Domestic Economic Indicators - March PPI is expected to be around 0.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year PPI of approximately 0.1%, potentially ending a 41-month streak of negative PPI[5] - From January to February, industrial profits increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from high-tech manufacturing and related raw material industries[5] Global Economic Risks - Two of the four major global economic pressures have emerged: oil prices exceeding $100 could lead to an early recession in the U.S.; the dollar index breaking 100 may pressure non-U.S. liquidity[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% could burden U.S. fiscal health, while the S&P 500 index may adjust by 20% if it reaches its peak, as indicated by historical patterns[5] Market Trends - Oil prices are fluctuating around $100 per barrel, prompting significant political responses, while the dollar index has reached 100, leading to gold sell-offs by central banks in Poland and Turkey[5] - If the U.S. maintains control over the situation, a critical point may be reached in mid to late April, potentially improving global risk appetite[5] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has continued net liquidity injections, with a total net injection of 281.9 billion yuan during the week of March 23-27[21] - The average rates for R001, DR001, R007, and DR007 were 1.3871%, 1.3179%, 1.5069%, and 1.4398%, respectively, showing minor fluctuations compared to the previous week[22] Government Debt Financing - Local government debt net financing was 1305.97 billion yuan, and national debt net financing was 948.10 billion yuan, totaling approximately 2254.07 billion yuan for the week[23] - Upcoming local government debt issuance is planned at 1184.24 billion yuan, with net financing expected to be 399.68 billion yuan[23] Stock Market Performance - Major indices in the A-share market experienced declines, with the ChiNext index showing the largest drop of 1.68%[39] - The U.S. stock market also faced downward pressure, with the Nasdaq index leading the decline at 3.23%[39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in January - February showed significant improvement and exceeded market expectations. The improvement was mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday misalignment, and the high - tech manufacturing industry also played a role. However, the sustainability of economic recovery remains to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The Iran geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about imported inflation, and combined with the year - on - year increase in China's February inflation data, the upward pressure on inflation may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [10][12] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on dips with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: In February, inflation and export data exceeded expectations, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday misalignment, the improvement of service consumption, and external demand. The economic data achieved a "good start", but the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. Overseas, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, increasing market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising oil prices suppress the Fed's monetary easing expectations [10] - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 500 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 242.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 450 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [12] - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 1.82%, down 1.28 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year Treasury yield closed at 2.34%, down 4.90 BP week - on - week; the latest 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 3.00 BP week - on - week [12] - **Summary**: The economic data in January - February improved significantly, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The capital market is generally stable and loose. The Iran geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about imported inflation, and inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [12] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The improvement of the fundamentals still needs to be observed. The net basis is low, the price is moderate, the policy is in a neutral period, the liquidity pressure is expected to ease, and the discount is low. The medium - to - long - term strategy for the bond market is to go long on dips [13] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: The recommended strategy is to go long on dips with a profit - to - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by the logic of loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [17] - **TL Contract**: The report shows the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [22] - **TF Contract**: The report displays the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [25] - **TS Contract**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current - quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [28] - **TS and TF Positions**: The report shows the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [31] - **T and TL Positions**: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [36] 3.3. Main Economic Data 3.3.1. Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%, and the economy maintained resilience throughout the year. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the service PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, showing a divergence between the manufacturing and service sectors [41] - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In February 2026, the supply and demand sides of the manufacturing industry weakened. The production index decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 49.6%, and new orders decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6% [47] - **Price Index**: In February, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year (previous value: 0.2%); core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year (previous value: 0.8%); PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 1.4%). From a month - on - month perspective, CPI increased by 1.0% (previous value: 0.2%); core CPI increased by 0.7% (previous value: 0.3%); PPI increased by 0.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [50] - **Export and Import**: From January to February, China's export data was stronger than expected, mainly due to the holiday misalignment and improved external demand. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year - on - year (previous value: 6.6%), and imports increased by 19.