2025 年 09 月 16 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.09.16）：蓄势 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.09.15）：震荡整 固>>--2025-09-15 证券分析师：张冬冬 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 策 略 研 究 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债全天低开高走，小幅收涨。A 股多头趋势不变，我 们维持此前判断：此次债市下跌将创下年内新低，目标位在去年 9 月份政 策转向的低点（2024 年 9 月 30 日）附近。大盘突破去年 10 月 8 日高点 后，成交量和波动率同步放大上涨，短期未看到结束的迹象，预计大方向 上股强债弱将持续，国债短期在年线位置企稳震荡后仍有下行空间。后续 展望：股市大盘突破，商品蓄势待发，债市预计短期在年线附近震荡整理 后将继续下跌。 A 股：市场全天走势 V 型反 ...

中金研究 8月数据显示[1]需求继续回落，仍在寻底中。生产端来看，工业增加值、服务业生产指数同比5.2%、5.6%（7月分别为5.7%、5.8%）。需求 端来看，8月社零同比3.4%（7月为3.7%），连续第三个月回落，但季调环比上升0.17%（7月为-0.13%）。餐饮同比两个月改善，商品同比 下降，主要受以旧换新类商品同比贡献继续下降影响，或与需求前置和补贴资金限制有关。固定资产累计同比由7月的1.6%进一步下滑至 0.5%，季调环比-0.2%（7月为-0.5%），降幅略有收窄。建筑安装工程仍然是主要拖累项，累计同比拖累固定资产投资1.6个百分点，较1-7 月扩大1.0个百分点，而设备工器具投资累计同比拉动固定资产投资2.1个百分点，较1-7月下降0.1个百分点。这也与分行业投资变化相一 致，1-8月房地产、基建、制造业投资累计同比-12.9%、5.4%、5.1%，分别较1-7月下降0.9、1.9、1.2个百分点。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观： 需求仍在寻底中 8 月数据显示需求继续回落，仍在寻底中。社零增长进一步放缓，结构延续 7 月特征 ...

#报告 法兴银行：中国牛市是否即将迎来泡沫？ https://t.co/O0YGBa2AydNone (@None):None ...

港股市场持续强势，上周，恒生指数创4年来新高，港股主题基金表现突出，年内单位净值涨 幅最高超172%。 多位业内人士表示，市场或呈现明显的牛市特点。无论是内地机构投资者通过港股通南下， 还是海外美元基金回流中国，资金流入港股市场的趋势或已经形成且在持续；看好互联网、 新能源车、AI、创新行业等方向。 【导读】 恒指创四年来新高，港股主题基金年内最高涨超172% 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 多因素助力港股"大反攻" 上周，港股市场在多方利好因素共同推动下，持续放量上攻。在全球各路资金追捧下，恒指 年内涨超31%，领涨全球主要股指。 与此同时，港股主题基金表现突出。从主动权益类基金来看，张韡管理的汇添富香港优势精 选A以172.12%的年内涨幅领跑，郑宁管理的中银港股通医药A同期单位净值增长率接近 130%，南方港股医药行业A、广发沪港深医药A、前海开源沪港深乐享生活、前海开源沪港 深核心资源A、宝盈医疗健康沪港深A等基金年内单位净值涨幅在70%~95%之间。 被动指数基金方面，广发中证香港创新药ETF今年以来单位净值涨幅达112.04%，万家中证 港股通创新药ETF、汇添富国证港股通创新药ETF、景顺长城中证港股通 ...

Market Trends - The core driving force behind the A-share market's rise this year is debt-driven capital allocation, with the proportion of margin trading in total A-share trading reaching new highs[4] - The average proportion of margin trading net purchases to circulating market value for popular stocks peaked at 9.4% (maximum 31.8%) but has since decreased to 5.5% (maximum 23.9%) after adjustments, indicating a healthier distribution of leveraged funds[4] Investment Strategy - The current bull market's main theme is clear: technology. Short-term speculative strategies like "high cut low" have low success rates, while funds are entering the market, including net inflows into ETFs and significant net purchases by main funds[5] - The market's rebound confirms that strong sectors remain strong, with greater elasticity expected after sector adjustments[5] Capital Behavior - The marginal pricing power in the first half of the year was driven by insurance and quantitative funds, focusing on high-dividend, technology growth, and small-cap stocks[7] - Recent selections in large-cap technology growth stocks indicate new capital entering the market, driven by favorable economic conditions[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include statistical estimation errors, unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations, and market volatility beyond expectations[8]

