Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a "robust" investment strategy to navigate market fluctuations successfully, contrasting it with the high-risk "Russian roulette" approach that can lead to significant losses [2][6][8]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The "robust" strategy, as proposed by Nassim Taleb, allows an investment portfolio to withstand various market scenarios, ensuring that investors can thrive in both bull and bear markets [2][6]. - The "Russian roulette" strategy is characterized by a focus on upward market movements while ignoring potential downturns, which can lead to catastrophic financial consequences [3][5][7]. - Successful investors, like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, utilize a "robust" strategy that emphasizes long-term stability and risk management, avoiding investments that exceed their risk tolerance [7][8]. Group 2: Historical Context and Examples - Historical examples illustrate the dangers of the "Russian roulette" strategy, where investors may experience short-term gains but ultimately face devastating losses, as seen in the case of an emerging market bond investor who lost $300 million in one quarter [5][6]. - The article references Buffett's analogy of a gun with a single bullet among many chambers, highlighting the inherent risks of high-stakes investments [4][7]. - The narrative of Odysseus from "The Odyssey" serves as a metaphor for the importance of resisting tempting but dangerous investments, reinforcing the need for a disciplined approach to investing [8].

上证指数突破10年新高，牛市的呼声一浪高过一浪。但是，牛市"赚钱不易"已成为很多投资者面临的问题，如何"全身而退"更是成功与否的关键。那么， 如何才能在投资中笑到最后？ 2013年到2015年的大行情里，很多加杠杆炒热点概念的投资者，都会连续两三年感觉良好，甚至平地起高楼，股市总资产从数十万元上涨到数千万元，但当 股市扭头向下时，这些投资者不仅亏掉了收益，甚至亏掉了本金，账户穿仓，倒欠证券公司的钱。 如何才能在牛市里笑到最后？那就是《黑天鹅》作者塔勒布提出的"遍历性"策略，所谓"遍历性"策略就是投资组合能够经历各种情景的考验，无论牛市还是熊 市，"买入定输赢"。 与"遍历性"策略截然不同的则是"俄罗斯轮盘"。如果投资者只能承受住股市向上方向的变动，而无法承受任何向下的波动，则会将自己置于类似俄罗斯轮盘爆 仓或出局的危险境地。正如一位智者所说，"神看到未来的事情，平凡人看到眼前的事情，聪明人看到即将发生的事情。"翻翻历史，推演下未来的事情，理性 投资者就会明白如何才能笑到最后。 坚持"遍历性"投资 远离"俄罗斯轮盘" 塔勒布曾详细叙述过俄罗斯轮盘游戏：假设有个行为古怪且无聊的企业大亨，拿出1000万美元和你玩俄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a "robust" investment strategy to navigate through market fluctuations, particularly in a bull market, to ensure long-term success and avoid catastrophic losses [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The concept of "robustness" in investment, as proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, suggests that a portfolio should withstand various market scenarios, whether bullish or bearish, to avoid the pitfalls of speculative strategies like "Russian roulette" [2][6]. - Investors who only focus on upward market movements without considering potential downturns are at risk of significant losses, akin to playing a dangerous game of chance [3][4]. - Historical examples illustrate that even successful investors can face devastating losses if they do not maintain a robust investment approach, highlighting the need for caution and strategic planning [5][7]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects of Investing - The article discusses the psychological challenges investors face, particularly the temptation to follow the crowd during bullish trends, which can lead to irrational decision-making [6][8]. - It advocates for emotional resilience, encouraging investors to accept that others may achieve higher returns without feeling pressured to replicate their strategies [6][8]. - The narrative of Odysseus and the sirens serves as a metaphor for the importance of staying committed to a robust strategy and avoiding distractions that could lead to financial ruin [8].