点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 猜想一：量的增长，对应"十五五"规划时期，经济增速目标维持在4.5%-5%区间，兼顾远景目标与潜在增 长水平。 核心观点： "十五五"时期是我国乘势而上迈向基本实现社会主义现代化的关键五年，规划将致力于实现质的提升与量 的增长协同并进，其最终目标则锚定于人的全面发展与全体人民共同富裕。我们理解，"十五五"规划将围 绕三大核心主线展开：科技引领、内需提振与安全发展；而稳定经济增速、提升全要素生产率、加速人工 智能应用落地、稳定制造业占比、更多资源"投资于人"则是重要政策抓手。 五年规划对中国经济发挥着重要的引领性作用 十四个五年规划，服务于不同时期的发展诉求。从"一五"到"五五"，奠定工业化基础；自"六五"至"十二 五"，着重解 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that a unified national market is essential for China's modernization, helping to unlock the "scale but not economy" issues within the domestic economic cycle and enhancing international competitiveness through local market effects [1][2] - The concept of transaction costs is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the unified market, as it highlights the administrative divisions caused by local protectionism and the natural segmentation due to transportation costs [3][4] - The transition from a planned economy to a market economy has shifted local government roles, leading to increased transaction costs in upstream factor markets, necessitating a focus on reducing these costs in the construction of a unified market [6][7] Group 2 - Historical context shows that local protectionism has historically raised transaction costs, with various government policies attempting to mitigate market segmentation, but with limited success [7][8] - The relationship between market segmentation and economic growth follows an inverted U-shape, indicating that as the economy matures, the importance of domestic markets increases, necessitating the optimization of factor allocation [8][9] - The role of entrepreneurs is emphasized as they drive the efficient use of resources, and a unified market system can help reduce institutional transaction costs, fostering innovation and economic growth [10][11] Group 3 - Future reforms should focus on establishing unified foundational institutional rules to lower transaction costs, particularly in factor markets, while adjusting the relationship between central and local governments [11][12] - Market-oriented reforms are needed to standardize policies across regions, particularly in land and labor markets, to prevent local governments from offering excessive incentives that distort competition [12][13] - Enhancing transparency and fairness in the execution of foundational rules is essential, including the establishment of mechanisms for information sharing and feedback between regulatory bodies and market participants [12][13]

1 ）外部形势判断： "十五五"时期相较于以往的五年规划期， 最突出的特征就是外部环境的不确定性。 2 ）经济增速要求： 大国战略竞争的核心是综合实力的较量 ，必须着力提升自身经济实力、科技实力和综 合国力，才能赢得战略主动。在这样的背景下， 要把经济较快增长放在更为重要的位置，设定明确的经济 增长目标， 以此引导市场、增强信心，也为高质量发展创造条件。 3 ）安全 ： 统筹发展与安全，加强粮食、能源、金融等领域风险防控；修改国家安全法。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，主要关注"十五五"规划相关的新信号。 9 月 12 日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会办公厅关于"十 五五"规划纲要编制工作若干重要问题专题调研工作情况的报告（以下简称调研报告），要点如下： 4 ）科技与产业 ： 科技创新和产业创新是发展新质生产力、实现高质量发展的战略基点，也是有效应对国 际竞争新形势和美西方国家围堵打压的根本途径……我国未来发展的潜在增长率取决于全要素生产率的提 升…… 建议"十五五"规划中构建全要素生产率 ...

