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亚太视角看中国|韩国之鉴:如何走出债务危机?
野村东方国际证券· 2025-03-28 10:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that South Korea's experience shows that there are multiple paths to recovery from balance sheet recessions, not just the "Japanization" route [2] - South Korea's aggressive capital investment strategy during the 1997 financial crisis led to near bankruptcy for both enterprises and households, but the country managed to achieve around 4% real GDP growth over the next 20 years [2] - The article summarizes five key lessons from South Korea's development experience, highlighting that decisive debt reduction and stimulating corporate capital investment are effective ways to address balance sheet recessions [2][4] Group 2 - The need for foreign policy to prioritize exports is emphasized, suggesting that maximizing commercial value may require a diplomatic focus on economic development and export-oriented strategies [3] - The heavy capital investment model must be paired with effective export value-added upgrades, as South Korea's post-crisis growth was driven by capital investment and improvements in total factor productivity [4] - The article notes that while the global trade environment has shifted, East Asian economies can still maintain competitive advantages in overseas markets by aligning trade and growth-oriented foreign policies [5] Group 3 - It is crucial to balance profit margins and total factor productivity under a development-first strategy, as sustainable growth may depend more on maintaining productivity rather than merely accumulating resources and capital [6] - The article suggests that in a multipolar environment, balancing scale and profitability may be a more suitable strategy for China's development, as solely pursuing scale can lead to low returns on investment and sustainability issues [6]