关于市场恢复的速度，目前机构投资者的预期普遍偏向审慎乐观。NCE 平台表示，尽管现货 ETF 的流 入情况有所改善，但在经历大幅回撤后，市场情绪的修复通常需要三到六个月的"冷静期"。V 型反转的 概率在当前环境下较低，更多的将是基于宽幅区间的结构性整理。这种行情虽然缺乏爆发力，但对于长 期投资者而言，却是降低持仓成本、进行战略性配置的良机。 综上所述，数字资产市场正处于从"寒冬"向"早春"过渡的阵痛期。投资者应保持耐心，密切关注 ETF 的流入规模以及全球宏观政策对风险资产定价的影响。随着抛售压力的逐步出清，市场的重心将缓慢上 移。在 2026 年余下的时间里，这种横盘整理将持续修复投资者的信心，直至新的利好催化剂出现。 NCE 平台建议，在震荡市中应重点关注 60000 美元关口的支撑力度，这是判断长期牛市趋势是否完好 的重要参考。 技术指标层面也释放出了明显的见底信号。NCE 平台认为，比特币的历史周线 RSI（相对强弱指数） 已进入极度超卖区域，这通常预示着激进的卖压正处于消退边缘。虽然市场仍可能反复测试 62000 美元 至 65000 美元的支撑区间，但只要全球宏观经济环境不发生系统性崩溃，这种震荡 ...

券商拉盘指数走强！盘面暗藏背离，老股民直呼心慌 炒股的人都懂，A股最让人琢磨不透的，不是单边下跌，而是看似上涨却处处透着诡异的盘面。2026年2月25日，A股三大指数集体收涨，券商板块突然盘中 拉升，不少声音开始喊"牛市要加速"。 可越是这种热闹场面，经验丰富的老股民反而越坐不住，盯着盘面频频摇头，心里满是不安。 指数在涨、个股普涨，本该开心的行情，却因为量能结构、资金动向的微妙变化，让整个市场多了一层谨慎。到底是行情启动的前兆，还是需要警惕的虚 火？ 一、官方数据实锤：指数全线收红，券商板块异动拉升 2026年2月25日A股核心行情数据，全部来自官方行情平台，真实可查。截至收盘，上证指数报4147.23点，上涨0.72%；深证成指报14475.87点，上涨 1.29%；创业板指报3354.82点，上涨1.41%，三大指数同步飘红，盘面呈现普涨格局。两市合计成交额2.46万亿元，较前一交易日放量2605亿元，市场交投 保持活跃。 板块层面，券商成为关键异动力量，中证证券公司指数收盘上涨0.58%，盘中最高冲高至1.46%，多只券商股出现直线脉冲拉升，充当指数维稳的核心角 色。周期、半导体等板块同步走强，超39 ...

2月25日，现货金银价格上涨。截至发稿，现货黄金涨近1%，报5181.17美元/盎司；现货白银站上88美元/盎司，日内涨1.32%。 在国内金饰方面，2月25日，周生生足金饰品报1564元/克，较2月24日的1570元/克降6元。 近日，市场传出周大福春节后将对黄金产品调价的消息，此次调价或于3月中旬正式启动，目前部分门店已收到相关通知， 涨价重点集中在一口价产品 上，预计涨幅或为15%—30%，但具体调价细节及执行时间仍以到店价格标签调整为准。2月24日，北京京西大悦城周大福门店销售人员确认了涨价的消 息，该销售人员表示： "涨价时间在3月10日左右。一条克重在29.88克的五帝钱金手链涨价前53800元，即将涨价到71800元，目前是一货难求。"据此计 算，该条手链涨幅超33%，涨价后克均价已超2400元。 在消息面上， 2月24日，上海黄金交易所发布关于调整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知。 | 今开 | 5192.77 | | 最高 | 5276.34 | | | 成交量 3002.08万手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1 - The article outlines seven major events expected to occur by 2026, including significant interest rate cuts in the US and China, the explosive growth of AI applications, and increased geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The AI revolution is in its early stages, with large-scale deployment of GPUs and computing centers leading to a significant drop in costs, resulting in the commercialization of super applications by 2026 [3][5] - The article emphasizes that AI is not just a trend but a transformative force, likening its impact to a tsunami rather than a mere windfall, marking the beginning of a fourth technological revolution [3][5] Group 2 - The upcoming bull market is driven by three strong forces: continuous monetary easing, a new wave of technological revolution, and ample liquidity, characterized as a confidence bull market [5][6] - The capital market is tasked with three historical missions: developing new productive forces, aiding in major power technological competition, and repairing household balance sheets [5] - The article encourages a long-term perspective, focusing on essential trends and making decisive actions rather than relying solely on hard work [7]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ◆◆◆ urn(( 银行螺丝钉 #螺丝钉小知识 分散投资，为什么能提升持仓 体验? 很多投资者都是从投资指数基金开始自己的投资之路的。 但是怎样投资指数基金，才能获得好收益？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数基金的投资技巧。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数基金 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 有时投资了低估品种,运气较好的话, 下一年就会上涨，迎来高估。 比如2024年9月份买入科技、科创、创 业板相关品种,到2025年三季度,这类 品种已有部分进入高估区间。 本轮牛市中,也有部分品种涨幅不多, 比如消费板块。 这是因为本轮牛市的行情，主要由资金 流动性驱动，而非基本面驱动。而2021 年消费板块的大幅上涨，是源于当时消 费板块具备强劲的基本面支撑。 风险提示 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎 。 基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

