墨西哥《经济学家报》10月7日报道，世界贸易组织最新报告指出，关税上调对世界经济的影响将在 2026年显现。报告预测，全球货物贸易在今年第一季度同比增长5.5%，第二季度增长4.3%，上半年增 长4.9%。上半年贸易的强劲表现推动世贸组织将2025年货物贸易增长预期从2025年4月的-0.2%提升至 2.4%。但与此同时，世贸组织也将2026年全球贸易增长预测从2.5%下调至0.5%。根据报告，预计2025 年北美地区货物贸易进口和出口将分别下降4.9%和3.1%，2026年将分别下降5.8%和1.0%，因此北美地 区对2025和2026年的全球贸易贡献率将为负值，亚洲地区将对全球贸易增长贡献最大，欧洲及其他地区 也将对全球贸易增长做出一定正向贡献。 ...

越南第三季度经济增长加速至三年来最快水平，强劲的制造业和商业活动帮助该国经济有效缓冲了新关税措施带来的初步冲击。 制造业的强劲表现是此次经济扩张的核心驱动力。国家统计局负责人Nguyen Thi Huong在发布会上表示，由于企业在美国关税最后期限前加紧生 产，制造业活动持续增长。数据公布后，越南基准的VN指数周一上午一度上涨2.6%，创下自8月26日以来的最大单日涨幅。 胡志明市证券公司首席经济学家Pham Vu Thang Long表示： "本季度的增长率相当积极，反映出越南超出预期的出口韧性，工业产出同样超出了预期。但我们仍需密切关注建筑业和服务业，与第 二季度相比，这些行业的增长有所放缓。" 关税挑战与政策应对 根据越南国家统计局周一公布的数据，今年7月至9月期间，该国GDP同比增长8.23%，明显快于调查分析师7.15%的预估中值。同时，第二季度的 GDP增长率也从此前的7.96%向上修正至8.19%。 据新华社此前报道，美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，并表示，越南所有对美出口商品将面临至少20%关税，并对美国"完全开放市 场"。 尽管季度数据表现亮眼，但官方对全年目标持谨慎态度。Nguyen ...

经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，美国政府新一轮加征关税措施10月1日起陆续生效，涉及的产品包 括进口木材、橱柜、药品等。此外，美国总统特朗普日前还威胁将对所有在美国之外制作的电影征收 100%的关税。对此，美国多位相关行业人士表示，关税将对美国多个行业造成冲击，而关税带来的额 外成本最终还是由美国消费者来承担。 ...

Core Insights - The Canadian steel and related manufacturing industry has experienced significant declines in both output and export volumes due to the ongoing impact of high U.S. tariffs [1] Output Summary - Since the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in March, the output of Canada's steel and iron alloy manufacturing sector decreased by 24.8% in July compared to February [1] - Following an increase in the tariff rate to 50% in June, the industry saw a monthly output contraction of 19.1% in July, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [1] Export Summary - In July, the export volume of unrefined steel and iron alloys from Canada fell by 25.5% compared to February [1] - Exports of basic and semi-finished steel products experienced an even more substantial decline, dropping by 34.4% since February [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the overestimation of tariff impacts, highlighting the non-linear diminishing elasticity of tariff shocks and the subsequent easing mechanism due to reflexivity, as well as the strengthening demand from emerging markets and import substitution [1] - Six major judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, including the impact of tariff shocks, policy framework changes, and the new "three drivers" of economic growth [1] - The article emphasizes the resilience of exports, attributing the strong performance not to "export grabbing" but to mid-term resilience factors such as normal restocking cycles in developed countries and accelerated industrialization in emerging markets [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the current economic challenges, including weak domestic demand and fiscal constraints, and suggests that the government will enhance fiscal mechanisms to support economic transformation from investment-driven to consumption-led growth [5] - It highlights the increased scrutiny and accountability regarding hidden debts, particularly in lower-tier cities, indicating a shift towards more stringent regulatory measures [6] - The article discusses potential fiscal measures for the second half of 2025, including policy bank tools and government debt limits, to provide additional support if economic pressures arise [7] Group 3 - The article addresses the "anti-involution" movement, emphasizing its broader scope and stronger coordination compared to previous efforts, particularly in industries facing severe competition [8] - It points out that the current "anti-involution" initiative focuses on industry self-discipline and regional collaboration, aiming to alleviate the pressures of low-price competition [13] - The article corrects misconceptions about the nature of "involution," stressing that merely relying on upstream price increases will not effectively boost the Producer Price Index (PPI) [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a critical phase towards achieving modernization by 2035, focusing on high-quality development and key reforms [16] - It highlights the challenges posed by an aging population and the need for social security reform to ensure sustainability and equity in the system [18] - The article emphasizes the shift in industrial structure towards technology innovation and the importance of service sector development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [19][20] Group 5 - The article identifies new consumption trends driven by demographic changes, suggesting that the evolving population structure will create significant opportunities in new consumption spaces [21] - It notes the potential for a 3.3 trillion yuan investment gap in the service sector, indicating a broad growth opportunity in service-oriented investments [27] - The article discusses the phenomenon of excess savings, which is primarily driven by reduced housing expenditures, suggesting that these savings are likely to be directed towards investment rather than consumption [26]

