从我的观察来看，Crypto 也是一个强周期性的市场，以前总以为 BTC ETF 之后 Crypto 就要迎来永恒牛市了，但现实还是让我们意识到币圈流动性低迷时期的残酷在熊市周期里成长、迭代，去更大的船和更广阔的天地看看，无疑是一种积蓄力量，为的是下一轮牛市更好地爆发。CC 的所见所闻对我也有很大启发！期待她分享更多看世界的经历EudemoniaCC🌷 (@EudemoniaCC):你好，我是CC。是的，在从清华毕业的第282天，我从Morph毕业了，结束了我这毕业前就入职的第一份全职工作。回望这一年半，我交出的毕业答卷是：从零搭起APAC大使网络，孵化出完整的区域团队，入职不到半年升任Head of https://t.co/XeKf4p2sMD ...

不要小觑任何一个有实力，还愿意拉盘的团队。目前 edgeX 的回购和费用数据都很硬，即使发币后还维持了 Top 20 的费用收入（图片是刚在 defillama 截的 1D Fee），tradfi 板块的交易量也很大我说过一个逻辑，为什么熊市仍然有 perpdex 有持续运营的驱动力，因为交易赛道是各家必争之地，如果能抗到牛市，那生态位还在的话，就能赚得盆满钵满（抽水生意懂得都懂）；即便是熊市，能维持这样的费用收入，也远远 cover 了运营成本更不用说代币本身还有高达 14% 的锁定量，现在的市场流动性砸币又能砸出去多少钱呢，真有实力的一定会想办法维持体面赚交易费用的抽水钱，长期来说利大于弊可惜这波没拿住，最近挺损失厌恶的，几个机会 $EDGE $DRIFT $SOLV 都是方向对了操作没下狠手。吃到前高想着可能短期市场流动性支撑不住持续的拉升了，没想到可能有不少空军在前高位置加仓了，OI 一直在抬Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):这 $EDGE 是在所有人都不相信高控盘会拉盘的时候，想用实力拉服所有人？很少有见空投发了之后是拉盘而不是砸盘的了edgeX 从去年以来手续费收入长期排在 Top 20， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economy in 2026 will be a year of real weak recovery, with the macro - economy consolidating its bottom, exports supporting, investment stabilizing, consumption remaining weak, prices rising moderately, and global recession risks accumulating [79]. - Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and the low - interest - rate environment unchanged. The central bank may cut interest rates ahead of other central banks when the market turns to recession trading [79]. - In asset allocation, in the short term, commodities > bonds > stocks; in the medium - to - long term, stocks > bonds > commodities [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - **Industrial Value - added**: In the first two months, the growth rate of industrial value - added accelerated, and the high - tech manufacturing industry grew by 13.1%, 6.8 percentage points faster than all industrial enterprises above a designated size [8][11]. - **Fixed - asset Investment**: At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment rebounded. In the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, many projects that should have started last year will start in 2026 [13][16]. - **Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods declined. Consumers' consumption is restricted by factors such as weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and low proportion of disposable income in GDP [17][19]. - **Inflation**: Inflation rebounded, mainly due to the base effect. The prices of eggs and pigs decreased year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in crude oil prices drove up CPI and PPI, with PPI expected to rise faster [20][23]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The overall unemployment rate increased, but the youth unemployment rate decreased. The use of AI and robots and the increase in structural unemployment make it more difficult to create new jobs [24][27][28]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The manufacturing PMI continued to be weak. In the PMI sub - items, the purchase price of main raw materials was above the boom - bust line, the ex - factory price sub - item remained stable, and other sub - items were below the boom - bust line [29][33]. - **Production and Inventory**: Production was significantly stronger than demand, the inventory of finished products was rising, and downstream demand was weaker [34][37]. - **Construction Industry**: The PMI and important sub - items of the construction industry were at a low level in recent years, indicating the downturn of the construction industry [39]. - **Exports**: Import and export growth rates were much better than expected, and exports were very resilient. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate of exports to the US was stable, and the trade surplus in the first two months exceeded $20 billion, expected to exceed last year's level, which will support the RMB exchange rate [41][43]. - **Chip Industry**: In recent years, the effect of chip import substitution has emerged. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and the scale of chip exports is increasing year by year. It is expected that China will become a net exporter of chips in 5 - 10 years [45]. - **Automobile Industry**: The production, sales, and export volume of automobiles reached new highs last year. Although the sales growth rate of domestic automobiles may face pressure due to the reduction of subsidies, the overall sales scale can probably be maintained. This year, automobile exports are expected to reach 9 - 10 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10% [48]. - **Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size**: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded, mainly due to the rapid recovery of profits in the upstream mining industry, but the profit margins of the mid - and downstream manufacturing and energy industries declined [49][53]. - **M1 and M1 - M2 Scissors Difference**: The growth rate of M1 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 scissors difference converged rapidly. Historically, when the M1 - M2 scissors difference turns positive, PPI will also turn positive, and the current stock market may be accompanied by a commodity bull market [54][56]. - **Real Estate**: The data reflecting the scale of real - estate under construction has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process. There is almost no demand for "speculating in real estate" among residents, and the stock market may be the only large - scale asset that can absorb a large amount of liquidity [58]. - **Deposit Transfer**: There is still room for deposit transfer. The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is still at a low level, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun [59][61]. - **Government Leverage**: The government department's leverage ratio is relatively low, and there is still room for increasing leverage. The loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time [64]. - **Macro - capital**: The macro - capital will remain loose for a long time. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the capital interest rate still has room to decline [66][68]. - **Bank Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange**: The bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has been in a large - scale surplus, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable [69]. 