Report Information - Report Title: "Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report - Futures Bonds in Volatile Adjustment, Awaiting Policy Breakthrough" [3][4] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy is in a weak recovery, and the external risks are gradually easing. However, the sustainability of economic growth requires the coordinated efforts of fiscal and loose monetary policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow - range shock under the game of multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait for policy signals for band - trading opportunities [94][95] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data of Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts rose by 0.26% and 0.05% respectively, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively. The trading volume of TS, TF, and T main contracts increased, while that of the TL main contract decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, and T main contracts decreased, while that of the TL main contract increased [14][17][23][31] - **Yield of Treasury Bonds**: The yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened collectively. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturity decreased by about 0.80 - 1bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y decreased by about 0.6bp and 0.4bp to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [10] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policies**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The CSRC focused on optimizing capital market mechanisms and protecting investors. The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a tax - credit policy for overseas investors' direct investment [9][34] - **Domestic Economic Data**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded. In May, economic data was mixed, with industrial growth slightly declining, retail sales exceeding expectations, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and the unemployment rate improving. Export growth weakened, and financial data slightly exceeded expectations [9] - **Overseas News**: The US cancelled the requirement for three chip - design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill [35] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The yield spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds widened slightly, while that between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly [43] - **Main Contract Spread**: The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [47] - **Near - Far Month Spread**: The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's spread fluctuated narrowly, the 2 - year contract's spread narrowed slightly, and the 5 - year contract's spread fluctuated [53][57] - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T treasury bond futures main contract decreased slightly [62] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Shibor rates for overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all declined. The yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened, with 1 - 7Y yields decreasing and 10Y and 30Y yields also declining [67] - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [71] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 65.22 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases mature, resulting in a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate dropped to around 1.42% [10][73] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 75.5736 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 45.3068 billion yuan, and a net financing of 30.2667 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 92 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened [80] - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose slightly, and the VIX index dropped slightly [86] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond dropped slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined [91] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy is in a recovery trend, but the momentum of domestic demand recovery needs to be consolidated. External risks have eased, but the sustainability of economic growth requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies [94] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy is gradually recovering, and the strong employment market weakens the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the uncertainty of future interest - rate cut rhythms [94] - **Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to wait for policy signals for band - trading opportunities [95]