Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains stable, with short-term rates continuing to decline, benefiting from a stable liquidity environment [5][8] - For April, the report highlights that the initial liquidity is expected to ease, with a focus on the government bond issuance plan, particularly the long-term supply schedule [5][8] - The report notes that the total issuance of local government bonds is expected to reach 31,988 billion yuan by April 5, 2026, with 16,618 billion yuan in long-term bonds, accounting for 52% of the total [12][39] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter will be significant, with a total planned issuance of 21,100 billion yuan [13][40] - It is mentioned that the issuance of replacement bonds is progressing slower than in the same period of 2025, which may lead to a higher actual issuance scale in the second quarter [13][40] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the long-term local government bonds, particularly focusing on the yield spread between 30-year and 20-year bonds [41][42] Group 3 - The report tracks the interbank certificate of deposit (CD) market, noting that the issuance increased to 7,705 billion yuan from March 23 to March 27, 2026, with a net financing of 723 billion yuan [53][54] - The report highlights that the overall issuance success rate for CDs remains high at 93%, with the highest success rate for 9-month CDs at 97% [53][54] - The report indicates that the secondary market for CDs has maintained low yields, with rates for various maturities showing slight declines [74]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 32.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 15 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [3][4]. - The interbank market is experiencing a very loose liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 falling over 3 basis points to around 1.27% [5]. - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is around 1.51%, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Government Actions - The PBOC's monetary policy committee discussed the integration of incremental and stock policies to maintain liquidity and align social financing scale with economic growth and price expectations [13]. - The Ministry of Finance announced arrangements for the issuance of various government bonds, including a 30-year bond on April 3 [13][14]. - Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that from January to February, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 12,565.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while total profits decreased by 2.0% [13]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - U.S. officials report that President Trump is willing to end military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, indicating a shift towards diplomatic pressure [16]. - The European Central Bank's council member Müller suggests that the ECB's baseline scenario may be overly optimistic, with potential interest rate increases in the coming quarters if energy prices remain high [16]. Group 4: Bond Market Developments - Agricultural Development Bank plans to issue up to 14 billion yuan in financial bonds on April 1 [18]. - Morgan Stanley has downgraded its global equity rating from overweight to neutral while upgrading U.S. Treasury and cash ratings from neutral to overweight [19]. - A series of negative events in the bond market have been reported, including downgrades and delays in ratings for various issuers [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. TACO trading has heated up again, influenced by the Middle - East situation. The LPR remains unchanged, while the reduced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty add uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. In the short term, the policy signals at the end of the month should be monitored [4]. - The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market. The decline in credit growth and insufficient household financing demand indicate that the restoration of the economy's internal driving force still takes time, and bond yields are still driven downward. However, the impact of rising inflation expectations on short - term sentiment should be noted [3]. - The front - loaded fiscal policy and government bond supply suppress the short - term sentiment of the bond market, but the central bank's liquidity support and potential subsequent overall easing will provide bottom support for the bond market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [10]. - Monthly economic indicators: The scale of social financing is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year remains at 9.00%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points and a growth rate of 2.86% [11]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 and a decline rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.8871, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.026 and a decline rate of 0.38%; SHIBOR for 7 days is 1.44, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.41%; DR007 is 1.42, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.44%; R007 is 1.55, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.44, down 0.02 with a decline rate of 1.23%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.23% [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 31, 2026, are 102.54 yuan, 106.11 yuan, 108.40 yuan, and 111.69 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.082 yuan, 0.050 yuan, 0.031 yuan, and 0.065 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 31, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 3.25 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [3]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.277%, 1.438%, 1.469%, and 1.495% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [3]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread of treasury bond futures, the spread between the current bond term and the futures cross - variety (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.) [8]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [45][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic manufacturing industry's prosperity has rebounded to the expansion range, providing some support for the market, and Chinese stock indices are relatively resistant to declines compared to other markets. However, the current market trading focus remains on geopolitical factors, fluctuating with changes in event expectations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: In March, with the acceleration of resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, both production and demand expanded simultaneously. