2025-12-22 ⚫ 综述 上周市场整体呈现先跌后涨的震荡走势，绝大多数指数周度 收跌，其中科创 50 指数领跌，周度跌幅达 2.99%。板块方面，商 贸零售和非银金融等行业板块表现突出，周度涨幅分别为 6.65% 和 2.89%；电子和电力设备等板块走势偏弱，周度跌幅分别约为 3.28%和 3.12%。上周市场焦点集中于各国央行的政策表态。日本 央行如期加息 25 个基点，但由于市场对日本财政状况的担忧持 续，日元走弱的趋势仍未扭转。美国方面，通胀数据超预期降温， 同时非农就业数据保持韧性，有助于稳定市场对美股的预期。地 缘局势上，俄乌冲突进展支撑欧元保持相对强势。总体来看，市 场对美联储降息的预期与日本央行的加息举措共同作用下，美元 指数小幅走强。人民币汇率整体表现偏强，叠加市场对于国内的 政策预期，预计短期国内市场或延续震荡偏强格局，继续关注美 元流动性变化以及国内的政策信号。 ⚫ 期权市场 上周期权市场中，各品种金融期权隐波（IV）以下降为主仍保 持年内较低水平。其中创业板指 ETF 期权隐波降幅最深，达 8.20%。 当前科创 50 期权（IV=23%）和创业板指期权（IV=23%）隐波已回 落 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the domestic stock market declined slightly, and the continuous upward trend weakened. Multiple factors, including profit - taking pressure, trade negotiation uncertainties, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision, led to the market's pullback. However, the overall decline was limited. In the long run, the current valuation of broad - based indices is still low, economic stimulus policies are taking effect, the Fed's interest - rate cut is approaching, and the RMB exchange rate remains strong, so the internal and external environment continues to improve [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The domestic stock market declined slightly last week, with major broad - based indices falling by about - 1%. Multiple factors, such as profit - taking pressure after the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3600 points, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision, caused the market to pull back. But there are also positive factors, like the possible extension of the trade truce and the increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September. The market sentiment remains relatively optimistic, and a cautiously optimistic view is maintained [1] Options Market - Since the overall market decline was small, the implied volatility (IV) of financial options changed little and is currently at a relatively moderate level. The IV of 50 and 300 options is around 14%, while that of CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index options is between 17% - 23%. The options position PCR is at a moderately high level [2] Strategy Outlook - The index has briefly pulled back, and the options IV is relatively moderate. It is advisable to continue holding indices with relatively low valuations, such as the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index. Given the uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, if the stock position is large or some call options are already held, consider buying near - month out - of - the - money put options for hedging. A long - term optimistic view is maintained, so continue to hold far - month CSI 300 or ChiNext Index call options. Although the far - month futures discount of CSI 1000 has narrowed to some extent, the absolute value is still large, so the covered call strategy of going long on highly discounted futures and selling at - the - money or out - of - the - money call options still has some room [3] Market Overview - From July 18 - 25, 2025, various indices and ETFs showed different degrees of decline. For example, the Shanghai 50ETF closed at 2.88, down 1.37%, with an IV of 13.55%; the Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2754.13, down 1.48%, with an IV of 13.32%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4054.93, down 1.75%, with an IV of 13.27%, etc. The trading volume and position PCR of each option also varied [4]