Core Viewpoint - The "Trump concept" cryptocurrency sector has experienced a significant decline, with various associated assets plummeting in value, indicating a loss of investor confidence and a shift from a perceived "Trump premium" to a "Trump drag" [1][7][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - American Bitcoin's stock price fell by over 50% within minutes of market opening, reflecting panic among investors [2]. - The WLFI token has decreased by 51% from its early September high, while Alt5 Sigma's stock has dropped 85% from its yearly peak [5]. - Meme coins associated with Trump and Melania have seen price declines of approximately 90% and 99% from their January highs [6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The initial endorsement of cryptocurrencies by Trump was seen as a catalyst for price increases, but this sentiment has reversed, leading to a significant loss of trust in these assets [3][8]. - Retail investors, particularly those who entered the market at peak prices, are suffering the most from these declines, with some reporting losses of up to 40% in their digital asset portfolios [11][12]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The decline in the value of Trump-related cryptocurrency projects has resulted in a loss of over $1 billion in wealth for the Trump family since October, although they still retain substantial profits [10]. - The political backing that once seemed beneficial for these projects is now viewed as a double-edged sword, with experts suggesting that Trump's involvement may have undermined their credibility [10].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency projects associated with the Trump family, once market darlings, are now facing a significant collapse in trust [1][2][3] - The "Trump premium" that previously boosted these assets has rapidly transformed into a "Trump drag" [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - American Bitcoin's stock plummeted by 33% within the first minute of trading, eventually dropping over 50% [1] - World Liberty Financial's token WLFI has decreased by 51% since early September [2] - Alt5 Sigma's stock has fallen by 85% from its yearly high [2] - Meme coins named after Trump and Melania have seen price declines of approximately 90% and 99% from their January peaks [2] Group 2: Impact of Trump's Involvement - Earlier this year, Trump's endorsement seemed to solidify the credibility of digital tokens, leading to significant price increases [3] - The merger announcement between Gryphon Digital and American Bitcoin resulted in a 173% stock surge, followed by a 16% increase on the first trading day post-merger [3] - Trump's push for regulatory changes initially benefited these projects, but his involvement has since become a liability [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are bearing the brunt of the losses, with the Trump family's wealth from crypto ventures declining by over $1 billion since October [6] - A Vancouver student reported a 40% drop in his digital token portfolio, expressing disappointment in the market's response despite Trump's support [7] - Bitcoin experienced a 6% increase on the same day American Bitcoin struggled, indicating a divergence between the Trump concept and the mainstream crypto market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the net deficit by at least $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for U.S. fiscal policy and economic growth [3][11][28]. Summary by Sections Bill Content and Progress - The "Big Beautiful Bill" includes the permanent extension of key provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, additional tax relief measures, and increased spending in defense and border security while cutting expenditures in agriculture, education, and energy [3][11][13]. - The bill is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [11][28]. Tax Policy - The bill extends and makes permanent the major provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduces new personal and family tax cuts, and raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 [13][14]. - It also imposes higher tax rates on passive income for individuals and corporations from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, potentially reaching a maximum rate of 20% [4][14]. Deficit and Revenue Projections - The estimated annual tariff revenue is projected to reach around $200 billion, which could help mitigate the deficit increase caused by the bill, although it will not fully cover the shortfall from tax cuts [5][30]. - Under baseline assumptions, the deficit rates for 2025 to 2028 are estimated to be around 6.4% to 7.0%, with optimistic scenarios potentially lowering the rates slightly [6][30][28]. Economic Impact - The bill is expected to provide a marginal boost to economic growth, with projections indicating a real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5% in 2025 and a potential recovery to 2.0%-2.5% in 2026 due to tax cuts and lower interest rates [7][32]. - However, the long-term fiscal sustainability remains a concern, as the combination of increased deficits and rising interest payments could lead to a significant increase in the national debt [34][38]. Long-term Debt and Interest Risks - The CBO estimates that if the ten-year Treasury yield remains at 4.5%, interest payments could exceed $13 trillion by 2034, significantly increasing the fiscal burden [34][38]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from nearly 100% to 128% by 2034, raising concerns among credit rating agencies about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [38]. Market Reactions and Bond Yields - Recent increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields are attributed to the "Trump premium," reflecting market concerns over the fiscal implications of the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the potential for increased deficits [45][51]. - Despite short-term pressures, the 10-year Treasury bonds are still viewed as having significant investment value, especially in light of potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [52].

以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 于金潼 、中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁伟奥 5月22日，美国众议院以215比2 1 4票的微弱优势通过2 0 2 5财年预算 协调法案"The One , Bi g, Be a utif ul Bill "（大美丽法案）。不同机 构估计，该法案将在未来1 0年内使净赤字增加至少3万亿美元。这个 法案究竟会带来什么影响？ 大美丽法案包括什么？ 5月22日，美国众议院以215比214票的微弱优势通过2025财年预算协调法案"The One, Big, Beautiful Bill"（大美丽法案）。不同机构估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使净赤字增加至少3 万亿美元。主要内容包括延长并永久化2017年《减税和就业法案》的主要条款，并添加额外的税收减免 政策；虽然在农业、教育、能源等领域削减了支出，但在国防和边境安全上扩大了支出，叠加减税政 策，总体上法案让美国政府赤字进一步上行。 其中外国资产税引人注意，法案第899条规定对美国认为 存在税收政策"歧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].