铁合金期货行情分析

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铁合金期货周报:南非消息扰动,锰硅“一日游”-20250526
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 09:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe)**: The supply - demand contradiction of SiFe has been significantly alleviated, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. In the short term, the demand side lacks support, but there is a need to be vigilant against supply - demand mismatch situations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5800, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5900 [4][8]. - **Silicon Manganese (SiMn)**: Affected by the news, the volatility of SiMn increased significantly in the last two trading days of this week. In the short term, there is still supply pressure, but there are more news disturbances. With the expectation that future hot metal production will remain at a high level, SiMn will generally maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, lacking the logical support for a trending upward movement. It is recommended to try short - selling at high levels, with the bottom support temporarily at around 5400. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 5700 - 6000 [5][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe) Valuation - The main SiFe contract decreased by 3.37% this week, closing at 5512 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and among manufacturers and trading locations [8]. Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent SiFe enterprises was 30.42%, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous period. The daily output was 12,700 tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 88,900 tons [8][30]. Cost and Profit - The immediate production costs in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia were 5518 yuan/ton, 5708 yuan/ton, and 5469 yuan/ton respectively. The immediate profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were - 118 yuan/ton and - 119 yuan/ton respectively [8]. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable overall. The operating rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 41.51%, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output was 155,300 tons, a 62,000 - ton increase from the previous period. The lanthanum coke inventory was 412,700 tons, a 98,000 - ton increase from the previous period, and the raw coal inventory was 1,220,500 tons, a 375,000 - ton increase from the previous period [8][51]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiFe in five major steel types was 20,700 tons, a 1.66% increase from the previous week. The non - steel demand, such as for magnesium metal, was stable, but the downstream demand was limited [8]. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of 60 independent SiFe enterprises was 75,100 tons, a 1.90% increase from the previous period [8]. Silicon Manganese (SiMn) Futures and Spot - The main SiMn contract decreased by 2.39% this week, closing at 5718 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading locations [113]. Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent SiMn enterprises was 34.18%, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The daily output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons, and the weekly output was 165,200 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [113][225]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5768 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi it was 6309 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 188 yuan/ton [113]. Manganese Ore Supply - The global manganese ore shipments recovered this week. The future arrivals of manganese ore will remain at a high level. The supply recovery of South32's Australian mine will further increase the global manganese ore supply, and the manganese ore price will still face pressure [5][113]. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of May 16, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.18 million tons, a 232,000 - ton increase from the previous period [113]. Demand - The weekly demand for SiMn in five major steel types was 126,590 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. The daily hot metal output decreased by 11,700 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.44 percentage points, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.43 percentage points [113][246]. Inventory - As of May 22, the national SiMn inventory was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous period [113].