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, reaching 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - **Geopolitical Aspect**: Trump stated that he is willing to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, believing that the war with Iran is likely to end soon. Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the current situation involves information exchange through direct channels or "regional friends", and Iran still receives information from US representative Witkoff, but this does not mean negotiations have started, and currently Iran is not in negotiations with any specific party [1] - **Index Adjustment**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8% to close at 3891.86 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.7%. Most sector indices declined, with only household appliances, banking, and food and beverage industries rising. Coal, power equipment, electronics, and basic chemical industries led the decline. The daily market turnover was 2 trillion yuan. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its first - quarter regular meeting to study the main ideas of monetary policy for the next stage, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 3.83% to 21590.63 points [2] - **Basis Recovery**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures all recovered. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased simultaneously [2] 3.2 Strategy - The recovery of domestic manufacturing prosperity to the expansion range provides support for the market, and Chinese stock indices show relative resistance to declines compared to other markets. However, the current market trading focus is still on geopolitical factors, fluctuating with changes in event expectations [3] 3.3 Charts 3.3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95, down 2.70%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4450.05, down 0.93%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2826.12, down 0.25%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7617.33, down 1.76%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7619.85, down 1.91% [13] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF was 97664, an increase of 2925; the open interest was 257846, an increase of 4198. The trading volume of IH was 47813, an increase of 1832; the open interest was 101567, an increase of 55. The trading volume of IC was 166503, an increase of 6990; the open interest was 273460, an increase of 11361. The trading volume of IM was 233473, a decrease of 3452; the open interest was 393494, an increase of 6672 [15] - **Basis**: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 16.25, an increase of 3.30; the basis of the next - month contract was - 36.65, an increase of 2.30; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 74.25, an increase of 3.70; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 156.65, an increase of 5.10. For IH, the basis of the current - month contract was - 1.72, an increase of 2.49; the basis of the next - month contract was - 4.72, an increase of 2.29; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 22.12, a decrease of 1.31; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 61.92, an increase of 0.49. For IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 41.73, an increase of 5.19; the basis of the next - month contract was - 90.93, an increase of 8.19; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 192.33, an increase of 0.79; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 361.93, an increase of 4.59. For IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 46.25, an increase of 25.88; the basis of the next - month contract was - 121.85, an increase of 22.28; the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 240.45, an increase of 18.08; the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 459.85, an increase of 25.48 [37][39] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of different contracts (next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) are provided, including the current values and changes [46][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upward. The spot import window for refined copper in China opened, but import profits significantly narrowed. Macro factors included Powell's dovish statement and news of potential easing of the Middle - East conflict between the US and Iran. US job vacancies decreased, and the euro - zone inflation rate rose. In China, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs increased, and the central bank planned to strengthen monetary policy. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories decreased, and domestic downstream restocking led to a rapid decline in social inventories. Short - term, the market is optimistic about the conflict - easing signal, but caution is still needed. It is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance of copper prices in the 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina factory inventory is at a three - month high, and with imported alumina arriving and new capacity in Guangxi coming online, the inventory is accumulating again. The high premium in the futures market has accelerated warehouse receipt registration, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East are expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has shown signs of easing, and a de - stocking inflection point may be seen in April. In the short term, due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and unfulfilled domestic demand, the pattern of weak domestic and strong international prices is difficult to reverse quickly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell by 0.75%, while Shanghai nickel rose by 0.13%. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Under the influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight, nickel ore prices are high, and nickel - iron prices and MHP discount coefficients are strengthening. However, primary nickel inventory is under pressure. With the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics, market sentiment, and the potential impact of the July quota replenishment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by macro factors, inventory decline, and strong domestic demand. Short - term operation suggestions are given [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different trends in alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy. Inventory accumulation and geopolitical factors affect the market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Opposite price trends in LME and Shanghai nickel. Cost - side factors and inventory pressure co - exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory decreases in multiple exchanges, and changes in import - related indicators [1][4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [3][5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][20]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [48][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term. The finished products are expected to continue to move with a downward - shifted center of gravity and weak operation, while the aluminum price is supported by geopolitical and fundamental factors to remain high [1][2][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - In March 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.6% year - on - year and 10.7% month - on - month. The downstream industry's start - up rate increased overall, and the proportion of molten aluminum rose by about 9.3 percentage points to 73.7%, higher than the initial expectation. The domestic aluminum processing comprehensive PMI reached 65.6%, indicating a significant rebound above the boom - bust line [2] - In March, the aluminum processing industry showed a rapid recovery trend under the combined effects of the "Golden March" peak season, post - holiday resumption of production, policy drive, and high prosperity in some emerging fields. However, factors such as high - level fluctuations in aluminum prices, differentiation in terminal demand, disturbances to exports caused by the Middle East situation, as well as scrap aluminum costs and compliance policy constraints, still limit the industry's subsequent upward space [2] - In mid - to late March, the regional differentiation in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market became more significant, with the inventory trends in East and South China deviating from the spot price difference, and regional market differentiation becoming the core feature of the current electrolytic aluminum spot market [2] - The volatile Middle East situation gives the aluminum price short - term upward momentum. The domestic inventory is still high, and the domestic price is expected to be weaker than the overseas price. The current market trading sentiment revolves around oil prices, and the Middle East geopolitics is the core variable affecting market games [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro and Financial Markets**: For stock index futures, it is advisable to wait and see regarding the US - Iran situation, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips. For bond futures, distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep strategy [17]. - **Black Metals**: In the short - term, the black metal market will maintain a volatile trend. Hold the short - wide - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and consider shorting on rallies [19]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation. Zinc and lead are recommended to be observed. Carbonate lithium will fluctuate widely in the short - term. Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate, and polysilicon will run weakly [26][30][31]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will fluctuate at a high level. Sugar prices will be under pressure and fluctuate. Egg prices are temporarily weak before the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the futures market maintains a bearish view. Apple prices of high - quality goods may be strong. Corn is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Red dates will fluctuate weakly. Pig futures can be shorted on the near - month contracts [34][37][40][41][42][44][45]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is at risk, and prices will fluctuate. Fuel oil will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level. Polyolefin prices have some support but may correct. Rubber should be cautious about going long unilaterally. Synthetic rubber should be cautious about chasing up or down. Methanol should be treated with a bullish and volatile view in the medium - to - long - term and beware of short - term corrections. Caustic soda should be treated with an intraday wide - range volatile view. Asphalt will follow the oil price. PVC may correct, and caution is needed. The polyester industry chain should take profit on previous long positions. LPG may continue to weaken. Pulp should pay attention to port inventory and price increases. Logs may see price increases, and urea should be treated with a volatile view [47][49][50][51][52][53][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][64]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - Diplomatic talks between China and Pakistan on the Middle East situation put forward five initiatives to promote peace [9]. - The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but there are still uncertainties [9][10]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee holds a quarterly meeting, emphasizing the use of various tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation [10]. - China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes return to the expansion range in March [11]. - Huawei's revenue and profit increase in 2025, with different growth rates in different business segments [12]. - The US and Israel attack an Iranian steel factory, and the Kansas Fed warns about the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation [14]. - The eurozone's CPI rises in March, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates [15]. 3.2 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares decline, and the market is affected by the US - Iran situation. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips [17]. - **Bond Futures**: The inter - bank funds are loose, and the short - term bonds are strong. The long - term bonds are affected by inflation expectations. The strategy is to distinguish the impact of funds and fundamentals and maintain a steep strategy [18]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Real estate sales are still weak, and infrastructure projects have slow progress. The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has a certain decline. The supply of steel is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakened. The black metal market will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The production of coking enterprises has increased slightly. The price of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon may see actual production cuts, but it is still in a surplus situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. Silicon iron is also recommended to short on rallies [22]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to wait and see, and glass can be bought on dips for the far - month contracts. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines [23]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The Middle East situation has a moderating trend but is still uncertain. The inventory decline supports the copper price, and it will fluctuate widely in the short - term [26]. - **Zinc**: The inventory of zinc ingots decreases slightly, and the price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead is relatively abundant, and the inventory decline slows down. It is recommended to treat it with a volatile view [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe affects the market. The price will fluctuate widely in the short - term [30]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate, and polysilicon will run weakly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon may improve, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are still in a contradiction [31][32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The price of cotton fluctuates at a high level, affected by energy prices and supply - demand expectations. The global cotton production is expected to decline, and the domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage [34][35][36]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is under pressure and fluctuates, affected by supply pressure and import cost. There are different views on the global sugar supply surplus [37][38][39]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are temporarily weak before the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and the futures market maintains a bearish view due to high inventory [40]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices may be strong, supported by low inventory and replenishment demand [41][42]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. The price is affected by policy grain supply and low inventory [42][43]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are in the consumption off - season, and the price will fluctuate weakly [44]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is strong, and the demand is weak. The near - month futures contracts can be shorted [45]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply of crude oil is at risk due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The prices of international crude oil futures fluctuate [47][48]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level, and the focus is on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [49]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefin prices have some support but may correct, and the future trend depends on the end of the war [50]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally, and pay attention to the impact of synthetic rubber and raw material supply [51]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Be cautious about chasing up or down, and pay attention to energy prices and device changes [52]. - **Methanol**: It should be treated with a bullish and volatile view in the medium - to - long - term and beware of short - term corrections. Pay attention to the supply in Iran and port inventory [53][54]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated with an intraday wide - range volatile view, affected by coal prices, supply, and exports [55]. - **Asphalt**: It will follow the oil price, and the demand is in the off - season [57]. - **PVC**: It may correct, and the key is the reduction of ethylene production and the solution of the crude oil supply problem [58][59]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Take profit on previous long positions, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts, device maintenance, and demand recovery [60]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It may continue to weaken, but the price may be relatively stronger than crude oil. The future depends on the development of the US - Iran situation [61]. - **Paper Pulp**: The port inventory increases, and the import cost decreases. Pay attention to port inventory and price increases [62]. - **Logs**: The price may increase, and pay attention to downstream demand and port arrivals [63]. - **Urea**: It should be treated with a volatile view, and the demand is strong [64][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Focus on the intensity of external risks, which may provide an unexpected difference in the aggregate demand policy in 2026. The policy goal is "stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery", and price remains an important consideration for monetary policy. Externally, since 2026, the situation from South America to the Middle East has escalated, with frequent geopolitical and trade conflicts. Internally, the impact of "external shocks" has increased, and policies are in the stage of observing the impact transmission [2]. - The macro - policy continues the requirements of "strong supply and weak demand" and "cross - cycle adjustment" in the fourth quarter. Price remains the focus of the central bank's monetary policy. In terms of monetary policy, "promoting the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost" is postponed, and "regulating the operation of the credit market and reducing the intermediate financing costs" is added. As the cycle may pick up, regulatory policies may be strengthened compared with the loosening of aggregate policies. In