四季度总体判断：指数将沿上升通道运行，波动中枢抬升，牛市持续时间 2–3 年。配置建议：科技主 线：逢回调布局人形机器人、算力芯片、半导体设备、工业软件、低空经济；均衡仓位：新能源（储 能、锂电、海风）、军工、医药生物、高股息央企；2025 年起逐步增配估值消化充分的消费、金融等 核心资产。能精选个股者，聚焦高景气赛道中业绩确定性强的行业龙头；不擅择时选股者，借道优质主 动权益基金或指数增强基金，降低波动，分享"慢牛"红利。总之，政策、估值、流动性、产业趋势四线 共振，A 股正处于盈利与估值双升阶段，建议保持定力，逢低布局，用时间换取空间，实现财富稳健增 长。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 10 月 A 股强势突破 4000 点，为 2014 年以来首次，标志性确认新一轮牛市趋势。4000 点附近多空分歧 加大，指数出现技术性回踩，但上行通道未遭破坏，回调被视为蓄势。 消息面上，中美经贸磋商取得实质性进展，两国元首在釜山 APEC 期间举行会晤，双边关系阶段性缓 和，全球风险偏好快速回升。稳增长政策密集落地：金融街论坛年会传递明确信号，央行行长潘功胜提 出"继续实施支持 ...

A股：牛市进入加速期，盘后又传来一则利好，大盘明天还能涨？ 可问题又来了——板块轮动，个股分化，有人抱着大票飘红，有人窝在3500点的冷板凳，心里不是滋味，明明都在一条船上，怎么有人吃海鲜，有人 啃馒头，这种情绪，连刘震云看了都得摇头：A股的公平，从来不是人人有份的蛋糕。 A股的戏，说到底，就是一场耐力赛，谁能熬到最后谁就是赢家，4000点只是新的起点，不过是换了条赛道，牛市进入加速期，行情也许不会一帆风 顺，但只要没有实锤的利空，市场就不会主动缴械。 这年头，利好利空都得用放大镜看，谁都不傻，谁都怕被割，但牛市里，最大的风险是下车太早，尤其是刚刚突破这种关口，历史上每次突破新高， 都是一波新的行情起点，主力不可能轻易放弃。 再看白酒，茅台三季报出来，增速不高，0.48%，但没掉队，市场心理预期差这点，已经算利好，白酒股盘中跳水又拉回，像极了话剧演员踩空台阶 又稳住身形，明天小幅反弹概率大，毕竟茅台没崩，没人敢率先砸场子。 有意思的是，散户情绪分化严重，有人满仓踏空，有人满仓踏实，网络上互呛声不绝，段子手又忙起来，"牛市你有名字，我有点票"，调侃归调侃， 焦虑也是真有，毕竟不是每个人都能买到领涨板块，A股的轮 ...

赵建系西京研究院院长 、中国首席经济学家论坛成员 赵建博士将根据最近一段时间对宏观形势和市场走势的思考，推出《现实十问》系列，回答投资者比较 关心的问题。 三、牛市还能持续多久？一句话：消化分歧，震荡蓄力，强者恒强。 四、房地产何时能见底？一句话：漫长的告别，僵而不死，向死而生。 五、物价何时才能回升？一句话：等待地产触底，或牛市持续慢牛。 六、储蓄新高，钱会去哪儿？一句话：结构分化，挤入强势资产。 七、人民币汇率是贬是升？一句话：升值压力相对较大，未来取决于中美央行。 八、债券行情终结了吗？一句话：弱势资产的弱势行情，形同鸡肋。 九、黄金还会继续大涨吗？一句话：趋势未改，定价"中国式布雷顿森林体系"。 十、"十五五"行情期待什么？一句话：十三五"互联网+"，十四五"大数据+"，十五五"人工智能+"。 问题三、本轮牛市还能持续多久 一句话回答：消化分歧，震荡蓄力，强者恒强。 在我一个月前写下现实十问之第三问，牛市还能持续多久的时候，A股还在3850点反复拉锯，又受到特 朗普关税战2.0的冲击，充满了不确定。当时我给出的答案是：消化分歧，震荡蓄力，强者恒强。仍然 延续牛市看法，而且是强者恒强的结构牛。今天，牛市 ...

野村证券最新报告给全球市场泼了盆冷水，美联储12月可能维持利率不变的概率正在上升。鲍威尔那句"远非如此"的表态，让利 率期货市场的降息押注概率直接从90%跌到了70%。这种政策预期的剧烈波动，恰恰揭示了金融市场最本质的特征：变化才是永 恒。 看着美联储最新的政策转向，我突然想起上周在陆家嘴咖啡厅遇到的老张。这位老股民盯着手机屏幕直叹气："指数都涨到4000 点了，我的账户怎么还在原地踏步？"这话让我心头一震——这不正是当下大多数散户的真实写照吗？ 但比起这些宏观大事，更让我揪心的是另一个数据：2025年这波牛市从四月启动至今，指数涨幅超过20%，可跑赢市场的个股不 到四成。换句话说，超过60%的投资者在这场盛宴中成了陪跑者。 表面看很美好——4000多家个股上涨，涨幅中位数16%，似乎人人都能分一杯羹。但老股民都懂这个残酷公式：牛市跑不赢指数 →震荡市必然亏损→本金缩水→彻底失去翻身机会。股市从来不缺机会，缺的是抓住机会的"子弹"。当你的账户在一次又一次 的"差一点"中被慢慢蚕食，最终只会沦为市场的养料。 上周五的非农数据公布前夜，我在复盘时发现个有趣现象：那些真正跑赢指数的个股，几乎都在启动前出现过明显的资 ...

