Core Viewpoint - The ammonium sulfate market is experiencing a rebound, with prices rising significantly, while urea prices are declining, indicating a structural shift in the nitrogen fertilizer industry towards quality and efficiency rather than mere expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The mainstream transaction price of ammonium sulfate has increased to 840-900 RMB per ton, with high-end prices exceeding 1000 RMB, while urea prices have dropped to around 1600 RMB [1]. - China's ammonium sulfate production capacity is projected to reach 3,800 million tons by 2025 and exceed 5,500 million tons by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% [2]. - The market share of the top five ammonium sulfate producers is expected to grow from 38% in 2022 to about 45% by 2025, and potentially reach 52% by 2030 [2]. Group 2: Demand Structure - The demand for ammonium sulfate is characterized by stable agricultural demand (65%-70% of total) and accelerating industrial demand, which is expected to rise from 22% in 2023 to 30% by 2025, and potentially reach 45%-50% by 2030 [3]. - The lithium battery sector is a significant growth driver, with a 25% increase in ammonium sulfate used for lithium battery precursor materials in 2023 [3]. - The textile dyeing industry is also expected to see steady growth, with consumption projected to reach 600,000 tons by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Export Position - In the first half of 2025, ammonium sulfate exports reached 8.3341 million tons, making it the top fertilizer export by volume, with an export value of 1.284 billion USD, a 35.2% increase from the previous year [4]. - Brazil has replaced Vietnam as the largest export destination, accounting for 26.53% of imports in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 73.85% [4]. - The concentration of export markets is increasing, which is expected to enhance China's international pricing power [4]. Group 4: Opportunities and Challenges - The ammonium sulfate industry is poised for growth driven by favorable policies, demand from agriculture modernization, and the rapid development of the new energy sector [5][6]. - The shift towards high-end production and green circular economy practices is being encouraged by policies, with a projected industry growth rate of around 8% annually over the next five years [6]. - However, the industry faces risks related to environmental regulations and international market uncertainties, including potential trade policy changes that could impact competitiveness [6].