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.7%). China's exports to the US were still weak, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53] - **Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales**: From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.3% (previous value: 5.2%), and the growth rate of industrial production rebounded. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in January - February was 2.8%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The growth of retail sales was driven by the high growth of service consumption during the Spring Festival, while durable goods such as cars and home appliances declined due to high bases and the diminishing marginal utility of subsidies [56] - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8% (previous value: - 3.8%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 11.1% (previous value: - 17.2%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 11.4% (previous value: - 1.4%); the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 3.1% (previous value: 0.6%). In February, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.4% (previous value: - 0.5%); the year - on - year change was - 6.3% (previous value: - 6.2%) [59] - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: From January to February, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 50.84 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1% (previous value: - 20.4%); the cumulative value of new housing construction was 5.35372 billion square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.7% (previous value: - 10.0%). The cumulative year - on - year decline of completion data from January to February was 27.88% (previous value: - 18.16%); the new housing sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has recently recovered, but the sustainability of the real estate improvement needs to be observed [62][65] 3.3.2. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In Q4, the annualized current - price GDP of the US was $3.149 trillion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 2.23% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 1.40%. In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year (previous value: 2.4%); the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year (previous value: 2.5%) and 0.4% month - on - month (previous value: 0.4%). In January, the order amount of durable goods in the US was $321.3 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 10.34% (previous value: 10.59%). In February, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment in the US decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% (previous value: 4.3%). In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4 (previous value: 52.6), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1 (previous value: 53.8) [68][71][74] - **EU Economy**: In Q4, the GDP of the EU increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In January, the CPI of the eurozone increased by 1.7% year - on - year (expected: 1.7%, previous value: 1.9%), and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month (expected: - 0.3%, previous value: 0.2%). In February, the manufacturing PMI of the eurozone was 50.8 (previous value: 49.5), and the service PMI was 51.9 (previous value: 51.6) [74][77] 3.4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In February, the growth rate of M1 was 5.9% (previous value: 4.9%); the growth rate of M2 was 9.0% (previous value: 9.0%), and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The increment of social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan (2.23 trillion yuan in the same period last year); the new RMB loans were 0.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 195.6 billion yuan year - on - year. In the sub - items of social financing in February, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds decreased, and the financing of the real - economy sector rebounded. The growth rate of social financing of the household and enterprise sectors in February was 6.1% (previous value: 5.9%), and the growth rate of government bonds was 16.6% (previous value: 17.3%) [82][85] - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In February, the balance of MLF was 7.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 500 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 242.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 450 billion yuan in MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [88] 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The report provides the latest values, daily changes, weekly changes, and monthly changes of various interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [91] - **Interest Rate Charts**: The report presents charts of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond yields of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, the Fed's target interest rate, and exchange rates [96][100][101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment has emerged, potentially reducing the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2606 contract likely to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8] - Silver prices are also falling, similar to gold. The Ag2606 contract is expected to trade in a range of 16300 yuan/kilogram to 17300 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He denied rushing to reach an agreement with Iran, stating that US military operations against Iran continue and that Iran is seeking to restart negotiations. Trump warned Iran to take the peace agreement seriously or face severe consequences [1] - Economic data: US initial jobless claims increased by 5000 to 210,000 last week, in line with market expectations. Continuing jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest level in nearly two years. The OECD's latest economic outlook report predicts global economic growth of 2.9% in 2026 and a slight increase to 3% in 2027. US economic growth is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year will reach 4.2%, far higher than the Fed's expectation [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 26, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1014.50 yuan/gram and closed at 995.98 yuan/gram, a change of -1.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 991.18 yuan/gram and closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, a 1.60% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 26, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 18,089.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,472.