terms of structural policies, the support order for key areas remains unchanged, with aggregate demand remaining the top priority. Policy support for investment has increased and spread from the "two - heavy" and "two - new" areas to a wider range, which may be the area with an unexpected difference in monetary policy in 2026. The deletion of "jointly maintaining the stable development of the financial market" and "using the swap facilities of securities, funds, and insurance companies and the relending for stock repurchase and increase, and exploring a normalized institutional arrangement" may mean that monetary policy will further enhance its support for the economic structure and the real economy under the state of "optimizing tool management" [3]. - The exchange - rate policy is the same as in the third and fourth quarters. Under external conflicts, the pressure on the RMB side has been alleviated [4]. - The macro - strategy tone remains unchanged. In the second quarter, pay attention to the possibility of a shift from defense to offense. The monetary policy continues the characteristic of increasing demand for price recovery since the fourth quarter, which comes from the "cross - cycle" on the supply side and the unexpected difference in investment on the demand side. The positive judgment of the macro - strategy in 2026 is maintained. The forward - looking monetary policy may drive the market volatility to be relatively stable. In the time window of the cycle transition, maintain a neutral position on short - term equities, observe the evolution of external conflicts, and reduce the hedging ratio as the volatility rises. The interest - rate market continues to focus on the phased trading opportunities after the rapid rise of the long - end [5]. Summary by Directory 1. "Monetary Policy Committee Meeting" Comparison Analysis 1.1 First Paragraph: Monetary Policy - The first - quarter statement emphasizes that macro - policies are more proactive and effective this year, and monetary policy remains moderately loose, strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The reform effectiveness of the loan prime rate continues to be released, the role of the market - based deposit - rate adjustment mechanism is effectively played, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy is enhanced, and the social financing cost is at a historically low level. The foreign - exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, the RMB exchange rate floats bidirectionally, and remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market generally operates smoothly [12]. - The fourth - quarter statement states that macro - control efforts have been increased this year, and monetary policy is moderately loose, continuously exerting force and increasing force in a timely manner, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustments. It serves the high - quality development of the real economy and creates a suitable monetary and financial environment for the stable and sound economic development. Other contents are similar to the first - quarter statement [13]. - Huatai's analysis shows that in terms of the total amount, the first - quarter monetary policy operation has changed from "increasing intensity" to "more proactive and effective", indicating a relatively wait - and - see state in the short term. In terms of structure, "cross - cycle" adjustment is added in the first quarter, aiming to achieve "better" economic development. Despite the uncertainty of the global geopolitical situation, the domestic economic cycle is gradually recovering, and the macro - policy has shifted from "increasing force" to "support" [14]. 1.2 Second Paragraph: Situation Analysis - The first - quarter statement analyzes the domestic and international economic and financial situations. It believes that the impact of changes in the external environment has deepened, the world economic momentum is weak, geopolitical and trade conflicts occur frequently, the economic performance of major economies is differentiated, and there is uncertainty in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy operates generally stably and makes progress while maintaining stability, but still faces problems and challenges such as strong supply and weak demand and external shocks. It is necessary to continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [27]. - The fourth - quarter statement also analyzes the domestic and international economic and financial situations. It believes that the impact of changes in the external environment has deepened, the world economic growth momentum is insufficient, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies is differentiated, and there is uncertainty in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy operates generally stably and makes progress while maintaining stability, but still faces problems and challenges such as prominent contradictions between strong supply and weak demand. Other contents are similar to the first - quarter statement [28]. - Huatai's analysis indicates that in terms of the external economic and financial situation, the description has changed from "insufficient growth momentum" to "weak momentum", and the external uncertainty has increased. In terms of the internal economic situation, although the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand still exists, it has weakened marginally. The first quarter deletes the description of "prominent contradiction" and adds the description of "external shock", indicating that the domestic macro - policy needs to respond to external uncertainties in the short term. For monetary policy, the descriptions of "strengthening counter - cyclical" and "cross - cyclical adjustment" remain unchanged, indicating a transformation from total - amount to structural policies and that incremental policies are still on standby [29]. 1.3 Third Paragraph: Policy Requirements - The first - quarter statement suggests giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively using various tools, strengthening monetary - policy regulation, and grasping the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to the domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operation. It is necessary to maintain sufficient liquidity, match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and general price level. