯源微调出中证1000指数。 5．为打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点，金融监管部门在持续倾听并搜集业界意见，以求更精准发力。近日，证券时报记者独家获悉，为做 好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上月调研了部分银行理财公司。其调研问题包括但不限于当前制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例 的障碍；行业未来五年对我国相关政策制度的期待；以及如何能提高理财投资A股的积极性等。 6．国家发改委消息，自2025年12月22日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场油价小幅波动，按现行国内成品油价格机制测算，2026年1 月6日的前10个工作日平均价格与2025年12月22日前10个工作日平均价格相比，调价金额每吨不足50元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七 条规定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 1．2026年中国人 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判 英法将在俄乌和平协议达成后向乌克兰部署部队 沙特将向所有外国投资者开放金融市场 消息人士：中方正研究收紧对日稀土出口许可审查 央行定调2026年重点工作：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 市场盘点 周二，美元指数反弹，最终收涨0.28%，报98.59，创逾两周新高；美债收益率微涨，基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.169%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2 年期美债收益率收报3.473%。 受地缘政治紧张局势引发的强劲避险买盘支撑，现货黄金维持涨势，逼近4500美元关口，最终收涨1.04%，报4495.09美元/盎司；现货白银站上81美元关 口，最终收涨6.06%，报81.25美元/盎司，刷新去年12月29日以来的高位。 随着市场权衡全球原油供应充裕的前景，以及美国强行控制马杜罗后委内瑞拉原油产量的不确定性，国际原油回吐上一交易日的涨幅。WTI原油美盘持续 下挫，跌破57美元关口，最终收跌2.22%，报56.86美元/桶；布伦特原油 ...

北京时间1月7日凌晨，美股周二收高。标普500指数创历史新高，道指亦创新高并首次收在49000点之 上。能源板块继续上扬。交易员在本周多项关键数据公布前仍保持乐观。 道指涨484.90点，涨幅为0.99%，报49462.08点；纳指涨151.35点，涨幅为0.65%，报23547.17点；标普 500指数涨42.77点，涨幅为0.62%，报6944.82点。 周二盘中，道指最高上涨至49509.92点，标普500指数上涨至6948.69点，均创盘中历史新高。 上周美国抓捕委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗后，美国总统特朗普呼吁美国能源巨头投资这个石油资源丰富的国 家，推动能源板块大涨。雪佛龙和埃克森美孚均录得显著涨幅，标普500能源板块创下自7月8日以来的 最大单日涨幅。 Innovator ETFs机构研究与投资策略主管Tom O'Shea表示："从历史上看，引发重大新闻的地缘政治事件 通常会造成短期波动并导致股价下跌。然而，此次标普500指数在行动后的首个交易日却上涨，能源股 领涨，市场预期美国企业可能从委内瑞拉潜在的基础设施重建中获益。国防股、贵金属和比特币也同步 上涨，表明投资者反应复杂多元。" 周二能源股再度上涨 ...