1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The market capital is expected to remain loose, with increased volatility in the equity market. As the Middle - East situation gradually eases, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to stabilize [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed changes. For example, the T2606 contract rose 0.01%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The open interest of T2606 increased by 9,752, and the trading volume was 81,297 [2] - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed changes. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 2bp, DR007 interest rate fell 0.04bp, and GC007 interest rate fell 3.8bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.52bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 44.87bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds mostly declined. The 10Y US treasury bond yield fell 5bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield fell 6bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 0.2bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 31, the central bank conducted 32.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with a net investment of 15 billion yuan [3] - **International Situation**: Trump said he was willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. Iran was willing to end the war on the condition that its demands were met. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar put forward five proposals on the Gulf and Middle - East situation [3] - **Monetary Policy Meeting**: The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its first - quarter meeting in 2026, suggesting to combine incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and keep liquidity abundant [3] - **Economic Data**: In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range, with values of 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: Most money - market interest rates declined. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledge - style repurchase and inter - bank lending all declined [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: Most US treasury bond yields declined, except for the 30 - year yield which rose slightly [3]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads, including price spreads between futures and spot, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Details - **Price Spreads between Futures and Spot**: For example, the F period - spot spread is - 74.25, with a 4.00% change compared to the previous day and a 2.50% historical 1 - year quantile; the H period - spot spread is - 22.91, with a - 3.03 change and a 5.70% historical 1 - year quantile [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts, with values and changes for different varieties like IF, IH, IC, and IM [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios including CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures [2]. Details - **Basis**: For instance, the TS basis on March 31, 2026, is 1.1202, with a 0.0494 change and a 7.40% historical quantile; the TF basis is 0.0588, with a - 0.0352 change and a 29.50% historical quantile [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract periods of TS, TF, T, and TL are reported with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals, along with investment suggestions [5]. Details - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2606, AG2606, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts are given, as well as foreign futures closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, spot platinum, spot palladium, and Shanghai Gold Exchange products are presented [5]. - **Basis**: Bases such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., are reported with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [5]. - **Price Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium are provided [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are reported [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and positions of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are presented [5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Suggestions include trying to go long on gold at the 4400 - 4500 US dollar range when gold ETF positions stop falling and rebound; expecting silver to stand above 70 US dollars and seize short - term upward opportunities; and considering the long - platinum - short - palladium ratio as platinum moves up in the 1850 - 2015 US dollar range and palladium consolidates above 1400 US dollars [5].

There is no specific content in the provided text regarding the report's industry investment rating, core views, or detailed information under relevant directories. Therefore, no valid summary can be made based on the current content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. TACO trading has heated up again, influenced by the Middle - East situation. The LPR remains unchanged, while the reduced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty add uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. In the short term, the policy signals at the end of the month should be monitored [4]. - The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market. The decline in credit growth and insufficient household financing demand indicate that the restoration of the economy's internal driving force still takes time, and bond yields are still driven downward. However, the impact of rising inflation expectations on short - term sentiment should be noted [3]. - The front - loaded fiscal policy and government bond supply suppress the short - term sentiment of the bond market, but the central bank's liquidity support and potential subsequent overall easing will provide bottom support for the bond market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [10]. - Monthly economic indicators: The scale of social financing is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year remains at 9.00%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points and a growth rate of 2.86% [11]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 and a decline rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.8871, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.026 and a decline rate of 0.38%; SHIBOR for 7 days is 1.44, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.41%; DR007 is 1.42, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.44%; R007 is 1.55, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.44, down 0.02 with a decline rate of 1.23%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.23% [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 31, 2026, are 102.54 yuan, 106.11 yuan, 108.40 yuan, and 111.69 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.082 yuan, 0.050 yuan, 0.031 yuan, and 0.065 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - On March 31, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 3.25 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender [3]. - The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.277%, 1.438%, 1.469%, and 1.495% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [3]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - term spread of treasury bond futures, the spread between the current bond term and the futures cross - variety (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc.) [8]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [45][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with all three major indices declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.7%. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen 6.51% this month, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 indices have fallen more than 10% this month [1]. - The conflict between the United States and Iran has disturbed the capital market, causing significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which first fell and then rose. The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate level, and Powell's stance was hawkish. The dot - plot shows only one expected interest rate cut this year, increasing the risk - aversion sentiment in the capital market [1]. - In the medium term, if global technology stocks are affected by liquidity, the previously strong technology sectors in the A - share market may experience a valuation correction [1]. - The current macro - economy is in a stage of steady recovery, structural optimization, and moderate inflation, which is negative for the bond market. In the short term, it is mainly in a volatile and bearish state, with long - term interest rates under more pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital market [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was volatile, with most stocks falling. The trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined. The Fed's decision and the US - Iran conflict affected the market, and the A - share technology sector may face valuation adjustments [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts all rose. The central bank conducted 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets generally declined [1][2]. Daily Price Changes | Variety | 2026 - 03 - 31 | 2026 - 03 - 30 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,804.0 | 2,812.4 | - 8.4 | - 0.30% | | IF | 4,375.8 | 4,414.0 | - 38.2 | - 0.87% | | IC | 7,425.0 | 7,560.6 | - 135.6 | - 1.79% | | IM | 7,379.4 | 7,509.4 | - 130.0 | - 1.73% | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,826.1 | 2,833.2 | - 7.1 | - 0.25% | | CSI 300 | 4,450.0 | 4,492.0 | - 41.9 | - 0.93% | | CSI 500 | 7,617.3 | 7,753.7 | - 136.4 | - 1.76% | | CSI 1000 | 7,619.9 | 7,767.9 | - 148.1 | - 1.91% | | TS | 102.54 | 102.54 | - 0.006 | - 0.01% | | TF | 106.11 | 106.09 | 0.015 | 0.01% | | T | 108.40 | 108.39 | 0.01 | 0.01% | | TL | 111.69 | 111.60 | 0.09 | 0.08% | [3] Market News - The market adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices falling. High - speed rail and rail transit, and two - wheeled vehicle concept stocks rose, while computing power hardware stocks adjusted [4]. - Most stocks fell, with more than 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closing in the red. The trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan [4]. - In terms of sectors, high - speed rail and rail transit, automobile manufacturing, engineering machinery, and banks led the gains, while coal, oil and gas, wind power, and chemical industries led the losses [5]. - There were 903 rising stocks, 59 limit - up stocks, 4,192 falling stocks, 16 limit - down stocks, and 17 stocks with their limit - up broken, with a broken - limit - up rate of 34% [6]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts [8][10][12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends, basis trends, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rate trends of Treasury bond futures contracts [15][17][19][21]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [24][25][27][29][30].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on April 1, 2026, covering the market performance of A-shares, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures on March 31, 2026 [1][2][3] Market Performance A-share Market - On March 31, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8% to close at 3,891.86 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to close at 13,478.06 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.7% to close at 3,184.95 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 2.59% to close at 1,256.33 points [2] - Market turnover was 2.0059 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, household appliances (+1.57%), banks (+0.72%), and food and beverages (+0.23%) performed well; coal (-3.67%), power equipment (-3.21%), and electronics (-2.71%) performed poorly [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,008/107/4,372 respectively [2] - In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of -26.9 billion, -22.5 billion, 15.6 billion, and 33.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -21.2 billion, -11 billion, +11.4 billion, and +20.8 billion yuan respectively [2] Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 121.85, 90.93, 36.65, and 4.72 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -13.33%, -9.95%, -6.86%, and -1.39% respectively, and the three-year historical quantiles were 24%, 23%, 17%, and 37% respectively [3] - The trading strategy is to maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium and long term. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has a certain excess return. It is recommended to allocate long positions in the forward contracts of each variety on dips [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On March 31, treasury bond futures strengthened slightly. Among the active contracts, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.15% [3] - For the current active contract 2606, the CTD bond of the 2-year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.058, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the 5-year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.017, and an IRR of 1.34%; the CTD bond of the 10-year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of +0.4bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.017, and an IRR of 1.5%; the CTD bond of the 30-year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.099, and an IRR of 1.82% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 32.5 billion yuan and withdrew 17.5 billion yuan through open market operations, with a net injection of 15 billion yuan [3] - The trading strategy is that the short-term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge on rallies for T and TL [3] Tables and Figures Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, current prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interests, daily position changes, settlement prices, basis, and annualized basis yields [5] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including codes, names, price changes, current prices, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interests, daily position changes, settlement prices, net basis, and implied interest rates of CTD bonds [6] Short-term Fund Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the changes in short-term fund interest rates, including the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago [9] Treasury Bond Spot Term Structure - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spots from March 31, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [7][8]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core View - The report provides the latest values of various stock index futures spreads, their changes compared to the previous day, and historical percentile data, helping investors understand the current situation of the stock index futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: The F futures - spot spread was -74.25, with a 4.00% change from the previous day and a 2.50% historical 1 - year percentile. The H futures - spot spread was -22.91, with a -3.03 change and a 5.70% historical 1 - year percentile. The IC futures - spot spread was -193.12, with a -14.71 change, and the IM futures - spot spread was 