2024年"924"行情以来，A股市场经历了波澜壮阔的一年半。转眼间，我们已站在2026年的起点。随着上证指数创下近十年新高，市场在欢呼声中也开始出 现分歧：这轮牛市还能涨多久？是"烟花"将尽，还是"慢牛"刚启？ 作为自媒体创作者，我结合近期方正证券、国泰海通、高盛、中信建投等机构的官方核心观点，为你抽丝剥茧，聊聊我对这轮牛市终局的深度思考。 3. 科技的突破：重塑估值体系的引擎如果说资金是血液，那么科技就是心脏。2025年DeepSeek、机器人、集成电路等新技术的出现，打开了市场对未来增 长的预期空间 2026年初的A股，已经不是那个在绝望中重生的少年，而是一位步入壮年的奔跑者。 方正证券在2026年初的研报中明确指出，A股已经进入牛市第三年 这意味着什么？意味着 "闭眼买入都能涨"的阶段可能已经过去。2026年的市场，大概率不会再是单纯的普涨，而是对节奏把握和结构选择的巨大考验。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕将这轮牛市定义为 "转型牛" 。他认为，这轮行情的典型特征是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉映。虽然市场在2025年经 历了大幅波动，但这头"牛"远未结束，2026年甚至有望挑战十年前的高位 要判断牛 ...

重要的不是你对市场的判断是否正确，而是你在判断正确的时候赚了多少钱，在判断错误的 时候又赔了多少钱。——乔治·索罗斯 不少股民都想要一朝发迹，一旦抓住一只股票，就想靠它一本万利，缺乏最基本的耐心和判断力。如果 这一只股票获了利，就像赌徒一样不断"下注"。把一切资金、希望，以及身家性命都押在一个宝上，直 至输得倾家荡产。 不要把股市当赌场，更不要幻想在股市里一夜暴富。股市是很多人工作的地方，是谋生的手段，想要在 股市中获得长久稳定的利益，唯一可以依靠的只有技术。股市虽然千变万化，但也并非完全无规律可 循，这与赌场里的碰运气不同。见好不收，依靠纯粹由心理支持的价格飞涨的牛市虽说可以持续一段时 间，但最终会一泻千里。而这种鲁莽的空中楼阁的缔造者也很少能幸免于难。 如果你炒股超过了三年时间，但还是亏损的，那么大概率是这6点基础逻辑没有搞清楚！我是坚持做波 段进出、严格执行仓位管理的职业散户，炒股17个年头了，从30万入市到现在以此为生，给大家做个分 享，认真看完，能让你少走5年弯路！ 心得一：不买处于下降通道中的股票。1、猜测下降通道股票的底部是危险的，因为其可能根本没有 底；2、存在的就是合理的，下跌的股票一定有下 ...

