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8月经济数据低于预期,增长压力开始显现
First Capital Securities· 2025-09-15 12:19
Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.8%[4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth from January to August is 6.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to January to July[4] - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises in August was -0.4%, marking the first negative growth since 2024, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from July[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to August showed a cumulative growth of only 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 1.3%, and down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[4] - Real estate investment saw a sharp decline of -12.9% year-on-year from January to August, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[4] Consumer Activity - The total retail sales of consumer goods in August nominally grew by 3.4%, below the expected 3.8%, and down 0.3 percentage points from July[5] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for retail sales from January to August is 4.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to January to July[5] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, with an average of 5.2% from January to August remaining stable[5] Real Estate Market - The National Housing Market Index for August was 93.1, down 0.2 percentage points from July, marking five consecutive months of decline[6] - The year-on-year growth rate for new housing starts from January to August was -19.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period[6] Trade Balance - In August, the trade surplus was $102.3 billion, an increase of $4.1 billion from July, with a cumulative trade surplus of $785.3 billion from January to August, up 22% year-on-year[10]