Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].