Core Viewpoint - The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve indicate increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlook, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - Some officials believe that a weakening labor market or slight, temporary inflation pressure from tariffs could justify rate cuts later this year [1][2]. - Despite the potential for rate cuts, many officials feel that the current interest rate level is not significantly above the neutral rate, suggesting any adjustments may be limited [2][6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The minutes highlight significant uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and persistence of tariffs' impact on inflation, with some officials believing tariffs will have a more lasting effect [1][3]. - Economists generally expect tariffs to raise inflation and hinder economic growth, although current economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs [3][4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set to be released on July 15, is anticipated to provide further insights into inflation trends [3]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Policy Caution - Most officials view the overall U.S. economy as stable, allowing for a patient approach to interest rate adjustments, despite some localized weakness in the job market [6]. - The minutes indicate that while uncertainty around inflation and economic outlook has decreased, a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments is still warranted [6]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding the regular evaluation of the Fed's policy framework and potential enhancements to communication tools, including adjustments to the quarterly economic projections [6].

Core Viewpoint - Lens Technology has successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong within 100 days, raising approximately HKD 4.768 billion with a share price of HKD 18.18, reflecting a strong market interest in its products and services related to Apple devices [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lens Technology is a well-known player in the supply chain for Apple, having collaborated for 19 years, providing components for various Apple products including iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac, and Apple Vision Pro [1]. - The company has already established manufacturing processes for ultra-thin flexible glass (UTG) and transparent polyimide (CPI) for foldable screens, and is a core supplier for major clients in North America [2][3]. Group 2: IPO and Funding Utilization - The IPO attracted 10 cornerstone investors, raising a total of approximately USD 191 million (around HKD 1.499 billion), with notable investors including Xiaomi Group and UBS [3]. - The funds raised will be allocated as follows: approximately 48% for expanding product and service offerings, 28% for overseas business expansion in Vietnam and Thailand, 14% for enhancing vertical integration capabilities, and 10% for working capital and other general corporate purposes [3]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Production Plans - Lens Technology is advancing its global footprint, with new production lines in Thailand and Vietnam expected to commence operations by the end of 2025 [4]. - The company aims to enhance manufacturing capabilities and reduce logistics costs while supporting the development of next-generation smart terminal foldable screen technologies [4]. Group 4: Diversification Strategy - The company is actively reducing its reliance on Apple, with revenue from its largest client decreasing from 71% in 2022 to 49.5% in 2024, while increasing revenue from domestic brands from 18% to 41% [6][7]. - Lens Technology is expanding into new sectors such as smart automotive, AI glasses, and humanoid robots, with significant progress in developing core components for these technologies [6][7].

整治价格内卷初显效。 7月9日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，6月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%， 环比降幅比上月收窄，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，创近14个月以来新高。工业生产者 出厂价格指数（PPI）环比降幅与上月相同，同比降幅扩大，但部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳 回升态势。 值得一提的是，部分供需关系改善的行业，治理企业低价无序竞争力度加大，新能源汽车、光伏设备零部 件和锂离子电池等制造价格改善。 CPI同比结束持续4个月的下降走势 6月份，CPI同比上涨0.1%。其中食品价格同比下降0.3%，非食品价格同比上涨0.1%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，CPI同比在连续下降4个月后转涨，这主要受工业消费品价格有 所回升影响。 6月份工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的1.0%收窄至0.5%，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月减少约0.18个百 分点。其中，受国际大宗商品价格变动影响，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨39.2%和15.9%，合计 影响CPI同比上涨约0.21个百分点；汽车价格降幅逐步收窄，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格同比分别下 降3.4%和2.5 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index ESG Sustainable Development 40 Index (ESG 40) has shown a slight increase of 0.2% to 1654.07 points, with a trading volume of 28.254 billion yuan, reflecting the performance of high ESG-rated companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The ESG 40 Index has increased by 1.04% over the past month and 0.87% over the last three months, but has decreased by 2.56% year-to-date [1] - The index is based on the ECPI ESG rating method, selecting 40 listed companies from the Shanghai 180 Corporate Governance Index that have high ESG ratings [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the ESG 40 Index include: Industrial Bank (3.5%), Shengyi Technology (3.22%), Daqin Railway (3.2%), New China Life Insurance (3.17%), Bank of Communications (3.01%), Agricultural Bank of China (2.87%), Hengrui Medicine (2.85%), Sany Heavy Industry (2.85%), Juhua Co. (2.8%), and Huadian International (2.77%) [1] - The index is fully composed of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the ESG 40 Index is as follows: Industrial (34.29%), Financial (12.54%), Utilities (11.95%), Materials (9.53%), Consumer Staples (6.85%), Consumer Discretionary (6.84%), Healthcare (5.36%), Energy (4.46%), Information Technology (3.22%), Communication Services (2.63%), and Real Estate (2.32%) [2] Group 4: Sample Adjustment Rules - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of January and July [3] - The sample adjustment typically does not exceed 10%, unless more than 10% of the old samples are removed from the sample space [3] - In cases of significant changes in the ECPI ESG ratings, the index may undergo temporary adjustments [3]