3.2 China's Energy System and Industrial Chain Advantages Highlighted by the US - Israel - Iran Conflict No detailed content provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Outlook in 2026: Caught between Supply - driven Inflation and Recession - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US and Iran makes it difficult to reach a peace agreement in the short term. Even if an agreement is reached, the damaged crude - oil production facilities cannot be repaired in the short term. High oil prices will push up inflation and suppress demand, eventually leading to an economic recession, but the market has not yet priced in the economic recession [77]. - **Other Commodities**: For commodities closely related to consumption, such as pigs and eggs, there are few opportunities. Crude - oil chemical products may continue to strengthen driven by rising crude - oil prices. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals are weak due to the digestion of interest - rate hike expectations, and high - priced varieties will face great callback pressure when the market enters recession trading [79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The macro - economy will consolidate its bottom, with exports supporting, investment stabilizing, consumption remaining weak, prices rising moderately, and global recession risks accumulating. Policy will remain positive, and the central bank may cut interest rates ahead of other central banks when the market turns to recession trading [79]. - **Asset Allocation**: In the short term, commodities > bonds > stocks; in the medium - to - long term, stocks > bonds > commodities. Do not have high expectations for consumption - related commodities, and pay attention to crude - oil chemical products and some under - performing varieties [79].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market fluctuations and the long-term upward trend of indices, advocating for a patient and strategic investment approach. Group 1: Market Behavior - Markets experience volatility even during bull markets, with historical examples from 2007 and 2015 showing multiple fluctuations and corrections [4] - Investors should be mentally prepared to face market volatility [5] - Long-term index growth is supported by company earnings and dividends, with the expectation that bear market bottoms will likely be higher than previous ones [6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Significant market gains often occur in brief periods, accounting for about 7% of total market movements, highlighting the need to be present during these moments [8] - The principle of buying undervalued assets and selling overvalued ones is central to value investing [9] - Long-term investment opportunities are abundant, with expectations of 5-6 cycles of bull and bear markets over the next 30 years [10] - Avoiding leverage and short selling is advised to prevent permanent losses [11][12] Group 3: Market Dynamics - A-shares often experience structural bull markets, with different leading sectors in each cycle, indicating that past strong performers may not lead in the next cycle [14] - Undervalued assets will eventually have their upward phases, allowing for profit regardless of market direction [15] - Short-term price movements are unpredictable, necessitating a balanced mindset [16] Group 4: Investor Virtues - Patience is highlighted as a key virtue for investors, with strategies to buy during downturns and sell during upswings [17]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the current market performance aligns with previous judgments, indicating a potential limit to average stock price declines, which should not exceed 19% as per the current regulatory team's bottom line [1] - It discusses the psychological aspects of market behavior, particularly the near-miss effect, and how it affects normal individuals in the stock market, suggesting that those who can break through their psychological barriers may have greater influence over market movements [2] - The article highlights the importance of identifying new leading stocks and main themes in the market following significant corrections, indicating a cyclical nature of market leadership [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to a combination of internal and external factors, leading to a sharp decline in major indices and raising concerns about the sustainability of the current bull market [2][3][4]. External Factors - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and geopolitical tensions have resulted in foreign capital outflows, putting pressure on growth stock valuations [3][4]. - The ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising inflation expectations are contributing to global market volatility, with potential implications for A-shares [3][4]. Internal Factors - The tightening liquidity at the end of the quarter has led to increased selling pressure from institutional investors, particularly in high-valuation technology growth sectors [4][5]. - The market's initial decline triggered stop-loss selling from quantitative funds, exacerbating the downward momentum and resulting in a significant drop in trading volumes [5]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently characterized by heightened fear, with a large number of stocks declining and a significant number hitting their daily limit down [2][3]. - The capital market's self-reinforcing mechanism is leading to a "panic selling" scenario, where investors who were previously bullish are now forced to reduce their positions due to short-term losses [5]. Diverging Opinions on Market Outlook - Some international investment banks, like Goldman Sachs, express caution, warning that the current asset pricing does not adequately account for the negative impact of high energy costs on global economic growth [6]. - Conversely, some market analysts believe the current downturn is merely a "pause" in a longer bull market, supported by strong underlying fundamentals such as policy support and capital inflows into undervalued Chinese assets [6][7]. Investment Strategies Post-Correction - After the adjustment, key investment directions are identified: resource stocks benefiting from geopolitical premiums, AI infrastructure driven by policy support, and renewable energy aligned with national energy transition goals [7].