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构建广义价格指数体系,提升宏观经济治理能力水平 | 宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-02-26 10:36
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of price level formation and regulation in macroeconomic management, advocating for a broader price index system that combines various economic indicators to better reflect the overall economic situation [2][6][7]. Group 1: Price Index System - A comprehensive price index system is necessary to accurately gauge macroeconomic conditions, moving beyond the reliance on CPI as the sole indicator [4][7]. - Current indicators like CPI (0.5%), PPI (-2.3%), and GDP deflator (-0.7%) show discrepancies that suggest a need for a more integrated approach to price measurement [5][10]. - The integration of both stock and flow price indicators, as well as financial and real economy indicators, is essential for effective macroeconomic analysis [6][7]. Group 2: Micro and Macro Price Index Divergence - There exists a divergence between micro and macro price indices, particularly during structural changes or technological innovations, which traditional methods struggle to capture accurately [9][11]. - The introduction of new products and technologies can lead to an underestimation of price increases, complicating the understanding of actual economic conditions [9][10]. - The current economic environment in China, characterized by rapid industrial upgrades and shifts in consumption patterns, necessitates a nuanced understanding of price dynamics [11]. Group 3: Historical Insights and Policy Implications - Historical experiences indicate that managing deflation is more challenging than managing inflation, with different impacts on producers and consumers [13][14]. - Effective price governance requires not only short-term policy measures but also medium-term structural reforms to address underlying market distortions [15][16]. - The importance of restoring corporate vitality and ensuring efficient resource allocation is highlighted as crucial for overcoming economic stagnation and enhancing wage levels [16].