Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Biden's enhanced healthcare becomes a political tool for both parties, significantly impacting the capital markets. Currently, only three departments have reached a budget agreement, while nine departments' budgets will expire on January 30, 2026. The recent healthcare vote resulted in both parties rejecting each other's proposals, diminishing hopes for a resolution before the Christmas holiday [5]. Group 1: Political and Economic Scenarios - Scenario One: Government shutdown leads to a lapse in healthcare subsidies, triggering interest rate cuts, resulting in a "recessionary" trading environment. In this scenario, the US dollar index and US stocks would decline, while safe-haven assets like gold would benefit. However, this scenario remains low probability as neither party can afford the consequences of failing to extend healthcare subsidies, especially with midterm elections approaching for the Republicans [5]. - Scenario Two: Both parties reach an agreement on healthcare subsidies, allowing the government to operate smoothly, leading to a quarter-on-quarter economic rebound in the US and a pause in interest rate cuts. This scenario would favor US stocks and the dollar index, while gold as a safe-haven asset would face relative pressure. However, significant challenges remain for both parties to achieve a satisfactory agreement on healthcare in January [5][6]. - Scenario Three: Republicans push through fiscal budgets and their version of healthcare subsidies using "budget reconciliation." The economy would remain strong, similar to the first scenario, but this would prevent Republicans from using the "fast track" for future fiscal subsidies and budgets, creating risks for the next government shutdown [6]. - Scenario Four: A compromise budget agreement is reached before the January 30, 2026 deadline, leading to continued uncertainty in the US market. Asset price movements would be convoluted, favoring safe-haven assets like gold [7].