18.08, with a 0.9096 change [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For different contracts (e.g., next month - current month, far month - current month), various inter - delivery spreads are presented with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the next month - current month spread of a certain contract was -20.40, with a -1.00 change and a 22.20% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the IC/IF ratio was 2.6480, with a 96.90% historical percentile [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core View - The report provides the latest values of various treasury bond futures spreads, their changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical percentile data, assisting investors in analyzing the treasury bond futures market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis**: The TS basis was 1.1202, with a 0.0494 change and a 7.40% historical percentile. The TF basis was 0.0588, with a -0.0352 change and a 29.50% historical percentile. The T basis was 0.0502, with a -0.0483 change and a 48.30% historical percentile. The TL basis was 0.0060, with a 27.00% historical percentile [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for each contract (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the current quarter - next quarter spread of the TF contract was 0.2400, with a 0.0050 change and a 44.10% historical percentile [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are provided with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the TS - TF spread was -3.5670, with a -0.0210 change and an 8.40% historical percentile [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core View - The report presents the latest prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions, and provides investment suggestions for precious metals [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan, up 0.51% from the previous day. The AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/ten grams, up 2.37%. The PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan, down 0.88%. The PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan, up 1.15% [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4699.60 dollars, up 3.51%. The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 75.35 dollars, up 7.36%. The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 1962.30 dollars, up 3.67%. The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1488.50 dollars, up 5.31% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 4669.13 dollars, up 3.45%. The London silver price was 75.11 dollars, up 7.24%. The spot platinum price was 1950.00 dollars, up 3.34%. The spot palladium price was 1448.00 dollars, up 1.26%. The SGE gold T + D price was 1015.68 yuan/gram, up 0.67%. The SGE silver T + D price was 18031 yuan/ten grams, up 2.68%. The SGE gold 9995 price was 465 yuan, up 1.10% [5]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis was -4.42, with a 1.50 change and a 46.10% historical 1 - year percentile. The silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis was 3.66, with a 0.74 change and a 99.20% historical 1 - year percentile [5]. - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 62.37, down 3.59%. The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 56.28, down 1.81%. The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.32, down 1.56%. The GFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.36, down 2.01% [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30%, down 1.19%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79%, down 0.8%. The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00%, down 2.0%. The US dollar index was 09.88, down 0.62%. The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879, down 0.41% [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The SHFE gold inventory was 106644, unchanged. The SHFE silver inventory was 368667 kg, down 1.54%. The COMEX gold inventory was 31533901, down 0.01%. The COMEX silver inventory was 327820669, up 0.07%. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16563243 ounces, down 0.33%. The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76429739, up 0.53%. The SPDR gold ETF position was 1047, up 0.11%. The SLV silver ETF position was 15274, down 0.09% [5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: If the gold ETF position stops falling and rebounds, it reflects the improvement of the confidence of allocation funds. Investors can try to buy on dips in the range of 4400 - 4500 dollars and pay attention to the short - term resistance of the 20 - day moving average. In the short term, as the US - Iran war eases, silver is expected to stabilize above 70 dollars with gold, and investors can grasp the opportunity of band - type upward movement with the boost of capital sentiment, with the upper resistance at 85 dollars. Platinum is moving upward in the range of 1850 - 2015 dollars, and palladium is fluctuating and consolidating above 1400 dollars. The fundamental situation of palladium is relatively weaker, and investors can continue to hold the long - platinum short - palladium ratio [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, and precious metals markets are expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Some commodity markets such as steel, iron ore, and coking coal have potential short - term rebound opportunities, and investors can participate with light positions. Different agricultural and chemical product markets have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [6][9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line increase in treasury bond futures. The central bank's monetary policy committee meeting proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. The current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and the market is expected to face some pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Although asset valuations are low and there is room for repair, the Iran situation brings high uncertainty, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term logic of precious metals is strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, and in the medium term, prices are determined by supply and demand. Rebar demand is decreasing, but supply pressure is relieved, and prices may rebound with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on actual supply and demand. Demand may increase, but the impact may be limited. The inventory is at a high level. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can participate with light positions [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on actual supply and demand. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is improving. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Technically, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising slightly, and the supply is still in a surplus state. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [21][22]. 3.5 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The price of crude oil may be supported, but also affected by the end of the war. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for INE crude oil [23][24]. 