楼市这几年走得磕磕绊绊，尤其是二三四线城市，房价从2021年起就一路往下溜。国家统计局数据摆在 那儿，2025年全年，一线城市二手房平均跌了7.6%，二线城市6.2%，三线6.1%。到2026年1月，环比降 幅是收窄了点，但同比还是在扩大，二线新房环比降0.3%，三线0.4%。三四线城市更惨。 普通老百姓攒半辈子买的房，就这么眼睁睁看着市值缩水，出租回报也低得可怜，每月几千块勉强够还 贷。这时候股市那边热火朝天，上证指数2025年涨了18.41%，站上4000点关口，创业板更猛，49.57% 的涨幅领跑全球主要指数。 楼市虽凉但底子还在，卖了等于自断后路 房价跌归跌，总归有企稳那天。2026年2月数据出来，一二三线环比降幅整体收窄，二线二手房降 0.5%，三线0.6%，比前几个月好转了点。张波这种业内人士分析，上半年政策方向没变，还是稳房 价、促成交为主。 2021年7月调控收紧后，二三四线二手房成交量腰斩，挂牌价月月调低，但跌到这份儿上，库存压力大 归大，政策也在托底。像扬州、湛江这种地方，1月二手房价环比还小涨了。要是急吼吼卖房，赶上 2026年局部反弹，那亏的可不止点纸面数字。普通家庭的房，多是刚需或改 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A long - term bull market started in early 2024, and the current market is in the main rising wave [5]. - The driving forces of this bull market include macro - economic policy support, an increase in corporate profit growth, the re - allocation of household savings to the stock market, the return of global capital, the inflow of long - term funds, and the further advancement of market value management reform [5]. - From the perspective of valuation, the bull market has three stages: confidence restoration, the main rising wave, and the crazy bull market. Currently, it is in the main rising wave [5]. - The stock market has multiple positive effects such as promoting economic transformation, stimulating economic growth, improving the corporate financing environment, alleviating debt pressure, and enhancing international competitiveness [82]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Why the Current Bull Market Started in Early 2024 - In February 2024, the market completed the bear - to - bull conversion, which is also the case for other indexes [7]. 3.2 Driving Forces of the Bull Market 3.2.1 Macroeconomic Policy and Cyclical Recovery Expectations - The macro - economy is under pressure and requires loose support policies. However, there are positive signals due to industrial chain advantages and key technological breakthroughs [9]. - Fixed - asset investment growth has continued to decline, and the decline accelerated in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, turning negative for the whole year. Manufacturing growth is only slight [10][12]. - The growth of total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed down, and consumer confidence remains low. This is due to weakened income and income expectations, high household leverage, and the need for preventive savings [14][17]. - Inflation is persistently weak. The consumption structure shows a pattern of "strong at both ends and weak in the middle". For PPI, the downward pressure on production material prices is more obvious [19][24]. - Manufacturing PMI has been weak, with环比 data lower than seasonal levels, rising ex - factory prices, a decline in raw material inventory possibly due to active de - stocking, rising raw material purchase prices, and weak new and on - hand orders [25][29]. - Fiscal policy is loose. The government has room to increase leverage, and the average maturity of local government bonds has been lengthening [30][32]. - The money market is loose. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low, and there is still room for further decline in interest rates. The adjustment of treasury bond futures indicates a change in market expectations [34][36]. - The Fed's interest rate cuts provide room and necessity for domestic interest rate cuts. The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. Domestic commercial banks have lowered deposit rates, and the real domestic interest rate is high [37][39]. - Exports show strong resilience, but exports to the US have declined significantly. China's share of global exports remains stable, and new "new three items" are emerging as new drivers of foreign trade [40][45]. - In the chip industry, the effect of import substitution is emerging, and the export growth rate is much higher than the import growth rate. A complete domestic chip industry chain is rising [49]. - The production, sales, and exports of automobiles are expected to reach new highs this year, and the export volume has exceeded the sum of Germany and Japan [50][53]. - The increase in excavator production and sales is mainly due to the low - base effect and still has a large gap compared with the peak [58]. - The real estate market is in the bottom - building process, with a decline in housing prices. The real estate market will have a lower correlation with the macro - economy in the future, and there is a possibility of a retaliatory rise in housing prices [60]. 3.2.2 Increase in Corporate Profit Growth - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size has rebounded. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total profits turned positive. The profit of listed companies in the A - share market has also returned to growth, and the scope of profit improvement is gradually expanding [62]. 3.2.3 Re - allocation of Household Savings to the Stock Market - Household deposits are likely to continue to rise, and the ratio of the total stock market value to household deposits is still low, indicating great potential for households to allocate more assets to the stock market [64]. 3.2.4 Return of Global Capital - Global investors plan to increase their investment in China - focused hedge funds in 2026. The net proportion of investors planning to increase investment has reached 14%, higher than the 9% in 2025. At the same time, investors' interest in the North American market has declined significantly [65]. - The US dollar has entered a downward trend, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus, which may be due to the inflow of overseas hot money. When the settlement and sales of foreign exchange turn into a surplus, the overall trend of the A - share market is usually strong [67][71]. 3.2.5 Inflow of Long - term Funds - A series of policies have been introduced to encourage long - term funds to enter the market. In 2025, the scale of long - term capital entering the market increased significantly, and the investor structure was continuously optimized [75][76]. 3.2.6 Further Advancement of Market Value Management Reform - National - level and state - owned enterprise - specific policies have been introduced to promote market value management. The policy goals include increasing the total market value, repurchase amount, and cash dividend ratio, and improving the equity incentive coverage rate [77][78]. 3.3 Index Valuation - The valuations of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes are not high, while the valuations of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are at high levels. This is mainly because the macro - economy is still in the bottom - building process, and the low - interest - rate environment is more favorable to technology stocks [104]. - From a technical perspective, the index has emerged from a large bottom shock and is currently in the main rising wave. If the index continues to rise without an improvement in performance, it may trigger a deep correction. This bull market may experience three stages: confidence improvement and valuation increase, performance improvement, and a crazy bull market driven by retail investors [104]. 3.4 Seasonal Patterns of the A - share Market - The A - share market has seasonal patterns such as "poor in May, dismal in June, and a rebound in July". At the end of the year or the beginning of the next year, the style may shift. After the style shift, the market may continue to rise around the Spring Festival. In the late stage of the medium - term bull market, investors can switch from CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures to SSE 50 and CSI 300 index futures. After the medium - term market adjustment ends, they can first go long on CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures [105].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that in a bear market, trading often leads to losses, while in a bull market, there is a risk of missing out on gains [1] - The current financial environment shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 113.5 billion yuan through reverse repos [3] - The interbank funding rates have decreased, with DR001 at approximately 1.26% and DR007 at around 1.43% [3] Group 2 - The stock market is showing weak performance, with financial data for January meeting expectations and interest rates fluctuating [5] - Recent developments in the US stock market have caused a decline, with AI advancements previously seen as beneficial now leading to caution among investors [6] - The bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield initially opening lower at 1.7675% before rising to around 1.78% [5][8]