为什么人民币汇率升值加速？20260227 摘要 2025 年中国形成"贸易顺差+结售汇顺差"的双顺差格局，全年出口同 比增长 5.5%，贸易顺差突破 1 万亿美元创历史新高，结售汇顺差在 1 月和 12 月均达到约 1,000 亿美元量级，为人民币汇率走强提供外汇供 给基础。 美元信用体系受地缘博弈、金融制裁及美国财政扩张等因素扰动，国际 公信力趋势性下降，市场对美国债务可持续性及美元中长期信用产生疑 虑，促使部分主权资金减少美元资产持有。 市场预期已形成"关税冲击更易发生、但情绪更快修复"的框架，降低 了关税对人民币汇率情绪冲击的持续放大效应。2026 年美国最高法院 裁定特朗普政府加征关税违法，虽后续重新征税，但整体关税水平较裁 定前仍下降约 10%。 特朗普访华预期强化中美关系短期稳定，官方明确双方保持沟通，并预 期在重要国际场合继续会面，使得市场风险偏好改善，对人民币汇率形 成支撑。 2025 年末以来 A 股表现偏强，2026 年初至今外资总体呈持续流入，海 外对中国资产配置需求增强，对人民币形成顺周期支撑。 Q&A 2025 年 4 月以来人民币汇率与美元指数相关性明显弱化、呈现相对独立的偏 强 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月24日 黄金 1、基本面：美国最高法院裁决IEEPA关税违法特朗普新加征关税税率从10%提高至 15%，金价大幅走高；美国三大股指震荡收跌，欧洲三大股指震荡收涨；美债收益率 震荡收跌，10年期美债收益率跌8.2个基点报4.031%；美元指数涨0.72%报97.74，离 岸人民币对美元大幅升值报6.8894；COMEX黄金期货涨5.36%报5247美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1110.1，现货1107，基差-3.1，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日 ...

（原标题：美股前瞻 | 美伊局势紧张 美国GDP与PCE数据来袭 BlueOwl(OWL.US)限赎引发流动性担 忧） 盘前市场动向 1. 2月20日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货微跌。截至发稿，纳指期货现跌0.01%，标普500指数期 货跌0.02%，道指期货跌0.03%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.37%，英国富时100指数涨0.63%，法国CAC40指数涨0.85%，欧洲斯托 克50指数涨0.45%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌0.26%，报66.23美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.27%，报71.47美元/桶。 市场消息 特朗普对伊朗下"最后通牒"!中东局势骤然紧张。随着美国总统特朗普就伊朗核问题谈判设定最后期 限，地缘政治风险急剧升温。据报道，特朗普表示，伊朗最多有10至15天时间就其核计划达成协议，否 则将面临后果。此番言论标志着美国对伊朗的施压显著升级。与此同时，美国正在中东地区进行自2003 年伊拉克战争前以来最大规模的军事部署，这被市场解读为为潜在的持续军事行动保留选项。作为传统 避险资产的黄金同样表现抢眼，价格在每盎司5000美元附近持稳。 美国四季度GDP初值公布在即，市场普遍 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 报告显示，美国中型企业月度关税支出从2025年4月开始急剧增加，8月达到4月之前水平的三倍左右， 随后在高位盘整。 人民财讯2月20日电， 摩根大通 研究所19日发布报告说，美国中型企业受到关税严重冲击，自2025年初 以来其月度关税支出已增至原来的三倍。 报告说，总体而言，在美国所有中型企业的国际对外支出中，关税支出占比约为10%；而对其中缴纳关 税的美国中型企业来说，关税支出占其国际对外支出的比例则上升至约15%。 ...

新华财经纽约2月19日电（记者刘亚南）摩根大通集团研究所19日发布的研究报告显示，美国中型企业 受关税冲击严重，自2025年初以来月度关税支出已增至原来的三倍。 该报告公布的信息显示，美国中型企业月度关税支出从2025年4月开始快速增加，直至8月达到4月之前 的三倍左右水平，随后在高位盘整。 （文章来源：新华财经） 通过跟踪企业国内和国际支付数据，该报告发现，2025年总国际支付数据的相对稳定掩盖了关税对中型 企业的冲击。中型企业关税相关成本支出大幅增加，国际支付也经历显著的重新定向。 报告认为，中型企业的重新配置可能逐渐进行而非选择立即从全球活动中撤出。贸易量本身可能低估了 关税对那些规模不足以吸收持续成本增加企业的短期影响。关税的更长期影响可能依赖于成本上涨和政 策不确定性是否会促使企业决策发生更多永久性改变，贸易政策改变更广泛影响的显现可能有显著的滞 后。 报告显示，美国企业关税支出大约相当于其国际对外支出金额的10%左右，而中型企业关税支出占这部 分企业国际对外支出金额的比例约为15%。 ...