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Regulate the operation of the credit market, reduce intermediate financing costs, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism and improve the efficiency of capital use. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [42]. - The fourth - quarter statement is similar to the first - quarter statement, but it does not mention "regulating the operation of the credit market and reducing intermediate financing costs" and emphasizes "preventing exchange - rate overshooting risks" [43]. - Huatai's analysis shows that the central bank's monetary policy remains in the "discretionary" stage started in the fourth quarter. The statement of "promoting the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost" is postponed. As the inflation index begins to gradually recover upward, the actual financing cost is in the process of repair, and the urgency of actively reducing the financing cost through policies has decreased. The new statement of "regulating the operation of the credit market and reducing intermediate financing costs" is added. In 2026, the banking industry has been under high - pressure supervision, with a large number of regulatory penalties and high fines, especially in the credit business [44]. 1.4 Fourth Paragraph: Policy Reform - The first - quarter statement points out that it is necessary to guide large - scale banks to play the main role in financial services for the real economy, promote small and medium - sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, and enhance the capital strength of banks. Make good use of various structural monetary - policy tools, optimize tool management, do a solid job in the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. Continuously do a good job in financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Maintain the stable operation of the financial market. Effectively promote the high - level two - way opening of finance and improve the economic and financial management ability and risk - prevention ability under open conditions [54]. - The fourth - quarter statement is similar to the first - quarter statement, but it adds "jointly maintaining the stable development of the financial market" and "using the swap facilities of securities, funds, and insurance companies and the relending for stock repurchase and increase, and exploring a normalized institutional arrangement" [55]. - Huatai's analysis shows that the support order for key areas remains unchanged. The policy support for investment will also be maintained in 2026 to improve the investment structure. The use scope of structural policy tools will be expanded in 2026. The policy's active structural support for foreign trade will decline. The deletion of some statements may mean that monetary policy will further enhance its support for the economic structure and the real economy. The focus of financial - stability policies has been further expanded [56]. 1.5 Fifth Paragraph: Policy Guidance - The first - quarter statement emphasizes guiding by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the National Two Sessions. According to the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly grasp the primary task of high - quality development, solidly promote Chinese - style modernization, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. Put strengthening the domestic economic cycle in a more prominent position, coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand, enhance the forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of macro - policies, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, improve the increment, and revitalize the stock, and continuously consolidate and expand the momentum of stable economic development [64]. - The fourth - quarter statement is similar to the first - quarter statement, but it does not mention the National Two Sessions [65]. - Huatai's analysis shows that the first - quarter monetary - policy requirements continue the fourth - quarter requirements. The macro - policy has shifted from "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" to "forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated". The focus of the policy in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, and the statement of "optimizing supply" is added, reflecting the overall "stable" policy tone [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price may be slightly weak in the short - term due to the possible inflow of BHP iron ore at ports, but it is expected to strengthen again after the short - term impact fades as downstream demand recovers and steel mills maintain a stable resumption of production rhythm [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1行情回顾 - On March 31, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures showed a weak performance. It oscillated downward after the opening and then oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 808.0 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [7]. - The prices of main iron ore contracts on March 31: RB2605 closed at 3121 yuan/ton, down 0.48%; HC2605 closed at 3294 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; SS2605 closed at 14160 yuan/ton, down 1.29%; I2605 closed at 808 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [5]. - The black - series futures' long - short position changes on March 31: For I2605, the top 20 long positions decreased by 9,755, the top 20 short positions decreased by 12,684, and the long - short difference was 2,929 with a deviation of 1.24% [8]. 