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -3.53% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 775,118 lots, and the open interest was 219,990 lots. In the night session, it opened at 16,938 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,841 yuan/kilogram, a 3.61% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 26, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.416%, a change of +0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.43%, a change of +0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, long positions decreased by 1201 lots, and short positions increased by 3863 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 438,419 lots, a change of -17.17% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, long positions increased by 3101 lots, and short positions increased by 3055 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,206,162 lots, a change of -19.40% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.42 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,409 tons, a decrease of 105 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 26, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 8.51 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 189.16 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was approximately 57.00, a change of 1.82% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.26, a change of -1.42% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 26, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 85,694 kilograms, a change of 6.55% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 429,700 kilograms, a change of -5.95% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Futures Closing Prices - **Domestic Futures**: On March 24, 2026, the AU2606 contract closed at 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.28 yuan or 3.97% from March 23; the AG2606 contract closed at 17085 yuan/kilogram, up 1674 yuan or 10.86%; the PT2606 contract closed at 487.40, up 29.65 or 6.48%; the PD2606 contract closed at 359.50 yuan/gram, up 31.65 yuan or 9.65% [1] - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4474.90 on March 24, up 64.50 or 1.46% from March 23; the COMEX白银主力合约 closed at 71.45, up 2.13 or 3.07%; the NYMEX铂金主力合约 closed at 1920.50 dollars/ounce, up 46.10 or 2.46%; the NYMEX钮金主力合约 closed at 1444.50, up 5.50 or 0.38% [1] 2. Spot Prices - **International Spots**: London gold was at 4472.02 on March 24, up 64.67 or 1.47% from the previous value; London silver was at 71.28, up 2.17 or 3.13%; spot platinum was at 1892.00 dollars/ounce, down 1.00 or -0.05%; spot palladium was at 1393.00, down 55.00 or -3.80% [1] - **Domestic Spots**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D was at 977.99 yuan/gram on March 24, up 57.00 yuan or 6.19% from the previous value; the silver T+D was at 17166 yuan/kilogram, up 1897 yuan or 12.42%; the platinum 9995 was at 475 yuan/gram, up 15 yuan or 3.33% [1] 3. Basis - The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was at 0.71, up 19.72 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%; the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was at 81, up 223, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was at - 9.13, up 4.16, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 75.60%; London silver - COMEX silver was at - 0.37, down 0.15, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 21.70% [1] 4. Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was at 62.63, down 0.99 or -1.56% from the previous value; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was at 57.20, down 3.79 or -6.22% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was at 1.33, up 0.03 or 2.07%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was at 1.36, down 0.04 or -2.90% [1] 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.39%, up 0.05 percentage points or 1.2% from the previous value; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.90%, up 0.07 percentage points or 1.8% [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was at 2.06%, up 0.05 percentage points or 2.5%; the US Dollar Index was at 99.23, up 0.07 or 0.07% [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was at 6.8926, up 0.0066 or 0.10% [1] 6. Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 106743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms or 0.00% from the previous value; the silver inventory was 365923, up 1374 or 0.38% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 32016435, down 16108 or -0.05%; COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 ounces, down 638687 or -0.19% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16544929, up 29708 or 0.18%; COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76548579, down 2650968 or -3.35% [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1053, up 0.29 or 0.03% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of March 20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 24bp in two weeks to 4.39%, and the yield curve steepened bearishly. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Powell's stance was hawkish, inflation stagnated due to tariffs, energy, and geopolitical factors, market rate cut expectations shrank, and U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly [2]. - The U.S. national debt officially exceeded $39 trillion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio approached 130%, far exceeding the international safety line of 60%. The annual debt interest expenditure exceeded $1.2 trillion for the first time, squeezing fiscal space [10]. - Since early 2026, U.S. Treasury yields have shown a sharp V-shaped trend. The market's pricing logic has shifted from recession hedging to inflation repricing. In the context of stagflation, U.S. Treasuries are characterized by high volatility and low directionality [11]. Summary by Directory Key Interpretations - The U.S. national debt exceeded $39 trillion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio was close to 130%. The annual debt interest expenditure exceeded $1.2 trillion, squeezing fiscal space [10]. - U.S. Treasury yields showed a sharp V-shaped trend, and the market's pricing logic shifted from recession hedging to inflation repricing. In the context of stagflation, U.S. Treasuries are characterized by high volatility and low directionality [11]. U.S. Treasury Interest Rates - As of March 20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 24bp in two weeks to 4.39%. The 2-year yield rose 32bp, and the 30-year yield rose 19bp, with the yield curve steepening bearishly [3]. U.S. Treasury Market - In early March, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance declined slightly. The issuance amounts were $57.77 billion for 3-year, $38.92 billion for 10-year, and $21.97 billion for 30-year Treasuries. The U.S. fiscal deficit in February fell to $307.501 billion, and the 12-month cumulative deficit remained at $1.63 trillion [3]. Derivatives Market - The net short position in U.S. Treasury futures declined slightly. As of March 17, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers fell to 4.77 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained in a net short position, falling to 42,300 contracts [3]. Liquidity - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Powell said no rate cuts would be made until inflation improved. The TGA deposit balance increased by $28.854 billion in two weeks as of March 18, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool increased by $11.848 billion in two weeks, tightening bank system liquidity [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - COMEX gold futures dropped 3.68% to $4,823.