社交平台Pinterest(PINS.US)夜盘大跌17.4%，报15.32美元。 消息面上，Pinterest公布，去年第四季度营收同比增长14%至13.2亿美元，略低于市场预期的13.3亿美 元；每股收益为0.67美元，符合市场预期。展望首季，公司预计调整后EBITDA将介于1.66亿至1.86亿美 元之间，低于市场预期的2.05亿美元。Pinterest高管表示，关税冲击持续对其顶级客户的广告支出造成 不成比例的影响。(格隆汇) ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Europe regarding tariffs and trade, particularly concerning Greenland, could escalate into a new trade war, significantly impacting global GDP growth and trade dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Oxford Economic Institute's model indicates that the trade conflict could reduce global GDP growth to 2.6%, down from the stable range of 2.8%-2.9% observed over the past three years [1]. - The potential tariffs could lead to a 0.3 percentage point decrease in GDP growth for the U.S., Eurozone, and the UK, with the U.S. GDP growth expected to drop to 2.3% by 2026 [3][4]. - The trade conflict is projected to have a more prolonged and severe impact on Europe compared to the U.S., particularly affecting open economies like Germany [3]. Group 2: Tariff Dynamics - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on $930 billion worth of U.S. goods, which represents 28% of the total U.S. exports to the EU in 2024 [1]. - If the U.S. implements the proposed tariffs, the overall tariff increase would reach 2.8 percentage points, raising the average tariff rate to 16.8%, the highest since spring of the previous year [5]. - The Oxford Economic Institute suggests that the tariffs could lead to a significant reduction in U.S. exports to targeted countries, estimating a 50% decrease compared to pre-2025 levels [5]. Group 3: Political and Legal Considerations - Discussions are ongoing regarding the legal basis for the U.S. tariffs, with the U.S. Supreme Court set to rule on the International Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could influence tariff assumptions [7]. - The potential for a compromise exists, with the U.S. possibly delaying the February tariff increase while maintaining the threat of June tariffs [6]. - The U.S. Geological Survey has identified 60 minerals in Greenland that are crucial for U.S. economic and national security, complicating the geopolitical landscape surrounding the territory [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the storage industry due to tariff impacts and market uncertainties, suggesting a "Hold" rating for investments in this sector [7][20][36]. Core Insights - Tariffs have become a dominant variable affecting the entire storage industry chain, with the U.S. imposing tariffs as high as 125%, impacting prices of DRAM modules and SSDs [7]. - Major manufacturers like Micron and SK Hynix are adjusting strategies by raising prices and shifting focus towards high-end products such as HBM and DDR5, anticipating a significant increase in HBM demand [7][36]. - The market is experiencing short-term price volatility due to tariffs and supply-demand tensions, with SSD and DRAM prices fluctuating as demand remains uncertain [7][36]. - The rise of AI applications is driving demand for high-performance memory, despite an overall weak smartphone market [7][36]. - Various semiconductor policies are being implemented across the U.S., South Korea, and China, affecting the industry's operational landscape [7]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - In April, China's manufacturing PMI index was at 49%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity, while the U.S. PMI was at 48.7%, reflecting ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector [8][9][11]. Upstream Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts a three-phase impact from tariffs on the storage industry, with the first phase leading to price increases due to stockpiling [20][22]. - The current phase is characterized by short-term price increases that are not sustainable, with economic recession risks looming [20][22]. - Major manufacturers are reducing production of older process technologies, focusing on advanced products to enhance profitability [26][30]. Passive Components - Major passive component manufacturers are raising prices due to strong demand and rising costs, with expectations of double-digit percentage increases [38]. Module Manufacturer Dynamics - Companies like Nanya and Adata are seeing revenue growth driven by AI applications, with expectations of improving DRAM contract prices in the upcoming quarters [39][40]. - The overall market is experiencing a price increase trend as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [43]. Domestic Spot Market - The storage market in April was characterized by tariffs, price increases, stockpiling, and a cautious market outlook, with significant fluctuations in SSD and DRAM prices [49][51]. - The market is expected to stabilize once tariff policies are fully established, allowing for a return to normal supply-demand dynamics [66].

Group 1 - President Trump's announcement of escalating tariffs on eight European nations triggered $875 million in crypto liquidations within 24 hours, with Bitcoin dropping 3% to $92,000 as traders reduced risk exposure [1] - The affected nations include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, facing 10% tariffs starting February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1 [2] - The tariff announcement led to significant liquidation in derivative markets, with $788 million from long positions and only $83 million from shorts, indicating traders were caught off guard by geopolitical risks [3] Group 2 - Major exchanges experienced significant liquidations, with Hyperliquid leading at $262 million, followed by Bybit at $239 million and Binance at $172 million, with long positions making up over 90% of forced closures [4] - Despite the tariff shock, Bitcoin futures open interest showed signs of recovery, although renewed pressure is anticipated due to the geopolitical situation [4][5] - US stock futures fell 0.7% for the S&P 500 and 1% for the Nasdaq, while European equity futures dropped 1.1%, reflecting a risk-off sentiment across asset classes [5] Group 3 - Gold prices surged 1.5% to record highs as investors sought safety, while the dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen [6] - Analysts suggest that the delayed implementation of the tariffs may lead to a more measured investor response, potentially easing volatility as markets digest the announcement [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on several European allies to pressure Denmark into selling Greenland, which could negatively impact a range of luxury goods and specialty products [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Consumer Goods - Popular consumer goods shipped across the Atlantic that may be affected include French wine and cheese, Norwegian salmon, and Bang & Olufsen speakers assembled in Denmark [1][2]. - Other notable brands potentially impacted by the tariffs include Leica, Louis Vuitton, Le Creuset, and Hermes, with most of their core production still based in Europe [1][2]. Group 2: High-Value Manufactured Goods - Europe is a major supplier of high-value manufactured goods, with Germany known for Volkswagen, Audi, and Porsche; Sweden for Volvo; and France for Airbus aircraft [1][2]. - Although many components are globally sourced, final assembly and precision engineering typically occur on the European continent [1][2]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The U.S. imports a significant amount of pharmaceuticals from Europe, and the pharmaceutical industry has been preparing for tariffs since the U.S. government threatened to impose up to 100% tariffs on branded drugs last year [1][2]. - During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. imported vaccines produced in Belgium and Germany [1][2]. Group 4: Tariff Implementation Timeline - Trump announced that starting February 1, goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland will be subject to a 10% tariff, which will increase to 25% on June 1 [1][2].