联系人：黄雯瑜 邮箱：huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 指数强势突破，贴水大幅收敛 ——大类资产周报（20250623-20250629） 分析师：朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱：zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年6月30日 分析师：汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱：tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周利多政策密集释放，国内金融促消费政策提振市场信心，贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，美联储降息预期升温，整体风险偏好 有所修复，推动资金回流成长股，但基本面实质压力未消，企业盈利前瞻指数创年内新低（BCI 49.3），PPI预期下行+CPI 连续负增长凸显通缩压力，本周商品普遍承压，CRB指数跌4.09%，原油领跌。央行主动释放流动性，政策信号指数强势， 信贷效率边际改善但仍较弱，本周超长端债券强势，短端表现平淡。美元指数创三年半新低，在美元弱势周期下，人民币 资产吸引力提升，本周权益市场强势突破，全A日均成交额放量（+22.5%）、ET ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about the declining quality of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), indicating that federal budget cuts may be undermining the reliability of key economic indicators such as inflation and employment [1][3] - Powell highlighted that while current data is not yet at a "worrisome" level, the trend of reduced survey coverage by the BLS is indeed troubling, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic data for decision-making by the Fed, Congress, and businesses [1][3] Data Quality Risks - Specific signs of data quality risks have emerged, with the BLS suspending on-site data collection for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in several cities, leading to approximately 30% of May's CPI data relying on estimates, a figure three times the historical average [3] - Concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of employment data, with initial estimates of 139,000 new non-farm jobs in May potentially being revised down to around 100,000 due to statistical omissions from small businesses affected by tariff policies [3] Budget Cuts Impact - The deep-rooted issue points to reduced federal funding, with the Trump administration's proposed budget cuts of $56 million to the BLS continuing the trend of fiscal tightening observed earlier in the year [3] - The funding shortfall has directly weakened the BLS's data collection capabilities, as the agency needs to cover 75 cities and 200 product categories to calculate the CPI, but is increasingly relying on estimation models due to a shrinking statistical network [3] Market Concerns - There are growing market concerns that distorted data may mislead the Federal Reserve's policy direction, potentially resulting in monetary decisions that do not align with the actual economic cycle if inflation is underestimated or employment market weaknesses are obscured [3]

美联储主席鲍威尔本周明确表示，不准备屈从特朗普立即降息的要求。那么，什么能让他改变主意？以 下是鲍威尔在国会证词中揭示的关键条件。 鲍威尔关注的下一个关键通胀数据是三周后公布的6月消费者价格指数（CPI）。他表示，与关税相关 的通胀应在未来几个月显现："夏季的6月和7月数据会开始反映关税影响。" 若6月CPI环比涨幅达0.2%或更高，美联储至少会推迟到9月再议降息；若录得像5月0.1%的低位涨幅， 则可能重燃7月降息预期。 鲍威尔承认："若通胀低于预期，可能需要更早降息。"但他拒绝锁定具体会议："不想指定某个会议节 点。" 就业市场成变数 根据法律规定，美联储需维持低通胀，同时肩负维持强劲就业市场的同等重任。 7月降息希望渺茫 鲍威尔坚信，高关税至少会暂时推高通胀，他希望先观察物价涨幅再决定降息时机。"我们在观察实测 通胀数据的变化，"鲍威尔本周在国会半年度证词中称，"总得有人为关税买单。" 他强调，美联储若过早降息导致通胀反弹，风险远高于多等一段时间确保物价压力可控。"如果政策失 误，人们将长期承担代价。"鲍威尔的表态与美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼形成反差，后者称若当前通胀趋势 持续，支持7月降息，但尚未有其他高官 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada rose by 1.7% year-on-year in May, remaining unchanged from April. Excluding energy, the CPI increased by 2.7%, a slowdown from April's 2.9% [1][4] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.6%, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.2% [1] Price Changes by Category - Housing prices saw a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in May, down from 3.4% in April. Rent prices rose by 4.5%, lower than April's 5.2% [3][5] - Travel prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in May, contrasting with a 6.7% increase in April. Airline ticket prices fell by 10.1%, with an expanded decline [3] - Gasoline prices continued to decline, down 15.5% year-on-year in May, compared to an 18.1% drop in April. However, there was a month-on-month increase of 1.9% due to rising refining profits [3] - Mobile service prices saw a reduced year-on-year decline of 5.5% in May, compared to 10.8% in April, with a month-on-month increase of 7.2% due to the end of promotional activities [3] - New car prices increased by 4.9% year-on-year in May, up from 4.6% in April [3] Market Analysis - The slowdown in rent increases and the decline in travel prices exerted downward pressure on the CPI, while the reduced declines in gasoline and mobile service prices provided upward support [4] - The increase in rental supply and a slowdown in population growth in Ontario contributed to the significant deceleration in rent price increases, affecting the national average [4] - Mortgage interest costs have seen a slowdown for the 21st consecutive month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% in May, down from 6.8% previously [4] - The Canadian Statistics Agency noted that U.S. tariffs and Canada's countermeasures could impact final consumer prices, but the specific effects are already embedded in the collected final prices, negating the need for special adjustments to the CPI [4]

ab 20 June 2025 Global Research Global Inflation Strategy The Global Inflation Friday Optimistic on oil persistence, pessimistic on the economy There is nothing quite like a round of volatility in oil to shake up inflation linked markets. Trading betas aren't fit for big shocks, but neither are macro relationships. What you think about shock persistence and other feedback relationships matter just as much. And of course positioning may be revealed. What can we say? Interest Rates Global Giles Gale Strategis ...