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美国关税冲击台湾传统产业 台积电亦面临困局
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-20 23:20
Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a temporary 20% tariff on Taiwan, significantly impacting traditional industries, particularly machinery and chemicals, which are crucial to Taiwan's export-driven economy [1] - The second quarter saw a decline in traditional industry output, while the information electronics sector remained robust, indicating a structural imbalance exacerbated by tariffs [1] - Major companies in the machinery sector, such as Baide Machinery and Cheng Tai Machinery, are implementing reduced work schedules due to operational pressures, with warnings of potential large-scale layoffs if conditions do not improve [1] Group 2 - The automotive market in Taiwan is experiencing a downturn, attributed to consumer concerns over tariff-induced price fluctuations, leading to a cautious market atmosphere [2] - TSMC, a key player in the semiconductor industry, is facing challenges as the U.S. considers direct investments in companies benefiting from the "Chip Act," causing a significant drop in TSMC's stock price by 4.22% [2] - The semiconductor sector is under threat from potential U.S. tariffs of up to 300%, aimed at encouraging domestic investment, which could lead to a restructuring of Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain [2] Group 3 - Growing skepticism towards the U.S. is evident among the Taiwanese public, as concerns rise over whether Taiwan is merely being used as a bargaining chip in U.S. trade policies [3] - The Taiwanese government's handling of tariff negotiations has led to a trust deficit, as initial communications downplayed the actual impact of the tariffs, causing suspicion among industry stakeholders and the public [3]
受美关税冲击 台湾无薪假人数创2025年新高
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-18 12:04
受美关税冲击 台湾无薪假人数创2025年新高 中新社台北8月18日电 (记者 朱贺)台当局劳动事务主管部门18日公布统计数据,全台有191家单位、 3934人实施减班休息(又称无薪假),创2025年新高。其中,受美关税影响者达73家、2388人,人数占比 超60%。 该部门官员黄琦雅表示,实施无薪假的单位较8月初增加1家、人数增加493人,主因美关税冲击下出口 订单缩减。制造业受影响最大,有146家厂商、3590人受波及;其中,一家汽机车车灯业者有412人实施 无薪假,因美国为其主要市场。 美国自8月7日起对台征收20%暂时性关税,并采用"原关税率叠加"计算,致台湾产业受剧烈冲击。据台 湾人力资源机构104人力银行15日公布的调查结果,有65%的企业认为关税与经济波动已对公司营运造 成影响,38%的企业已启动或评估组织调整。 台湾商业总会理事长许舒博近日指出,台湾的产业经济以中小企业为主,高度依赖外销订单,关税势必 对产业供应链造成庞大压力,同时牵动就业市场,直接影响民众生活,建议台当局提出协助企业及劳工 的因应方案及相关补贴措施,以确保业者和劳工生计。(完) 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:万可义 广告等商务合作, ...
美国通胀:PPI会如何“搅局”?
