来源：金融界AI电报 Helaba的Samuel Will在一份报告中称，日本的财政状况依然紧张，2026年预算有可能出现恶化，而日本 国债收益率正反映了这一点。这位外汇策略师称："在预算平衡状况近年来有所改善，甚至趋向于预算 平衡之后，我们预计2026年会出现恶化。"他称，日本国债已经以更高的风险溢价对预期的政府支出增 加作出了反应。"政府正通过投资和加强防卫能力来专注于增长，但必须密切关注债务上升和地缘政治 紧张局势升温的风险。"据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，10年期日本国债收益率下跌1.9个基点，至 1.792%，30年期日本国债收益率上涨0.4个基点，至3.331%。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 吴霜 王增武直言，当前经济金融运行逻辑已从线性转向非线性，2008 年全球金融危机引发的 "伊丽莎白女王 之问"——"为何学界未能预判如此重大的危机"，其核心答案便与非线性特征下的不确定性刻画相关。 他指出，随着经济进入高质量增长阶段，市场主体的投资、消费、出口意愿趋于谨慎，根源在于经济金 融环境中的不确定性显著增大，传统基于确定性或可量化风险的决策框架已难以适配 "看不见未来" 的 市场现状。 "投资的核心是在不确定性中寻找确定性溢价，而非线性数学期望正是刻画这种不确定性的关键理论工 具。" 王增武解释道，传统投资决策中追求的 "风险溢价"，仅能覆盖可量化的风险部分，而当前市场更 多面临的是 "模糊性"—— 即已知资产涨跌两种可能，但无法精确判断其发生概率，如涨势概率在 60%-70% 区间却难以确定具体数值，这种模糊性正是不确定性的核心构成，也是非线性数学期望的主 要刻画对象。 为让理论更易理解，王增武通过数学表达式对比了不同场景下的收益逻辑：定期存款与连续复利对应的 是时间价值与绝对收益，传统风险资产投资叠加了风险溢价，而在非线性框架下，资产收益还应包含 "均值不确定性溢价" 与 ...

投资要点： 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880520120005 郭佼佼(分析师) 021-38031042 | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 ——资产配置全球跟踪 2025 年 11 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 11/17-11/21，全球风险下降，权益与商品整体同步回落，科技板块明显承压。美联储 12 月降息概率再度逆转至 71%。美元兑日元直逼 160 关口。日央行加息压力加剧。 资产概览：美元兑日元逼近 160 关口 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 成交活跃度上升，上证 50 跌幅最小 2025.11.23 美国政府停摆结束，联储降息预期放缓 2025.11.19 资产概览：美联储降息预期出现逆转 2025.11.18 科技制造供需紧张，消费出行景气改善 2025.11.18 融资资金流入加速，外资流入放缓 2025.11.17 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3931.05 | 4564.95 | 3008.29 | 3042.34 | 7061.95 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.40 | -0.51 | -0.40 | -1.12 | -0.85 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.14 | 12.03 | 32.17 | 25.98 | 18.06 | | 环比变化 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.27 | -0.41 | 0.09 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | 3.70 | 5.77 | -0.38 | -0.24 | 2.82 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | -0.04 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪 ...

- The report tracks the performance of various broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For instance, on November 18, 2025, all tracked indices fell, with the CSI 2000 and CSI 500 experiencing the largest declines of -1.32% and -1.17%, respectively[1][2][10] - The report compares the indices against their moving averages and their positions relative to the highest and lowest points over the past 250 trading days. For example, all tracked indices have fallen below their 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the CSI 2000 still above its 20-day moving average[13] - The report provides data on the trading volume and turnover rates of the indices. On November 18, 2025, the CSI 2000 had the highest trading volume share at 24.98%, followed by the CSI 300 at 22.28% and the CSI 1000 at 22.17%. The turnover rates for these indices were 4.48, 2.85, and 2.83, respectively[15] - The report analyzes the distribution of daily returns for the indices, noting that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative kurtosis deviation, while the CSI 1000 has the smallest. The CSI 2000 has the smallest negative skewness, while the SSE 50 has the largest[21][23] - The report examines the risk premiums of the indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield. As of November 18, 2025, the SSE 50 and CSI 300 had relatively high 5-year percentile risk premiums of 37.62% and 24.29%, respectively, while the CSI 2000 and CSI 500 had lower values of 15.95% and 13.41%[25][28][29] - The report evaluates the PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months) of the indices as a measure of valuation. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 had high 5-year percentile values of 96.86% and 95.45%, respectively, while the CSI 2000 and ChiNext Index had lower values of 82.64% and 55.04%[37][40][41] - The report assesses the stock-bond yield ratio, which compares the inverse of the PE-TTM to the 10-year government bond yield. None of the indices were above their 80% percentile (opportunity value), and none were below their 20% percentile (danger value)[43] - The report tracks the dividend yields of the indices, noting that the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 had relatively high 5-year historical percentile values of 70.58% and 39.17%, respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 had lower values of 16.94% and 13.55%[45][50][51] - The report monitors the net asset value break rates of the indices, indicating the proportion of stocks trading below their net asset value. As of the latest data, the break rates were 22.0% for the SSE 50, 16.0% for the CSI 300, 11.6% for the CSI 500, 7.2% for the CSI 1000, 2.45% for the CSI 2000, 1.0% for the ChiNext Index, and 5.65% for the CSI All Share Index[52]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.114, UK 4.553, France 3.457, Germany 2.706, Italy 3.456, Spain 3.208, Switzerland 0.138, Greece 3.332, Japan 1.739, Brazil 6.245, China 1.805, Australia 4.441, New Zealand 4.150 [2] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.574, UK 3.795, Germany 2.017, Japan 0.918, Italy 2.214, China (1Y yield) 1.410, Australia 3.668 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.324, South Africa zar 17.185, South Korean won 1462.250, Thai baht 32.440, Malaysian ringgit 4.163 [2] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 7.109, off - shore RMB 7.111, RMB central parity rate 7.086, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.967 [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6617.320, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46091.740, NASDAQ 22432.850, Mexican stock index 61984.450, UK stock index 9552.300, French CAC 7967.930, German DAX 23180.530, Spanish stock index 15827.000, Japanese Nikkei 48702.980, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 25930.030, Shanghai Composite Index 3939.813, Taiwan stock index 26756.120, South Korean stock index 3953.620, Indian stock index 8361.926, Thai stock index 1270.040, Malaysian stock index 1614.060, Australian stock index 8738.270, emerging - economy stock index 1361.750 [2] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.631, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 406.730 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3939.81 (down 0.81%), CSI 300 closing price 4568.19 (down 0.65%), SSE 50 closing price 3003.02 (down 0.30%), ChiNext closing price 3069.22 (down 1.16%), CSI 500 closing price 7151.02 (down 1.17%) [3] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 14.06 (down 0.08), SSE 50 11.90 (down 0.03), CSI 500 32.57 (down 0.41), S&P 500 27.51 (down 0.23), German DAX 17.98 (down 0.32) [3] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.48 (up 0.06), German DAX 2.86 (up 0.11) [3] - Fund flow: Latest A - share fund flow - 1462.75, motherboard - 1190.40, ChiNext - 214.75, CSI 300 - 225.97; 5 - day average A - share fund flow - 712.73, motherboard - 585.51, ChiNext - 90.24, CSI 300 - 119.58 [3] - Transaction amount: Latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19260.68 (up 152.77), CSI 300 4201.50 (down 187.90), SSE 50 1062.01 (down 56.04), SME board 4127.54 (up 19.72), ChiNext 5015.67 (up 149.23) [4] - Main contract basis: IF basis - 13.19 (down 0.29%), IH basis - 5.42 (down 0.18%), IC basis - 71.22 (down 1.00%) [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of treasury bond futures: T2303 108.50 (up 0.01%), TF2303 105.92 (up 0.01%), T2306 108.25 (up 0.01%), TF2306 105.89 (unchanged) [4] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.5711% (up 4.00 BP), R007 1.5294% (unchanged), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [4]

Group 1: Asset Overview - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have reversed, leading to volatile movements in gold and silver prices during the week of November 10-14, with the Nasdaq experiencing significant sell-offs [1] - The Brazilian IBOVESPA index has seen a monthly increase of 10% [1] Group 2: Investment Highlights - As of the week ending November 14, commodities have outperformed equities and bonds, with COMEX silver and Shanghai gold leading in gains. Oil prices have also risen, while global stock market performance has shown significant divergence [6][19] - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong, US, and Indian stocks has marginally decreased, indicating a weakening relationship [6][7] - The risk premium of A-shares relative to 10-year government bonds has increased, while the risk premium of US stocks relative to 10-year US Treasuries has decreased [9][12] Group 3: Equity Market Performance - Hong Kong and Brazilian stocks continue to rise, with the IBOVESPA up 10% over the past month. The global stock market overall increased by 0.4% as of November 14, with developed markets showing slight rebounds [19][24] - In emerging markets, A-share indices generally declined, with the ChiNext 50 and the ChiNext index experiencing the most significant pullbacks of -3.8% and -3.0%, respectively [19][24] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The Chinese bond market is characterized by a "bull steep" yield curve, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening. The 10-year yield remains stable at 1.81% [37][39] - In contrast, the US bond market exhibits a "bear flat" yield curve, with the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropping to 44.4% from 66.9% [37][39] Group 5: Commodity and Currency Trends - Silver and copper have led commodity gains, with the CRB commodity index rising by 0.5%. The dollar index has decreased by 0.3%, while major currencies like the euro and pound have appreciated against the dollar [6][12] - The gold-to-oil ratio has increased, while the gold-to-silver and gold-to-copper ratios have decreased, indicating changing dynamics in the precious metals market [12][18]

