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金石资源(603505):萤石价格同环比略有下滑,选化一体项目利润逐步兑现,蒙古项目顺利推进
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-23 15:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance in the first half of 2025 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 1.726 billion yuan (YoY +54%) and a net profit of 126 million yuan (YoY -25%) [7] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025, driven by seasonal demand and improvements in project execution [7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising fluorite prices in the medium to long term due to industry supply constraints [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2024: 2.752 billion yuan - 2025: 3.746 billion yuan - 2026: 4.591 billion yuan - 2027: 5.003 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 45.2% for 2024, 36.1% for 2025, 22.5% for 2026, and 9.0% for 2027 [3] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2024: 257 million yuan - 2025: 338 million yuan - 2026: 568 million yuan - 2027: 763 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at -26.3% for 2024, 31.5% for 2025, 68.1% for 2026, and 34.2% for 2027 [3] Market Data - As of August 22, 2025, the closing price was 16.80 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.14 billion yuan [4] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 55 for 2024, projected to decrease to 19 by 2027 [3][4] Operational Insights - The report notes that the company's fluorite price has slightly declined, but the integrated project is expected to gradually realize profits [7] - The Mongolian project is progressing smoothly, with expectations for increased production and profitability in the fourth quarter of 2025 [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's strategic focus on resource and technology integration, particularly in the fluorochemical sector [7]