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-17 10:47
Group 1: Inflation Insights - The July CPI data showed stagnation, while the PPI unexpectedly rose by 0.9% month-on-month, indicating potential inflationary pressures[2] - Trade services were the main driver of the PPI increase, suggesting that traders may be raising prices to enhance profit margins in response to tariff impacts[15] - The transmission of PPI to CPI is expected to have a time lag, with wholesale trade growth contributing more significantly than retail trade[17] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The decision to lower rates in September is seen as a political issue, while the extent of the cut is viewed as an economic question[3] - Current data trends suggest a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with expectations leaning towards two rate cuts within the year[3] - The anticipated rate cut may not be a solution but rather the beginning of new challenges, particularly concerning persistent inflation[26] Group 3: Economic Risks - Risks include aggressive tariff policies leading to stagflation or recession, with dual pressures from debt burdens and monetary tightening[27] - The potential for tariff expansions to exceed expectations could result in a significant slowdown in global economic growth[27] - Geopolitical tensions may increase asset price volatility, exacerbating market fluctuations[27]
1.2%!日本二季度GDP超预期增长
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-15 01:56
Group 1 - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.0%, significantly above economists' expectations of 0.4% [1][2] - The first quarter's GDP was revised from a contraction to a growth of 0.6% [1] - Year-on-year GDP growth for Q2 was 1.2%, down from 1.8% in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand was the main driver of the strong performance, with corporate investment rising by 1.3%, exceeding the expected 0.7% [4] - Private consumption, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, increased by 0.2%, supported by robust wage growth from this year's salary negotiations [4] Group 3 - Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth, with actual export values increasing by 2% despite higher tariff barriers [5] - Inbound tourism also bolstered net exports, with foreign tourist spending in Japan rising by 18% [5] Group 4 - The strong GDP data supports the Bank of Japan's path towards policy normalization, with expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the near future [6] - Approximately 42% of economists anticipate action from the Bank of Japan in October, despite expectations to maintain rates in the upcoming September meeting [6]
【环球财经】巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至一年来新高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 01:37
分析人士认为,受美国公布通胀数据低于预期影响,美元对投资者吸引力下降,资金流向风险较高的货 币,包括雷亚尔和其他新兴市场货币。衡量美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数当日下跌0.19%至 98.308。 新华财经圣保罗8月12日电(记者杨家和)巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率12日大幅上扬1.06%,收盘报1美元兑 5.3864雷亚尔,创下自2024年6月14日以来的最高水平,当时汇率为1美元兑5.3812雷亚尔。同日,巴西 股指Ibovespa上涨1.69%,收于137913.68点。 (文章来源:新华财经) 在国内市场方面,投资者还关注巴西政府应对美国关税冲击的计划。美国总统特朗普此前宣布对部分巴 西出口产品加征50%关税。巴西财政部长阿达表示,政府应对方案可能包括信贷支持、推迟征税、政府 采购出口产品以及促进出口的结构性改革。 阿达11日透露,原定13日与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特举行的视频会谈被美方取消,市场对此反应有 限,相关人士认为关税谈判本质上是政治问题,短期内难有突破。 ...
业绩预期不佳 “洞洞鞋鼻祖”卡洛驰卖不动了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 08:25
中国商报(记者 于佳鑫 文/图)继2025年第一季度撤回全年财务展望后,近日,"洞洞鞋鼻祖"卡洛驰母公司最新披露的第二季度财报再度展现了 不安的信号——虽然第二季度公司收入实现同比增长,但净利润出现大幅亏损,且第三季度收入预计下降9%至11%。这也是近两年来该公司给出 的财务展望中,预计收入下滑幅度最明显的一次。 曾经风靡一时的洞洞鞋"卖不动"了吗? 另一专注于舒适鞋类的品牌HEYDUDE在报告期内的收入同比下降3.9%至1.9亿美元,按固定汇率计算下降4.2%,其中DTC收入增长7.6%至9000 万美元,按固定汇率计算增长7.5%;批发收入下降12.4%至1亿美元,按固定汇率计算下降12.8%。 与营收增长形成反差的是,财报数据显示,卡洛驰第二季度净利润亏损4.92亿美元,而2024年同期净利润为2.29亿美元,亏损主要源于 HEYDUDE品牌相关的非现金减值损失。 2022年2月,卡洛驰公司完成了对HEYDUDE品牌的收购。2023年,其收入实现正增长,但2024年以来,该品牌收入整体呈下滑趋势,去年全年 收入下降13.2%至8.24亿美元,今年第一季度收入下降9.8%至1.76亿美元,按固定汇率计算下 ...