3.1.2现货市场动态与技术面走势 - In the spot market on March 31, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 - 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract continued to decline, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract has been narrowing for 10 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.1.3后市展望 - News: Affected by Tropical Cyclone Narelle, four ports of Rio Tinto were closed since March 24, and three of them resumed loading on March 28. On March 30, Rio Tinto announced that the iron ore port operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia had fully resumed. The cyclones in February and recently are expected to affect about 8 million tons of iron ore shipments, and the company plans to make up for half of it while maintaining the 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance of 323 - 338 million tons [10][11]. - Fundamentals: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, down 5.956 million tons to 18.627 million tons, mainly due to the decline in Australian shipments which decreased by 8.756 million tons to 10.338 million tons, hitting a new low since late February 2025. Shipments are expected to gradually recover this week. The arrival volume last week increased by 1.547 million tons to 24.263 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in the past four weeks decreased by 2.92% compared with the previous four weeks, and the arrival volume is expected to rise first and then fall. On the demand side, affected by production restrictions of some steel mills during the Two Sessions, the daily average hot metal output decreased significantly before. Since mid - March, the resumption of production of steel mills has accelerated, and the daily average hot metal output last week rose to over 2.3 million tons, reaching 2.3109 million tons. Currently, the profit performance is good, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil blast furnace production are profitable. With the arrival of the peak demand season, the hot metal output is expected to have further growth space. In terms of inventory, the available days of inventory last week increased by 2 days to 23 days and are expected to remain around 20 - 23 days. The port inventory decreased slightly last week but still remained at a relatively high level of 170 million tons. Considering that the BHP iron ore ban may have been relaxed, the short - term inventory may further decline but is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [11]. 3.2行业要闻 - Powell said it's not time to determine the impact of the Iran war on the economy; energy price shocks are often short - term; it's difficult for monetary policy to hedge supply - side price pressures in real - time, and usually such shocks are ignored, but it's crucial to closely monitor inflation expectations; long - term inflation expectations remain stable; tariffs have a one - time impact on inflation; he reaffirmed the commitment to bring inflation back to 2%; he supported QE, saying that extensive research shows that buying long - term assets can lower interest rates; the Fed is closely monitoring private credit and there is no systemic risk; large language models will replace a large number of automatable jobs, and the current employment environment for young people is difficult but the prospects are optimistic; he advised the next - term Wash to avoid using monetary policy tools for other purposes. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Powell said the Fed can ignore oil price shocks but warned that patience has an end [13]. 3.3数据概览 - The report presents multiple data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and desulfurization volume, the tax - free hot metal cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [15][19][22][23][28][29][35][37][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range in March 2026, with values of 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee held a quarterly meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, use various tools comprehensively, and strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Trump said he was willing to end military operations against Iran, and both the US and Iran expressed a willingness to end the war under certain conditions [2]. - On Tuesday, A - share major indices closed down across the board, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline at 2.7%, the STAR 50 down 2.59%, and the CSI 300 down 0.93%. The market turnover was 2.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - The global market showed obvious differentiation. US stocks rebounded strongly, European markets rose slightly, and most Asia - Pacific markets fell [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.62% to 99.88, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.41% to 6.8879. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose slightly by 0.52BP to 1.812%, and the 7 - day pledged repo weighted interest rate dropped to 1.423%, a daily change of - 0.63BP [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs A - share Market - A - share total market capitalization was 108.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.29 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. The cumulative turnover this year was 144.51 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 25,805.28 billion yuan. The PE (TTM) was 22.42x, and the PB (MRQ) was 5.66x [10]. - Most A - share indices closed down on Tuesday. The Wanquan A fell 1.42%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.80%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81%, etc. [10]. - The market turnover was 20,059 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 3.79%. The market financing balance was 25,986 billion yuan as of March 30, 2026 [10][12][14]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan primary industries, household appliances (+1.57%), banks (+0.72%), and food and beverage (+0.23%) rose against the trend, while power equipment (-3.21%), coal (-3.67%), and electronics (-2.71%) led the decline [3]. - The top three industries in terms of daily net inflow of funds were public utilities, light manufacturing, and automobiles. The top three industries with net inflow of funds at the end of the day were non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and beauty care [19]. - The top three themes in terms of increase were automobile whole - vehicle selection (+2.29%), CRO (+1.83%), and new energy vehicle whole - vehicle [19]. Global Important Markets - US stocks rebounded strongly, with the Nasdaq up 3.83%, the S&P 500 up 2.91%, and the Dow Jones up 2.49%. European markets rose slightly, with the French CAC40, German DAX, and UK FTSE 100 all up about 0.5%. Most Asia - Pacific markets fell, except for the Australian S&P 200 which rose slightly [3]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fell 0.62% to 99.88, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.41% to 6.8879. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.52BP to 1.812%, and the 7 - day pledged repo weighted interest rate dropped 0.63BP to 1.423% [4][6].