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures dropped 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce; Shanghai gold night - trading session closed down 2.23% at 1088.90 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver closed down 4.44% at 19,170 yuan per kilogram. The market short - term uncertainty is high, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 3.68% to $4,823.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. Shanghai gold night - trading session closed down 2.23% at 1088.90 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver closed down 4.44% at 19,170 yuan per kilogram [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.74% to 100.30, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose nearly 6.5 basis points to 4.265% [2] 3.2. Important Information - On March 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 2.571 tons to 1066.993 tons; the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 125.35 tons to 15,264.4 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 77.4% [1] - The U.S. February PPI rose 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.0%, previous 2.8%), and rose 0.7% month - on - month (estimated 0.3%, previous 0.5%); the core PPI rose 3.9% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.5%), and rose 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.8%) [1] - At the Fed's March interest - rate meeting early today, the federal funds rate was kept unchanged, meeting market expectations. The Fed pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle - East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Powell said no rate cuts until inflation improves [1] - U.S. media reported that the U.S. wants to destroy Iran's military power and end the war as soon as possible, while Israel insists on hunting down Iranian leaders. Trump hopes Israel to suspend further attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Iranian energy facilities were attacked, and Iran vowed to strike back at the oil facilities of three Middle - East countries [1] 3.3. Market Logic - On Wednesday, the attack on Iran's South Pars petrochemical facilities caused a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. The U.S. February producer price index rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market estimate. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, meeting market expectations [1] - The expansion of the U.S. - Iran conflict to civilian oil facilities led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, suppressing COMEX gold and silver prices, which found support at around $4800 per ounce for gold and $75 per ounce for silver [2] 3.4. Trading Strategy - Due to high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market is highly uncertain in the short term, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. Shanghai gold night session closed down 0.94% at 1137.50 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.60% at 21706 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 12, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.429 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.852 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 19.5% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the daily price limit is 17%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 18%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the daily price limit is 20%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 21%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 22% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, with an estimate of 215,000 and a previous value of 213,000 [1] - Iran's new supreme leader stated in his first statement that Iran will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts may be opened if necessary. Trump said that the US makes a lot of money when oil prices rise and it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and many ships can still pass through the strait if coordinated with the Iranian navy [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index rose 0.48% to 99.74, strengthening for the third consecutive trading day. The yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise to 4.269%. Iran's new supreme leader's first statement showed a tough stance. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 10.62% to $101.75 per barrel on Thursday, closing above the $100 mark again after four years. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, COMEX gold and COMEX silver both declined on Thursday. The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran have supported the gold price to some extent due to market risk - aversion sentiment [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bearish on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise of the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz increasing future inflation expectations and the Fed officials' cautious signals on interest - rate cuts, support the US dollar index and suppress gold and silver prices, causing short - term price declines. If the Treasury yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, gold prices still face a risk of further decline. However, if the interest - rate expectations change or the market's risk - aversion sentiment heats up again, gold prices may rise again [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On March 4, 2026, Shanghai gold futures fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05 [2] 3.2 Strategy View - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, down 4.43% from the previous day; the trading volume was 25.97 million lots, up 17.73%; the open interest was 42.02 million lots, up 3.22%; the inventory was 1029 tons, down 0.30% [6] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 5313.90 US dollars/ounce, up 1.75%; the closing price of the active contract was 1182.00 yuan/gram, down 1.27%; the trading volume was 54.49 million lots, up 24.12% [6] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 29.48 million lots, down 4.85%; the inventory was 105.06 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 55.76 billion yuan, down 6.06% [6] - **AuT + D**: The trading volume was 81.12 tons, up 33.10%; the open interest was 243.29 tons, up 