就业疲软阴影笼罩 今晚美国CPI只要不爆表 9月降息大势难以逆转
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-12 07:57
美国7月CPI今晚来袭,全球市场正屏息以待,普遍预期通胀小幅回升,但不足以改变美联储9月降息路 径。 美东时间周二早8:30(北京时间周二晚8:30),美国劳工统计局将公布7月消费者价格指数(CPI)。根 据彭博汇总的共识预期: 美国7月CPI环比上涨0.2%,较6月下滑0.1个百分点,同比从前月的2.7%升至2.8%;核心CPI(剔除食品 和能源)环比上涨0.3%,较6月上行0.1个百分点,同比涨幅扩大至3.0%,创下自2月份以来的最高纪 录。 | | | Headline | Core | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | m/m | y/y | m/m | y/y | | Bank of America | 0.24% | 2.8% | 0.31% | 3.1% | | Barclays | 0.24% | 2.7% | 0.29% | 3.0% | | BMO Capital Markets | 0.26% | 2.8% | 0.28% | 3.1% | | BNP Paribas | 0.26% | 2.8% | 0.32% | 3.0% | | Citig ...
美国关税重压下,台湾传统制造业沦为最大输家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 11:10
Group 1 - The announcement of tariffs by Trump in April has placed Taiwan in a challenging position despite its perceived advantages in negotiations [1] - TSMC's investments in the US may shield it from 100% tariffs, but this does not guarantee a trade agreement for Taiwan or protect its economy from other tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - Taiwan's economy is heavily export-oriented, with the US being its largest buyer, and it exports significant amounts of semiconductor components and related electronic parts [1] Group 2 - Traditional manufacturing in Taiwan is facing significant challenges, with the New Taiwan Dollar's appreciation adding pressure on factory owners [3] - The uncertainty in the current situation has led some companies to doubt their ability to sustain operations in the coming months, with reports of clients either halting orders or requesting delivery delays [3] - Manufacturers are experiencing the impact of a 20% tariff on their products, alongside a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imposed by the Trump administration [1][3]
关税冲击来了:欧洲对美出口骤降,汽车出口暴跌35%
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-10 10:03
Group 1 - The core impact of the tariffs is evident, with a significant decline in U.S. imports from Europe, dropping from $56.6 billion in May to $45.2 billion in June, marking the lowest level since February 2024 [2] - The automotive sector is the hardest hit, with a year-on-year decline of 36% in European exports to the U.S. in June due to a 25% additional tariff [3][6] - Other sectors also experienced declines, with transportation equipment and chemicals seeing year-on-year drops of 30% and 19% respectively, while some sectors like base metals and agricultural products remained resilient due to tariff exemptions [7] Group 2 - The report warns that the observed decline is still mild compared to the potential overall losses predicted by models, indicating that more severe impacts are yet to come [4][9] - Starting August 1, the average tariff rate on European exports to the U.S. increased from 12% in June to 16%, with the current 15% rate being more damaging than the previous 10% during the tariff suspension period [11] - The negative impacts of tariffs may have a lagging effect, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, where a significant drop in exports is anticipated as inventory is consumed and tariffs potentially rise further [11]
上金所,最新风险提示
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 10:21
Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notification on August 8 to enhance market risk control due to various factors causing instability, urging members to improve risk awareness and maintain market stability [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 8, during the Asian trading session, COMEX gold prices surged to a historical high of $3534.1 per ounce before experiencing a decline after news regarding U.S. tariffs on gold bars [1] - Following a White House official's statement on August 8, which indicated plans to clarify misinformation regarding tariffs on gold bars, COMEX gold prices fell, closing at $3458.2 per ounce, up 0.13% [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Reports indicated that the U.S. government imposed tariffs on 1-kilogram gold bars, a common trading form in the global gold futures market, which surprised market participants who expected exemptions [1] - Morgan Stanley's former precious metals trader noted that the imposition of tariffs on gold was unexpected, as gold typically circulates among central banks and reserves without such impacts [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Developments - The recent nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump is seen as a significant development, potentially influencing trade policy during Trump's second term [1] - Morgan Stanley's research predicted a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by three additional cuts, citing signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and uncertainties surrounding the Fed's leadership [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% during its last monetary policy meeting on July 30, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate for the Fed chair position [1]