Core Insights - The transformation towards digital intelligence in the real estate industry is deemed essential for survival and improvement, moving from traditional construction to a new paradigm of "space operation + data empowerment" [1][3] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The real estate sector is undergoing a significant shift from an incremental to a stock-based era, driven by digital transformation [2] - From 2000 to 2010, new housing construction reached 115% of the initial stock, doubling growth; from 2010 to 2020, it achieved 80% growth on an already expanded stock; projections for 2020 to 2030 indicate new construction will decline to around 40% [2] - The focus of the industry is shifting from large-scale new construction to stock operation and quality enhancement, with future growth rates stabilizing at 20% to 25% [2] Group 2: Key Elements of Change - In the incremental era, core elements were land and capital; in the stock era, data and operational capability become central [3] - The redefinition of real estate to include data alongside physical rights and location is expected to fundamentally alter the industry's value recognition system [3] Group 3: Digital Transformation in Practice - The past two years have seen rapid digital transformation in the real estate sector, driven by the need to improve space, energy, organizational, and service efficiencies [3] - Companies like Longfor Group have reported significant efficiency improvements, with project design times reduced by 64% to 72% due to digitalization [3] - Over half of the companies have initiated digital transformation, anticipating disruptive impacts within five years, although challenges such as assessing economic benefits and data quality persist [3][4] Group 4: Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to maintain their core business while enhancing productivity through digital means, focusing on information, digitalization, and intelligent applications [4][5] - Exploring related or innovative business areas, including horizontal expansion and strategic emerging industries, is recommended to create comprehensive service solutions [5]

民生加银基金周帅： 运用量化工具 打造专精特新投资利器 ◎记者 陈玥 过去两年，当"专精特新"成为市场一大热门主题的同时，如何从一个边界并不清晰的概念中挖掘超额收 益，对基金经理的投资能力提出了考验。经过一系列整合和摸索，周帅打造出了一套"攻略"。 "当前沪深两市的国家级'专精特新企业'数量超1000家，大部分企业市值在100亿元以下；在板块分布 上，近80%企业属于创业板、科创板等科技成长板块；行业主题上分布在新一代信息技术、高端装备制 造、新材料、节能环保、生物产业、新能源等战略性新兴行业。企业数量多、行业主题跨度大、市值相 对较小，较为适合我们通过量化的方式去挖掘主题内的阿尔法收益。在投资策略上，我们将量化策略与 基本面研究相结合，去发掘市场中的投资机会。"周帅说。 周帅表示，通过对专精特新企业风格特征的分析，表明其具备较为清晰的小盘、成长、科技主题特征， 因此从这两个方向去寻找超额收益，最终搭建了小盘价值、科技成长优选两套子策略。 对于科技成长优选策略，周帅表示，主要从行业逻辑出发选择科技成长板块长期选股效果更佳的基本面 因子，同时纳入高频量价及机器学习类因子，单独搭建科技成长板块选股策略。小盘价值策 ...

在美联储重启降息的背景下，美元指数进一步走弱，这给了人民币在内的非美货币带来较强的 被动升值动能。9月17日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.10关口，最高升至7.0995，为去年11月以 来首次。 近日，美联储正式官宣降息，虽然幅度只有25个基点，但市场普遍预计这只是此轮降息周期的 开始。在美联储降息消息公布后，美元指数迅速下探至今年1月以来最低点96.2199，创下自 2022年2月初以来的新低。 国际资本流动是汇率决定的关键因素之一，随着美联储降息路径的推进， 美元走弱已是大概 率事件。 图：图虫 出于对美联储议息会议决议公告惯例的预测，就在降息靴子落地前的一个交易日，离岸人民币 兑美元盘中升破7.10关口，这是自去年11月以来的首次。与此同时，在岸人民币收盘价亦同样 创下自去年同期以来新高。 在持续收窄的中美利差面前，人民币走强几乎没有悬念。但是，单凭中美利差，显然还不足以 解释当前日益逼近7.0整数大关的人民币汇率走势。 毕竟一国经济的基本面才是决定本国汇率根本。面对全球经济增速萎靡的颓势，中国超大市场 规模的优势正在成为全球稀缺资源，中国经济走势在横向国际比较中的优势日渐凸显。尤其是 西方国家深陷治理赤字 ...

