资产重估增速

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A股策略|资产重估定价是否依然有效?
野村东方国际证券· 2025-07-11 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that asset revaluation pricing is more suitable for the Chinese stock market as it enters a period of macroeconomic stability, shifting focus from net profit growth to asset revaluation growth, particularly in a low-growth environment [2][3]. Group 1: Effectiveness of Asset Revaluation Strategy - In 2024, the explanatory power of asset revaluation growth on industry performance is expected to increase, making it a more effective fundamental indicator than net profit and net asset growth [3]. - Among the top five industries in terms of growth, only the electronics sector has an asset revaluation growth rate below the median level, indicating a selective effectiveness of this strategy [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Asset Revaluation Strategy - The effectiveness of the asset revaluation strategy will be driven by several factors: 1) The rapid decline in opportunity costs in a low-interest-rate environment, making asset revaluation growth more favorable for investment decisions [4]. 2) The need for ROE optimization, where industry leaders focus on cash cycle efficiency, as seen in the improvement of the asset revaluation of the CSI 300 index due to reduced cash cycles [4]. 3) Continuous CAPEX investment is essential for future growth, with the total CAPEX of the CSI 300 index increasing over the past three years, supporting technological advancements and international competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities under Asset Revaluation Pricing - Based on the asset revaluation pricing approach, three investment directions are recommended: 1) Financial sector: The asset revaluation growth rate in the financial industry exceeds the overall market average, indicating potential for revaluation beyond just banks [5]. 2) Large-cap stocks: The value of large-cap stocks is expected to recover over a longer time frame, with recent weakness in this style potentially leading to accumulated excess returns [5]. 3) CAPEX advantage: Companies with strong CAPEX investment and cash recovery capabilities should be prioritized for maintaining or enhancing international competitiveness [5].