- The report provides a snapshot of the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting daily, monthly, and yearly changes in index values, with indices like CSI 2000 showing the highest daily increase of 0.63% and CSI 1000 at 0.27%[10][11][14] - CSI 2000 demonstrated a relatively independent trend, breaking through its 250-day high, while other indices remained below their 5-day moving averages[14] - Turnover rates and trading volume proportions were analyzed, with CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate at 4.4 and the largest trading volume proportion at 25.29%[16] - The distribution of daily returns was examined, showing that CSI 2000 had the smallest negative skewness, while the ChiNext Index had the largest negative kurtosis[22][24] - Risk premium analysis was conducted using the 10-year government bond yield as a risk-free rate benchmark, revealing that CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 had relatively high risk premiums at 64.29% and 56.75%, respectively, over the past five years[26][30][33] - PE-TTM values were evaluated as a valuation metric, with CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing high historical percentiles at 98.1% and 95.95%, respectively[36][39][40] - Dividend yield analysis indicated that the ChiNext Index had the highest 5-year historical percentile at 69.5%, while CSI 2000 had the lowest at 10.0%[44][49][50] - Current net-breaking rates were reported, with CSI 2000 having the lowest rate at 2.2%, reflecting market valuation attitudes[51][53]

英伟达这家公司市值在一夜之间缩水1686.42亿美元，换成人民币大约11966.67亿元，这个账单够吓人，说明资金撤出速度让人目瞪口呆； 热门的中概股也没能幸免，纳斯达克中国金龙指数当日收跌1.59%，百度当日跌超6%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，小鹏和蔚来分别跌超3%，中概板块几乎是一片灰 色； 在这之前，美国政府刚刚经历了有史以来最长的43天停摆，停摆结束后重启运作，这个过程搞得数据发布时间乱七八糟，让市场多了一层不确定性； 停摆期间很多经济数据延后发布，信息缺口本身就像缺个指挥员，市场难免焦躁，投资者对未来的判断被打上了大大的问号； 美股一夜大跌，好像有人把舞台的灯全关了，英伟达市值蒸发得像是被人用手一挥，这事儿得说清楚，别让大家只记住"跌了"两个字，后面还有一串细节值 得看懂，接下来我把来龙去脉按时间和过程讲清楚，让你知道发生了什么，再别糊里糊涂地跟风恐慌。 11月13日美股收盘，三大指数集体下行，场面比较惨烈，尤其中小科技股被揍得更狠； 当天道琼斯下跌1.65%，标普500跌1.66%，纳指跌2.29%，这些数字说明了市场情绪一锅端式的恐慌； 市场上大型科技股普遍走弱，特斯拉当日跌超6%，英伟达下跌逾3%，谷 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Research Team: Macroeconomic Team of the Research Center - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.120%, 4.437%, 3.415% respectively. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was 0.050, and the one - year change was - 0.153 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the UK, Germany, Japan, etc. were 3.760%, 2.026%, 0.927% respectively. There were also different changes in different time periods. For instance, the latest change in the UK was 0.037, and the one - year change was - 0.746 [3]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On November 13, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.299, 17.043 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 0.13%, and the one - year change was - 7.78% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On November 13, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6737.490, 47457.220, 22870.360 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change of the S&P 500 was - 1.66%, and the one - year change was 16.51% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - There were different performance changes in different time periods for US investment - grade credit bonds, euro - zone investment - grade credit bonds, etc. For example, the latest change of US investment - grade credit bonds was - 0.37%, and the one - year change was 5.99% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 4029.50, 4702.07 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 14.41, 12.13 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.55, with a环比 change of 0.01; the risk premium of German DAX was 2.66, with a环比 change of 0.27 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc. were 496.42, 272.41 respectively, and there were corresponding 5 - day average values [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 20419.62, 5100.61 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 25.07, - 4.87, - 86.29 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 108.410, 105.885 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3887%, 1.5005%, 1.5800% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]