get some insights on yesterday's Fed rate decision from Jeremy Seagull. He is chief economist at Wisdom Tree. He's also professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Bus business. And uh Jeremy, we were speaking earlier today with Roger Ferguson, the former vice chair at the Fed. His take was kind of interesting on this that first of all, he applauded that J. pal very firmly said that this is not a a glide path that the next rate cut may not be happening on this and he's a ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of non-debt private equity products in the A-share market, highlighting those that have achieved consecutive positive returns over the years, indicating the fund managers' ability to navigate market fluctuations [2][10]. Summary by Sections 2023 Performance - In 2023, among private equity companies managing over 500 million, there were 1,731 non-debt private equity products, with 1,026 (59.27%) achieving consecutive positive returns [2]. - The threshold for the top 20 products in cumulative returns for 2023 was set at ***% [2]. - The majority of the top 20 products (15) were subjective long strategies, with only one product from a billion-dollar private equity firm, Oriental Harbor [2]. Top Products in 2023 - The top five products based on returns were managed by: - Qian Jun from Chiying Private Equity - Zhou Yifeng from Beiheng Fund - Chen Yongbao from Ding Tai Si Fang (Shenzhen) - Wu Gengxin from Zhun Jin Investment - Shi Hao from Shanghai Ge Ru Private Equity [3]. 2021 Performance - For the period from 2021, there were 855 non-debt private equity products, with 184 (21.52%) achieving consecutive positive returns [10]. - The threshold for the top 20 products in cumulative returns for 2021 was also set at ***% [10]. - Half of the top 20 products were subjective long strategies, with a notable presence of quantitative long products [10]. Top Products in 2021 - The top five products were managed by: - He Wenling from Qianhai Guoen Capital - Liu Zhiyong from Caoben Investment - Li Ting from Gongqingcheng Guangju Xinghe Private Equity - Ma Changhai from Hengbang Zhaofeng - Li Jiabin from Qianhai Haifu Asset [11]. 2019 Performance - In 2019, there were 377 non-debt private equity products, with 54 (14.32%) achieving consecutive positive returns [15]. - The threshold for the top 20 products in cumulative returns for 2019 was set at ***% [15]. - The top 20 products included seven subjective long products, with a mix of quantitative long, macro strategies, and composite strategies [15]. Top Products in 2019 - The top five products were managed by: - Yang Zhongxian from Jilu Asset - Chen Yu from Shennong Investment - Yao Qicong from Jiukun Investment - Liang Wentao from Honghu Private Equity - Yu Zilong from Shanghai Yuanlai Private Equity [16][22].

截至2025年10月30日 09:48，中证A500指数下跌0.44%。成分股方面涨跌互现，鹏辉能源20cm涨停，欣旺达上涨11.22%，招商轮船10cm涨停；天孚通信领 跌，巨人网络、晶晨股份跟跌。A500ETF嘉实(159351)下修调整。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | -0.42% | 3.81% | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | -0.48% | 3.23% | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 1.22% | 2.12% | | 600036 | 招商银行 | 0.71% | 1.79% | | 201899 | 紫美矿业 | -0.16% | 1.73% | | 300502 | 新易盛 | -6.42% | 1.30% | | 300308 | 中际旭创 | 0.16% | 1.29% | | 000333 | 美的集团 | 2.02% | 1.28% | | 300059 | 东方财富 | -1.62% | 1.23% | | 600900 | 长江电力 | 0.42% | ...

截至2025年10月29日收盘，证券ETF(159841)上涨2.18%，换手7.12%，成交7.59亿元。跟踪指数成分股华安证券(600909)上涨8.16%，东北证券(000686)上涨 6.86%，东兴证券(601198)上涨4.53%，长江证券(000783)，广发证券(000776)等个股跟涨。 截至10月29日，证券ETF(159841)近3月规模增长45.91亿元，实现显著增长。资金流入方面，证券ETF(159841)近10个交易日合计"吸金"7769.03万元。 【产品亮点】 证券板块具备较强β属性，主营业务表现与资本市场表现息息相关，因此被喻为"牛市旗手"。历史市场牛市上涨行情期间，证券板块显著跑赢大盘，深市规 模流动性同类持续领先的证券ETF(159841)助力投资者把握机遇。 10月28日，东北证券披露2025年第三季度报告。根据公告，2025年前三季度，东北证券实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润10.67亿元，同比增长125.21%，核 心驱动为证券自营业务与财富管理收入显著提升。 2、财通证券：第三季度单季营收同比增长48.58%，归母净利润大增75.10% 10月29日，财通证券公告， ...

Group 1 - The current market situation shows a trading volume of nearly 2.3 trillion, with the index reaching 4000 points, yet most investors are not making profits, as over 2000 stocks are declining [1] - The recent market rally is primarily driven by large-cap stocks, particularly in the technology sector, leading to a lack of participation from the majority of investors [1] - There is speculation about the potential positive impact of the Asia-Pacific conference, raising questions about whether the 4000-point mark is just the beginning of a larger upward trend [1] Group 2 - The market is anticipating a significant positive development with a high probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which could further solidify the 4000-point level [2] - A shift in market sentiment is expected once the large-cap stocks' collective investment style changes, potentially leading to widespread profitability for investors [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a patient approach, emphasizing the importance of waiting for the right opportunities rather than rushing into trades, especially during challenging market conditions [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant increase in ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) investments amid a bullish market sentiment, highlighting the dual-sided betting by investors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - There has been a notable surge in ETF inflows, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - Investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios by betting on both long and short positions within ETFs [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation in ETFs to capitalize on market volatility [1] - It mentions that investors are utilizing ETFs as a tool for hedging against potential market downturns while still participating in upward trends [1]