3.6 Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets declined. Supply pressure is expected to ease, but demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The core contradiction is between cost - push and supply - demand game. The cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The core contradiction is between the impact of the Middle East conflict on cost and demand and the approaching of the domestic tapping season. The market is in a short - term multi - empty game and is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The core contradiction is between the supply concern caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, but the upside space is limited [33][34]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures fell. The core contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside space is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season [36]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PX load decreased, and the supply is expected to be tight. The price may be in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38][39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA load increased, and the downstream polyester load decreased. The short - term multi - empty game is intense, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. It is necessary to be cautious in the short term and pay attention to the negotiation progress and the situation of the strait [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The short - term trading is based on the cost logic, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress [43]. - **Bottle Chip**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The processing fee is being repaired. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation, and cost changes [44]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The cost is rising, but the price adjustment is limited. The market is expected to be in a stalemate [45][47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is shrinking, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The cost support is still there, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is slightly reduced, and the inventory is not significantly reduced. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot market may face pressure [49][50]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, paper pulp futures fell. The port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the supply is also increasing slightly. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory and weak demand put pressure on the market [51][52]. 3.7 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [53]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The macro - sentiment is cautious, the mine supply is in a tight balance, and the consumption is structurally differentiated. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support after a decline [54]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The ore cost is rising, the supply is tightened, and the demand is strong. The inventory is changing, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise slightly [56][57]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The mine cost provides support, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has repair momentum, but the upside space is limited [58]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply is tightened, and the demand is for rigid replenishment. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support, but the overseas situation is uncertain [63]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures rose slightly. The macro - situation is improving, but the policy risk in Indonesia increases. The supply and demand are complex, and the inventory is relatively high. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [64][65]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, and the US soybean planting area is lower than expected. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities for soybean meal at low levels and stay on the sidelines for soybean oil [66][67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The export data in March is strong, and Indonesia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio. The inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [68][69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different trends. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [71]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory is in a decreasing cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term, but the short - term quota issuance is negative. The price has long - term support [73][74]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures fluctuated. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import volume is high. The international sugar price has support due to the impact of oil prices. The domestic sugar price has a higher bottom [75][76]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is increasing. The market is expected to be stable and strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [77][78]. - **Pig**: The previous trading day, pig futures fell. The supply is under pressure, the consumption is weak, and the secondary fattening support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - month contracts with light positions [79]. - **Egg**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply is improving, but the demand may decline after the stocking period. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn futures fell, and corn starch futures rose slightly. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced. The demand for corn starch is improving, but the supply is abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to short - covering opportunities after the price decline [81][83]. - **Log**: The previous trading day, log futures fell. The export volume from New Zealand decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. The terminal consumption is limited, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [84][86].

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core Views - On March 31, due to the loose funds across the quarter, treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board. The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively, with short - term yields rising by about 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250022 rising by 0.9bp to 1.812% by 16:30. The funds were loose across the quarter, with a net reverse repurchase injection of 15 billion yuan in the open market. The overnight DR in the inter - bank market fell 3.84bp to around 1.27%, and the 7 - day fund rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.43%. The medium - and long - term funds loosened, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell to around 1.48%. - Economic data from January to February were good, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. Coupled with the unclear situation in the Middle East, oil prices might remain at a high level for a long time, bringing imported inflation pressure and impacting the bond market. However, considering that the current inflation increase is mainly due to supply contraction rather than a significant increase in demand, the central bank's monetary policy is unlikely to change significantly. There may be opportunities to bet on market oversold conditions. In the short term, with economic data released and important policy information landed, market trading may focus on the capital side, policy deployment, and Sino - US relations. Attention should be paid to the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and a resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, and the short - term loose funds will provide strong support. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board due to loose funds across the quarter; the yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively, with short - term yields rising by about 1bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield changing slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250022 yield rose 0.9bp to 1.812% by 16:30. The funds were loose across the quarter, with a net reverse repurchase injection of 15 billion yuan. The overnight DR in the inter - bank market fell 3.84bp to around 1.27%, the 7 - day fund rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.43%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell to around 1.48%. [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Economic data from January - February were good, dampening market easing expectations. With the unclear Middle East situation, high oil prices may bring imported inflation pressure and impact the bond market. But considering inflation is supply - driven, the central bank's policy may not change significantly. There may be opportunities in the oversold market. In the short term, the focus may shift to the capital side, policy, and Sino - US relations. Attention should be paid to RRR cuts and risk - aversion sentiment, and short - term loose funds will support. [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - The US State Department clarified the false report about Trump delaying his visit to China due to China's non - assistance in the Strait of Hormuz escort. The two sides are in communication about the visit. - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting after the US - Israeli air strikes on Iran. The strikes have caused oil price surges, affecting various assets. The Fed will discuss the impact of energy shocks on inflation and economic growth. Market expectations for a rate cut this year have dropped to once, and the war may strengthen the consensus that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. - China's economic data from January - February showed that fixed - asset investment increased 1.8% YoY (ex - real estate investment increased 5.2%), industrial added value increased 6.3% YoY, service production index increased 5.2% YoY, retail sales increased 2.8% YoY, real - estate development investment decreased 11.1%, new home sales area decreased 13.5%, new home sales volume decreased 20.2%, and the urban unemployment rate was 5.3%. The decline in new home prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow. [13][14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents the trading data of treasury bond futures on March 31, including contract information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change of various contracts. It also mentions data on the spread of main contract expirations, the spread between different - term main contracts (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trend of main contracts. [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, the change of the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the change of the inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase rate. [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curve (mean) of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps. [36]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - Methanol closed at 3296.00 with a weekly increase of 5.24%;焦煤 closed at 1219.00 with a 4.10% increase; PTA closed at 6876.00 with a 3.40% increase; copper closed at 95930.00 with a 1.26% increase; palm oil closed at 9768.00 with a 0.51% increase; rebar closed at 3124.00 with a 0.03% increase. Aluminum closed at 23935.00 with a -0.35% decrease; iron ore closed at 812.00 with a -0.43% decrease; corn closed at 2369.00 with a -0.75% decrease; silver closed at 17489.00 with a -0.77% decrease; glass closed at 1041.00 with a -1.23% decrease; ethylene glycol closed at 5279.00 with a -1.38% decrease; live pigs closed at 9965.00 with a -2.50% decrease; soybean meal closed at 2937.00 with a -3.04% decrease; gold closed at 998.66 with a -4.16% decrease; crude oil closed at 740.80 with a -4.24% decrease; PVC closed at 5615.00 with a -4.43% decrease; polysilicon closed at 35680.00 with a -5.52% decrease [2] A-shares - CSI 500 closed at 7737.61 with a -0.29% decrease; SSE 300 closed at 4502.57 with a -1.41% decrease; SSE 50 closed at 2837.31 with a -1.61% decrease [2] Overseas Stocks - FTSE 100 closed at 9967.35 with a -1.29% decrease; France CAC40 closed at 7701.95 with a 0.47% increase; Nikkei 225 closed at 53373.07 with a 0.49% increase; Hang Seng Index closed at 24951.88; S&P 500 closed at 6368.85 with a -2.12% decrease; Nasdaq Index closed at 20948.36 with a -3.23% decrease [2] Bonds - China's 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.56 with a 0.67bp increase; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.82 with a 0.39bp increase; 2-year treasury bond yield was 1.31 with a -0.28bp decrease [2] Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index closed at 100.17 with a 0.67% increase; US Dollar mid-price was 6.91 with a 0.35% increase; Euro to US Dollar was 1.15 with a -0.50% decrease [2] Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: 1-2 month industrial enterprise profits increased by 15.2% year-on-year, high-tech manufacturing profits grew by 58.7%, policies are releasing signals for stable growth, and stock index valuations are at a low historical level. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the Middle East, rising Fed rate hike expectations, decreased trading volume, and potential weak terminal demand [3] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Safe-haven sentiment supports bonds, loose liquidity, and policy support. Bearish logic: Strong economic resilience, rising inflation expectations, and reduced short-term rate cut expectations [3] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Military confrontation between Iran and the US, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, slow inventory reconstruction, and supply-demand imbalance. Bearish logic: Release of strategic reserves, increased Russian oil supply, OPEC+ production increase plan, and potential for a ceasefire [4] Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Meal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: High US soybean export inspections, rising fertilizer prices, slow Brazilian soybean arrivals, and increased feed demand. Bearish logic: Increasing soybean arrivals in April, faster Brazilian soybean harvest, expected increase in new-season soybean planting area, and long-term supply surplus [4] Non-ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE, strong LME spot premium, rising domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates, and a strong technical rebound. Bearish logic: Global inflation, potential recession trading, high domestic aluminum inventories, and low aluminum rod processing fees [5] Chemical Sector Methanol - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 1 expects a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Decreased Iranian methanol plant operating rates, improved downstream enterprise profits, increased downstream olefin demand, and accelerated inventory reduction. Bearish logic: Uncertainty in the conflict and potential price corrections [5] Precious Metals Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Geopolitical risks, high oil prices, and potential capital inflows. Bearish logic: Reduced market liquidity, unclear Fed rate cut path, strong US Dollar, and gold sales by some countries [6] Black Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic: Rising energy prices, increased blast furnace operating rates, increased downstream inventory replenishment, and a favorable supply-demand pattern. Bearish logic: High domestic coking coal production, high Mongolian coal imports, and intense futures market competition [6]