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing pressure from higher oil prices, increased interest rates, and a potential growth slowdown, yet declines have been gradual [1][2] - The current bull market still holds merit, with indicators suggesting a move towards oversold conditions, as evidenced by 52% of bears in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey [2][3] Performance Analysis - The S&P 500 has declined approximately 5% month-to-date and is down about 6% from all-time highs, which may not fully reflect the ongoing market conditions [3] - The median stock in the S&P 500 is 16% off its 52-week high, indicating a broader market pullback [4] Sector Insights - Small and mid-cap stocks have seen more significant declines, ranging from 7% to 9%, compared to larger caps [6] - Defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare have underperformed recently, with consumer staples down about 4%, raising questions about their pricing amid inflation concerns [6][7] Economic Outlook - Expectations for economic growth have diminished, with a forecast of two rate cuts by the end of the year, contingent on oil price stability [8][9] - The economy has shown resilience through various challenges, including COVID-19 and rapid rate hikes, suggesting that companies may still earn the benefit of the doubt [10] Market Stability - Stability in oil prices and interest rates is crucial for the market to regain its footing, as current conditions are creating uncertainty [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered the second phase of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3450 points and the Wind All A Index exceeding 5400 points, indicating a shift towards a profit-driven market phase [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market is expected to transition from a liquidity-driven phase, characterized by leading stocks, to a profit-driven phase where cyclical sectors will dominate [1] - The recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and expansion of total demand are key factors driving this transition [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities for the year will focus on two main themes: 1. Recovery of domestic demand and inflation chain, with attention on cyclical industries such as commodities and raw materials that benefit from fiscal stimulus, investment recovery, and rising PPI [1] 2. Long-term strategies and industry trends, continuing to focus on high-growth sectors representing new productive forces, including AI, robotics, new energy technologies, and commercial aerospace [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are the primary variable affecting market risk appetite, leading to a decline in global equity markets, a strengthening dollar, and a significant rise in oil prices. The trading logic is focused on defensive demand and rising energy prices, with a need to monitor the duration of oil supply constraints and their potential long-term impact on supply-demand dynamics [2][12][16]. - A combination of rising commodity prices and declining interest rates is seen as favorable for a bull market. Historically, instances of rising commodity prices coinciding with falling stock markets are rare, with only three occurrences since 1968. Overall, both US and A-shares benefit from rising commodity prices, unless inflation pressures lead to significant liquidity tightening [2][4][25]. - The report suggests that the current domestic deflationary pressures reduce concerns about negative inflation impacts, and interest rates are unlikely to rise significantly in the absence of further positive signals in the fundamentals. The combination of rising ROE and declining interest rates creates a conducive environment for the stock market [2][4][25]. Market Changes This Week - This week, major A-share indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.45%. The sectors leading the gains included oil and petrochemicals (+8.06%), while media (-6.97%) and non-ferrous metals (-5.47%) faced significant losses [32][33]. - Global stock markets also saw declines, with the S&P 500 down by 2.02%. In the commodity market, NYMEX crude oil surged by 36.18%, while LME copper fell by 3.61% [33][34]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the policy tone from the Two Sessions is generally stable, with limited expectations for unexpected easing policies in the short term. The economic growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5%, with other policy targets remaining consistent with 2025 [3][14]. - The report emphasizes that structural support policies aligned with long-term economic quality improvement and transformation are expected to be implemented effectively, particularly in sectors like services, AI commercialization, and new infrastructure [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics. The energy security narrative is likely to strengthen due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, creating opportunities in these sectors [28][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for structural support policies to continue benefiting sectors aligned with long-term economic development logic, such as technology and consumption [27][31].

Market Reactions to Middle East Conflicts - Historical conflicts in the Middle East have shown that they typically do not end bull markets in stocks, with past events often leading to market recoveries rather than downturns [1][2] - The outbreak of hostilities, such as those in 1990 and 2003, have historically marked the end of bear markets and the beginning of upturns [2] Oil Price Impact - Short-term market reactions to Middle East turmoil are largely influenced by oil prices, which have seen a modest global increase of 7% due to concerns over potential disruptions in petroleum transport [3][4] - Despite the rise in oil prices, it is not expected to derail the U.S. economy [4] Current Economic Signals - The market is currently facing conflicting cyclical signals, with initial excitement about economic growth this year starting to soften [5] - Treasury yields have decreased, raising uncertainty about consumer strength, while issues in credit markets suggest a later cycle environment impacting bank stocks [6] Technology Stocks and Global Equities - Attention is on whether major tech stocks, which are less affected by oil prices and global trade, can provide support for market indices [7] - Global equities have outperformed U.S. stocks for over a year, but there are indications that this trend may reverse following recent events in Iran [7]