2.25% [6] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 82.30 US dollars/ounce, down 8.16%; the open interest was 12.55 million lots, down 4.59%; the inventory was 11047 tons, down 0.67% [6] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 94.62 US dollars/ounce, up 5.16%; the closing price of the active contract was 21645.00 yuan/kilogram, down 11.40%; the trading volume was 191.03 million lots, up 43.74% [6] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 51.39 million lots, down 3.06%; the inventory was 307.48 tons, down 0.63%; the settled funds were 30.032 billion yuan, down 14.11% [6] - **AgT + D**: The trading volume was 504.11 tons, down 38.53%; the open interest was 2979.878 tons, up 0.97% [6] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The holdings of SPDR US, iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, GOLD UK, and SGBS Switzerland were N/A, 499.61 tons, 30.66 tons, 54.37 tons, 29.81 tons, and 35.29 tons respectively. The holdings of iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK remained unchanged, and SGBS Switzerland decreased slightly [63] - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price was 74.68 US dollars, down 8.45%. The holdings of SLV US, ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada were N/A, 486.13 tons, 6747.36 tons, and 1583.04 tons respectively. The holdings of ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada remained unchanged [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Middle - East situation continues to escalate, the US dollar rebounds significantly, and the gold price rises first and then falls. Although the Middle - East situation is tense, the risk - aversion sentiment cannot continuously drive up the gold price, and the rebound of the US dollar suppresses the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expands to 5.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, due to the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict and the significant rebound of the US dollar, the silver price quickly drops and gives back all the previous day's gains. The risk - aversion sentiment cannot continuously drive up the silver price, but the upward trend of the silver price remains unchanged, and the premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 2,750 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US stocks' three major indexes closed with mixed results, European stocks' three major indexes all closed down, US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 9.14 basis points to 4.036%), the US dollar index rose 0.93% to 98.55, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 6.9012, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.68% to $5,335.90 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock and bond market performance, COMEX silver futures fell 3.95% to $89.61 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 105,060 kg and remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward and the k - line is above it, the main net long position increases [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 640 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants increases by 2,840 kg to 309,436 kg, the 20 - day moving average is downward and the k - line is below it, the main net long position decreases [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda; UK Office for Budget Responsibility releases spring forecasts, and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves gives a budget update speech in Parliament; German Chancellor Merz will visit the US to meet with US President Trump. - 07:30: Japan's January unemployment rate. - All - day: Thailand, India, and Israel are on holiday. - 08:30: South Korea's February manufacturing PMI. - 18:00: Eurozone's February CPI flash estimate. - 22:55: New York Fed President John Williams gives a keynote speech at an event. - 23:30: ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaks. - 23:40: Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen speaks. - Next day 00:45: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (2026 FOMC voter) speaks [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro - level. The regulatory pressure still exists, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment of the silver price [9][12]. - **Silver**: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense US - Iran relations, the possibility of a new Fed chairman being determined with an increasing expectation of easing, the significant decline of the US dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff issue, the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory with a hot supply - shortage game. Negative factors include the diminishing marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed with a possible suspension of interest - rate cuts, the deterioration of risk preference, and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold on March 2, 2026, are 169,468, an increase of 3,206 (1.93%) compared to March 1; the short positions are 42,059, a decrease of 931 (- 2.17%); the net long position is 127,409, an increase of 4,137 (3.36%) [37]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver on March 2, 2026, are 283,761, an increase of 7,159 (2.59%) compared to February 27; the short positions are 285,652, an increase of 7,291 (2.62%); the net short position is - 1,891, an increase of - 132 (7.50%) [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the factors influencing gold prices, including U.S. Treasury yields, the USD-RMB exchange rate, and geopolitical crises, while questioning the future of gold as an investment asset. Group 1: Key Variables Affecting Gold Prices - The first key variable is U.S. Treasury yields, which have recently declined due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership change and interest rate cuts. A decrease in U.S. interest rates typically leads to an increase in Treasury prices, thereby lowering yields [2]. - The second variable is the USD-RMB exchange rate and the evolving perception of the U.S. dollar. Currently, the dollar is in a phase of weakness, with the RMB showing slight appreciation. Additionally, there is a shift in global asset allocation, with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin gaining attention. The long-standing dominance of the dollar as a global currency anchor, established since the Bretton Woods system in 1945, is being questioned [2]. - The third variable is geopolitical crises. Historically, since 1972, the cycles of gold price fluctuations have been closely tied to U.S. Treasury yields, the credibility of the dollar, and geopolitical tensions. The article prompts consideration of how Treasury yields will change, the adjustments in dollar interest rates, and the potential resolution of geopolitical crises [2].