Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff risks on China's major foreign trade provinces and their strategies to cope with the challenges posed by "Trade Conflict 2.0" [1][3][5] Group 1: Export Performance and Economic Impact - The five major foreign trade provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Shanghai) account for nearly 70% of China's total export value, making their export performance a key indicator of national trade dynamics [3] - Since 2024, the export growth rate of these provinces has been significantly higher than that of other provinces, but the gap is narrowing, indicating a weakening "export grabbing" momentum [5] - Guangdong has experienced the slowest overall export growth among the five provinces, which correlates with its underwhelming economic performance in the first quarter [5] Group 2: Resilience Against External Shocks - The article evaluates the resilience of the five provinces against upcoming foreign trade shocks based on three factors: export product diversification, reliance on U.S. exports, and internal demand strength [8] - Shandong and Zhejiang are identified as having higher export product diversification, which may help them mitigate export downturn pressures in the second quarter [8] - The reliance on U.S. exports has decreased across all provinces since the first trade conflict in 2018, with Shandong having the lowest dependency, thus facing less export downturn pressure [11][12] Group 3: Internal Demand and Policy Responses - The provinces with higher export ratios have increasingly relied on domestic consumption to support economic growth, especially in light of reduced export contributions [12] - Recent consumer spending growth rates show that Jiangsu and Shandong outperformed the national average, indicating stronger internal demand resilience [12] - The effectiveness of upcoming consumption-boosting policies in provinces like Guangdong and Shanghai will be crucial in countering the economic downturn caused by export challenges [14]