Economic Pressure - The Trump administration has raised tariffs on Indian goods exported to the U.S. to 50%, significantly impacting key industries such as textiles, chemicals, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals [3] - India's annual exports to the U.S. amount to $87 billion, with over 60% of these goods now facing high tariffs, potentially leading to a near 50% reduction in overall export value [3] - The Indian rupee has fallen to a historic low, and economists predict that the tariff impact could reduce India's GDP growth rate by 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points [3] Energy and Geopolitical Challenges - The U.S. has revoked sanctions waivers for India's development of the Chabahar port in Iran, a strategic project aimed at connecting India to Afghanistan and Central Asia, which is now under threat of U.S. sanctions [5] - The U.S. is strengthening its geopolitical alliance with Pakistan, signing oil development agreements and enhancing military cooperation, which could increase pressure on India in the event of conflict [5] - India is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with 73% of its energy needs met from this region, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [5] Strategic Responses - In response to U.S. pressures, the Indian government is seeking to diversify its partnerships, including reducing import taxes on edible oils and enhancing trade relations with Germany and Singapore [8] - India is also attempting to improve relations with China and Russia, with Prime Minister Modi attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and promoting direct currency transactions to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [10] Domestic Sentiment and Political Impact - The U.S. actions have sparked significant public discontent in India, with protests against the U.S. and a decline in support for Modi's government [11] - Balancing national interests with domestic pressures presents a significant challenge for the Modi administration, as the interconnected nature of U.S. tariffs, energy sanctions, and geopolitical strategies aims to compel India to align with U.S. interests [11]

美国贸易数据显示，去年越南是美国第六大进口来源国，对美出口额1365亿美元。越南海关部门数据显 示，8月7日关税生效以来，越南8月其对最大市场美国的出口额较7月下降了2%。美国关税生效后，世 界银行已下调对越南今年的经济增长预期。 联合国开发计划署的报告还显示，东南亚地区受关税冲击十分严重，预计对美出口平均将下降9.7%。 其中泰国对美出口额可能下降12.7%，马来西亚下降10.4%，印度尼西亚下降6.4%。 据路透社报道，联合国开发计划署(UNDP)亚太区首席经济学家席勒肯斯表示，在关税推高美国通胀的 最糟糕情况下，美国针对越南商品征收的20%关税，随着时间推移"可能导致越南对美出口额减少超250 亿美元，接近其年度对美出口总额的五分之一"。 对于这一估算，越南财政部和工业部未立即回应媒体的置评请求。 ...

按时间线梳理，我们看对了什么？ 在市场对关税冲击悲观时，提示关税影响被"高估"。 壹 2025年4月12日 《 "高估"的关税冲击？ 》 对等关税2.0开启时，我们明确指出市场忽视了关税冲击弹性的"非线性递减"特征，忽视了关 税"反身性"所导致的"先冲击、后缓和"机制，低估了新兴市场需求走强、进口替代等影响。 国内经济，六大判断！ 今年以来，我们在关税冲击、政策框架转变、反内卷、新"三驾马车"等多领域均做出精准预判，且多 次提出了与市场主流预期不同的观点，可概括为六大重要判断： 一 贰 2025年5月14日 《 中国制造"难替代性" 》 我们从豁免清单、加价倍率、强依赖商品、"龙二"竞争力较弱等多个视角讨论了中国制造"难 替代性"，中美关税也迎来缓和。 叁 2025年8月19日 《 出口会否持续"超预期"？ 》 我们强调，今年出口走强并非源于市场认为的"抢出口"，而是中期韧性的体现，包括发达国家 正常补库周期、新兴市场工业化城镇化提速，以及我国在替代欧盟于新兴市场的份额。后续出 口仍有韧性。 提示本轮政策框架转变，总量政策空间打开， 防风险力度不减。 二 壹 2025年3月12日 《 财政注能 强振经济 》 ...

Core Insights - The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that U.S. tariffs could lead to a loss of over $25 billion for Vietnam, which is nearly one-fifth of its annual exports to the U.S. [1] - Following the implementation of a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. decreased by 2% in August compared to July [1] - The World Bank has revised down its economic growth forecast for Vietnam due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Summary by Category Economic Impact - The UNDP's chief economist highlighted that the worst-case scenario of U.S. tariffs could significantly affect Vietnam's export levels [1] - Southeast Asia is expected to face severe impacts, with an average decline of 9.7% in exports to the U.S. [1] Country-Specific Effects - Thailand's exports to the U.S. may decrease by 12.7%, Malaysia by 10.4%, and Indonesia by 6.4% due to the tariffs [1] - Vietnam was the sixth-largest source of imports for the U.S. last year, with total exports amounting to $136.5 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in South Korea's exports in September due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, raising concerns for the trade-dependent South Korean economy [2][4]. Export Performance - South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of September fell by 10.6% year-on-year, while the adjusted export figure for August showed a growth of 6% [2]. - Unadjusted export figures for September indicated a growth of 13.5%, with total imports increasing by 9.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.89 billion [2]. Sector Analysis - Semiconductor exports, a key driver for this year's exports, grew by 27%, continuing the 30% increase seen in August, while automotive exports rose by approximately 15% [4]. - However, petrochemical products are facing challenges due to tariffs and weak global demand [4]. Tariff Impact - The implementation of a 15% general tariff by the U.S. on South Korean goods has created difficulties for exporters, despite smartphones and laptops remaining unaffected [4]. - There is a looming threat of expanded tariffs on semiconductors, as indicated by warnings from former President Trump [4]. Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding trade relations has dampened market sentiment, exacerbated by recent immigration enforcement actions that led to the detention of over 300 South Korean workers in Georgia [4].