记者 王珍 全国统一大市场建设迎来重要进展。9月11日，国务院关于全国部分地区要素市场化配置综合改革试点 实施方案的批复显示，自即日起2年内，在北京城市副中心、江苏苏南重点城市、浙江杭甬温等10个地 区开展要素市场化配置综合改革试点。 改革开放以来，我国绝大部分商品和服务都已实现了市场定价、自由流动，但要素市场体系建设相对滞 后，发育还不充分，不利于发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用。本次试点的要素涵盖范围广，不仅涉 及土地、劳动力、资本等传统要素，还包括数据、算力、空域、频谱轨道等新型要素。 中央党校（国家行政学院）国际战略研究院原副院长周天勇对智通财经表示，打好要素市场化改革这场 战役，将为中国未来发展带来良好前景。 搭平台方面，重点是推动各地区、各领域技术交易服务平台的互联互通。魏巍表示，工信部正在加快建 设国家一体化技术交易服务平台，加强部门间的数据共享，与各地已有的技术交易平台载体一起，打造 规则统一、资源整合、要素协同、开放合作的"一站式"服务平台网络。 优生态方面，重点是促进资源要素协同，形成共建共享生态。大力发展科技服务业，培育壮大科技服务 机构，加强技术经理人队伍建设，支撑服务供需精准匹配，提 ...

Core Insights - The global central bank reserve landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 in terms of reserve composition, marking a milestone for gold as a reserve asset [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 7.402 million ounces (approximately 2302.28 tons) by the end of August, with a reserve value increase of $9.858 billion to $253.843 billion, representing a historical high of 7.64% of total foreign reserves [1][2] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2019, with 43% planning to add to their gold holdings despite rising gold prices [2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Central Bank Gold Purchases - The deepening cracks in the U.S.-centric international monetary system, highlighted by the freezing of Russian reserve assets, have prompted central banks to accelerate gold accumulation as a direct response [3] - The high level of U.S. government debt, projected to reach 124.3% of GDP by the end of 2024, undermines the credibility of the dollar, leading other countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold as a safer, inflation-resistant alternative [3] - The restructuring of the global order and increased political risks have led central banks, especially in emerging markets, to prefer gold over dollar assets to hedge against potential structural risks in the dollar system [4] Group 2: Changes in Central Bank Reserve Strategies - A structural shift in central bank gold reserve strategies is evident, with 59% of central banks opting to store gold domestically, an increase of 18 percentage points from 2024 [4] - 73% of central banks anticipate a decline in the share of dollar reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that breaking down barriers to factor mobility will significantly enhance total factor productivity, providing long-term support for potential growth [1] - The pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation is seen as a crucial step towards improving factor allocation efficiency and stimulating innovation [2][3] - The reform aims to deepen the coupling of industrial chains, innovation chains, and capital chains, promoting the evolution of the industrial system towards high-end and intelligent development [1][4] Group 2 - The State Council's meeting highlighted the need to stimulate technological innovation, promote efficient allocation of land factors, and enhance the service capacity of capital factors to the real economy [2] - The pilot areas will be selected based on both "maturity" and "urgency," focusing on regions with high marketization and strong industrial clusters, as well as areas with weak market foundations but significant reform potential [3] - The implementation plan for the pilot program is expected to accelerate its launch by the second half of 2025, aligning with the goal of achieving significant results by that time [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the pilot program for the market-oriented allocation of factors, which is seen as a significant step in reforming the economic system and enhancing efficiency in resource allocation [1][2] - The pilot program aims to stimulate innovation, improve the efficient allocation of land, and facilitate the rational flow of human resources, while also focusing on the development of a data factor market and enhancing capital's service capabilities for the real economy [2][3] - The pilot will not be limited to single-factor breakthroughs but will promote a coordinated approach across multiple factors, indicating a shift towards systemic and comprehensive reform [2][3] Group 2 - The pilot program will be implemented in regions that balance "maturity" and "urgency," including areas with high marketization and strong industrial clusters, as well as regions with weaker market foundations but significant reform needs [3] - Preliminary results from existing explorations indicate progress in market-oriented factor allocation, such as the Shenzhen Data Exchange's achievements in data trading and the initiation of a unified electricity market in the southern region [4] - The implementation plan for the pilot is expected to accelerate by the second half of 2025, aligning with the goal of achieving significant results by that time, which is crucial for supporting long-term growth and enhancing the financing accessibility for SMEs and manufacturing [4]