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 牛市的下一程：大类资产联动的信号 市场思考：如何理解近期大类资产波动？ 1）由于美国数据弱于预期等原因，美联储降息预期升温，对应贵金属近期 表现强势；另外油价供给端方面出现放量预期，叠加累库超预期，油价低位 震荡； 2）国内商品方面由于反内卷政策处于观察期，近两个月处于调整的态势， 这也表现为国内商品与债券收益率和股票指数相关性均回落到历史极值的低 位，近期商品市场有所企稳，相关性指标在低位出现回升。 3）股债仍然呈现跷跷板效应。本周 A 股权益市场的部分指数在高位波动中 继续创新高，成长仍是领涨风格，而债券收益率也继续创下阶段新高。结合 8 月的金融数据来看，目前信贷周期表现仍然低迷，且往后回升仍然取决于 政策落地和内生动能的修复情况。 国内：8 月 PPI 边际好转 1）8 月 CPI 同比小幅下降，PPI 同比上升，PPI-CPI 剪刀差收窄。CPI 方面， 食品项同比降幅走阔，非食品项同比回升，核心 CPI 回升。PPI 生产资料略 有回升，生活资料增速基本持平。2）8 月出口、进口增速均低于预期。中 国 8 月出口（以美元计价）同比升 4.4% ...

财通证券表示，海外方面，通胀侧仍然企稳，叠加之前非农弱势，市场降息预期延续，预期9月降息、 年内降3次。国内情绪端，市场情绪仍然向好、回调加仓仍然积极，行情已重回之前高点。展望后续： 长期行情看，政策有为+产业催化+海外宽松+新增资金等多重利好下，行情长期趋势仍然明确；短期催 化看，甲骨文订单反映算力需求、联储下周有望落地降息等多重新增催化持续，行情支撑仍然延续。配 置方向上，牛市未止，虽然市场波动加大，但主线龙头筹码未被抛弃，维持科技+周期配置思路。一方 面随着联储态度转向+就业走弱下海外流动性宽松，我们前期提示的黄金已经开始表现，往后关注创新 药热度回升以及AI行情扩散，重视拥挤度低位的恒生互联网龙头/AI应用；另一方面海外经济周期寻底 +国内反内卷持续推进，周期资源品龙头配置价值凸显。 ...

牛市就是错一次有无数的机会可以翻盘重来，有希望你也感受得到有希望熊市就是错一次就觉得天塌了，你感觉这辈子是不是都赚不了这么多钱了，机会少到只有绝望这就是容错率 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive industry catalysts, with major indices generally rising [4] - The ChiNext 50 index recorded the highest increase of 5.5%, while the Shanghai 50 index had the smallest rise at 0.9% [4] - The overall valuation of the market is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [4] Market Style and Sector Performance - There has been a noticeable divergence in market style, with small-cap stocks performing better; small-cap growth stocks rose by 3.4%, while large-cap value stocks fell by 0.2% [4] - In terms of sector performance, the electronics, real estate, and agriculture sectors performed relatively well, with increases of 6.1%, 6.0%, and 4.8% respectively [4] Important Events - Policy advancements include adjustments to the old-for-new appliance subsidy rules in Shanghai and a crackdown on malicious subsidies in the food delivery sector [5] - Economic data released this week showed that China's August exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while CPI growth slowed down [5] International Relations - Recent interactions between China and the U.S. have been frequent, with upcoming talks scheduled in Spain involving high-level officials [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors such as a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7] - Key sectors to focus on in September include power equipment, communications, computers, electronics, automobiles, and media [7] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a main focus due to liquidity-driven trends and existing upward momentum [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed at a precise 3892.74 points, indicating strong market sentiment and anticipation for upcoming events [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a 0.25% rate cut at each remaining meeting this year, which is expected to significantly impact the A-share market [1] - The A-share market's valuation, with a PE ratio of 12.8 times for the CSI 300 index, presents an attractive opportunity compared to US markets, leading to a substantial inflow of foreign capital [1] Group 2 - The three favored sectors in a bull market are technology, cyclical, and financial stocks, with technology benefiting from ample liquidity and high growth potential [2] - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2.15 trillion, indicating strong market confidence and activity [2] Group 3 - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing significant policy support, with the government emphasizing accelerated technology development and commercialization [3] - Collaborations between Chinese companies and international firms, such as the partnership between 3SBio and Pfizer, have resulted in record upfront payments, showcasing the strength of China's innovative drug industry [3] - The Hong Kong stock market's innovative drug sector rose by 2.79% following the announcement of favorable policies, reflecting market confidence [3] Group 4 - The A-share market showed resilience with a weekly increase of 1.52% for the Shanghai Composite Index and a 5.48% rise for the Sci-Tech 50 Index [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut is anticipated to drive significant capital inflows, with a target of maintaining a trading volume above 3 trillion for three consecutive days [4] - Key sectors to watch include technology, particularly in computing power and robotics, as well as cyclical stocks like rare earths and gold [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies suggest holding onto key sectors despite short-term volatility, with a focus on technology stocks and cyclical sectors ahead of the anticipated rate cut [6] - The brokerage sector is positioned for potential growth as market activity increases, with current price-to-book ratios indicating a favorable entry point [6] - Historical trends suggest that market corrections in a bull market present valuable buying opportunities, with foreign capital showing consistent net inflows [6]