金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

（来源：锰言硅语） 《铁合金在线》2026-1-5：今日硅锰期货开盘后震荡下行，主力合约跌下5900线，高位凸显不稳定性。 现货市场方面，工厂报价暂时与节前持平，北方集中在5600-5700元/吨区间，南方集中在5750-5800元/ 吨区间，节前南北5600-5650元/吨区间有部分成交，下游钢招定标在5850元/吨以上。河北代表钢厂尚未 进场采购，开盘首日下跌冲击下，贸易商信心有所动摇。今日期现报价北方产区提货05合约下浮350- 400区间，近期贸易零售成交多集中在5450-5500元/吨区间。 锰矿相对坚挺运行，天津港锰矿现货（元/吨度）：CML澳块报价44，成交43-44；South32澳块报价 42，成交41.5-42；南非块报价35.5-36，成交35-35.5；加蓬块报价43-43.5，成交42.5-43；钦州港South32 澳块报价41.5-42，成交41-41.5；CML澳块报价42-42.5，成交41.5-42；南非块报价35.5-36，成交35- 35.5；澳籽分指标报价35.5-37；加蓬块报价41.5-42。锰矿库存方面，截止12月31日天津港库存338.88万 吨，环比下降11 ...

【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。在缺乏新催化剂、 流动性偏紧的背景下，美联储会议纪要未能提振美股。接下来重点关注特朗普公布的下任 美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任 务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。 而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现 偏弱，仍需政策托底。关注国内 PMI 数据公布情况。 人民币汇率：7 关口迎终局检验 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 6.9901，较上一交易日上涨 197 个基点，创 2023 年 5 月以来新高，夜盘收报 6.9940。在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度 均升破 6.99 关口。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0348，较上 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：交易情绪提振，玻碱盘面反弹 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘中波动加剧，成交活跃。现货方面，下游以观望刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，下游报价有所上调，期现成交惨淡，刚需采 购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所缓解，产量有所回落，库存持续下降。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投产， 同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持续关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：合金期货反弹，现货小幅调整 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货反弹飘红。现货端：硅锰市场表现强势，期货开盘继续上行 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（236）期 发布日期：2025-12-26 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,107.50 | 1,124.00 | -16.50 | -1.468 | | | 焦炭 | 1,707.00 | 1,739.00 | -32.0 | -1.840 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,715.00 | 15,730.00 | -15.0 | -0.095 | | | 20号胶 | 12,765.00 | 12,695.00 | 70.0 | 0.551 | | | 塑料 | 6,355.00 | 6,390.00 | -35.0 | -0.548 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,220.00 | 6,266.00 | -46.0 | -0.734 | | | (PTA) | 5,216.00 | 5,152.00 | 64.0 | 1.242 | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel maintains production cuts and inventory reduction, with the production dropping by 6.7% from the high level. The inventory reduction is decent under the impact of production cuts, but the inventory structure is still differentiated. Rebar has better inventory reduction and runs at a relatively low inventory level, while hot-rolled coil has slow inventory reduction after production cuts and maintains a year-on-year high inventory pattern. Production cuts support steel prices, and combined with the stabilization of coking coal prices, steel prices repair upwards from the low level, but the demand is weak and the upward driving force is insufficient. Overall, it is judged to maintain a range-bound trend. It is expected that rebar will remain in the range of 3000 - 3200, and hot-rolled coil will remain in the range of 3150 - 3350. Rebar maintains good inventory reduction, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can continue to be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to accelerate the inventory reduction of hot-rolled coil, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar in May should be exited at low prices. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is still weak. In May, iron ore rises to repair the discount. Considering the low level of hot metal, one can try to go long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore at low prices [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, showing weakness when rising. The spot price was basically stable compared with the previous trading day, and buyers were cautious. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments in this period decreased slightly month-on-month but still remained at a high level in the same period of history. The year-end volume rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the absolute value was at a high level in the same period of history. According to the shipment calculation, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. On the demand side, the hot metal production continued to decline month-on-month, and the overall level dropped to a relatively low level in history. How to digest the hot-rolled coil inventory and the resilience of off-season demand will determine the downward space of hot metal. Based on the current hot-rolled coil inventory and the historical inventory-to-sales ratio, the downward space of hot metal is relatively limited. In terms of inventory, the inventory on Monday increased significantly month-on-month. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level, the port clearance volume will decline under production cuts, and iron ore will still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern, but the marginal inventory accumulation space will be less than before. The subsequent BHP negotiation results will determine when to trade the high-inventory contradiction. Looking forward to the future, the key lies in the BHP negotiation situation, the hot metal trend, and the steel mill restocking expectation. In the short term, it is difficult for the iron ore supply - demand contradiction to form a trend of decline, and there is obvious suppression from high inventory above the price. It is expected to maintain a range-bound trend, with the range referring to 730 - 820. Strategically, it is recommended to mainly conduct short - term operations in the range of the 05 contract and try to short at around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded, rising during the night session and then falling back. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke landed on December 22, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price fell in advance and is currently stable. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, putting pressure on coking profits and leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, the hot metal production declined, the steel price oscillated at a low level, and there was a willingness to suppress the coke price. In terms of inventory, coking plants accumulated inventory, while ports and steel mills reduced inventory. The overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position, and the coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the decline space of coking coal. Strategically, there is an expectation of a short - term rebound, and one can go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices (starting from the J2604 contract, the delivery deduction price for wet - quenched coke is 110 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures continued to rebound, rising during the night session and then falling back. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to mixed trends, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate began to decline, and the trading improved. Traders restocked cautiously, and the thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, the daily output decreased slightly, coal mines accumulated inventory again due to unsalable products, and the coal mine output may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imports, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. Mines rushed to ship at the end - year high - clearance level. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, the hot metal production declined, coking profits declined, production started slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened as it declined. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants and coking enterprises reduced inventory, while coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports increased inventory. The overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Policy - wise, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires central enterprises to consciously resist "involution - style" competition. Strategically, there is an expectation of a short - term rebound, and one can go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated. On the supply side, the ferrosilicon production decline widened last week, and the production increase was mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Qinghai. Manufacturers' losses continued to deepen, and they tried to relieve the supply - demand contradiction through passive production cuts and conversions. In terms of steel demand, the hot metal production continued to decline month - on - month. The inventory contradiction of steel plates was somewhat relieved, but the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level. The hot metal will continue to reduce production, and the downward space may be limited. In the short term, the ferrosilicon demand in steelmaking will maintain a contraction pattern. In terms of non - steel demand, the ferrosilicon spot price stopped falling and stabilized, stimulating some restocking demand, but downstream buyers had a low acceptance of high prices. The metal magnesium supply did not decrease, supporting the ferrosilicon demand. In terms of exports, overseas is approaching Christmas, and the export order transactions are okay, but the acceptance of high prices is insufficient. In addition, the re - export trade from Russia and North Korea still has an impact. On the cost side, the semi - coking coal price decreased slightly, and the price in cost - advantageous areas was relatively competitive. Looking forward to the future, the ferrosilicon supply - demand contradiction still needs to be resolved, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. However, the subsequent demand improvement expectation is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. The production cuts have already digested the price impact, and attention should be paid to the semi - coking coal price fluctuations. In the short term, it is expected that the price will oscillate in a range, with the range referring to 6400 - 5650 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the main contract of ferromanganese futures oscillated. On the supply side, the production in the main production areas decreased slightly month - on - month. Production in cost - advantageous areas was relatively stable, and there was still an expectation of new capacity release in some areas in Inner Mongolia recently. The two major production areas maintained production cuts and maintenance. On the demand side, the hot metal production declined month - on - month. The high - inventory contradiction of hot - rolled coils still has room for production cuts, but it is relatively limited after calculation. The overall steelmaking demand will maintain a contraction trend, and steel mills have a strong tendency to suppress prices. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory still remained at a high level. The insufficient production cut strength led to a limited month - on - month decline in inventory, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was firm. Some foreign mines' quotes for January increased, and the electricity price remained stable. In the short term, manganese ore provided certain cost support. Overall, ferromanganese is in a state of oversupply in its own market but relatively balanced in the overall market. The manganese ore provides certain support for the ferromanganese price. The subsequent key lies in the production cut amplitude and the raw material restocking expectation of steel mills during the year - end winter storage. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been priced in, and there is no clear signal for a trend - like rebound. It is expected that the price will still run weakly in the future, but the trend - like decline is limited. Strategically, one can consider short - term operations, trying to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions remained stable or slightly decreased, while futures prices increased slightly [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The cost of steel production in some regions increased slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in some regions improved, while the profit of rebar in some regions also improved [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production and the production of five major steel products decreased. The rebar production increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly. The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building material trading volume increased, while the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types were basically stable or slightly decreased, and the basis of the 05 contract and the spreads between different contracts decreased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores at Rizhao Port and some price indexes were basically stable or slightly decreased [4]. Supply and Demand - The arrival volume and global shipments of iron ore decreased, and the demand indicators such as hot metal production, port clearance volume, and national pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke prices showed a downward trend, with some contracts rising slightly. Coking coal prices were relatively stable, with some varieties showing small fluctuations [6]. Supply - Coke production decreased, and coking coal production from sample mines decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coke, mainly from hot metal production, decreased. The demand for coking coal was affected by the decline in coke production [6]. Inventory - The coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with different trends among coking plants, ports, and steel mills. The coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with different trends in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Spot Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased slightly. The spot prices of ferrosilicon were basically stable, and the spot prices of ferromanganese increased slightly in some regions [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit improved. The manganese ore price was firm, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased, and the ferromanganese production in the main areas decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking decreased due to the decline in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still relatively high [7].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-16 期货价格上扬，市场观望为主 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪缓和，玻碱震荡调整 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡运行，盘面小幅上涨，成交活跃。现货方面，下游交投情绪一般，按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供满矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且伴随着淡 季到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，成本支撑凸显。现货方面，盘面反弹期现成交惨淡，以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存虽有去化，但 考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 双硅：期货价格上扬，市场观望为主 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日通过钢银公布的上周钢材消费数据来看，目前建材消费较好，虽处淡季，但去库依旧尚可，随着 黑色反弹，硅 ...

市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足， 供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化，但仍处高位，后续玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃 冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-10 市场需求转弱，铁矿弱势震荡 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏紧，玻碱窄幅震荡 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货先抑后扬运行，收盘于5732元/吨。现货端：锰矿现货市场报价坚挺，6517北方市场价格 5490-5550元/吨，南方市场价格5520-5570元/吨。 整体来看，当前硅锰企业持续亏损下，产量及开工率延续回落。但减产力度不足，致使企业库存高位。港口锰矿 库存小幅回升，锰元素总库存持稳，为硅锰带来成本支撑。后期关注硅锰基差、锰矿成本支撑及产量变化情况。 硅铁方面，昨日硅铁主力合约收盘于5462元/吨。现货端：硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5100-5200元/吨， 75硅铁价格报56 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, and imports were 1.675 trillion yuan, up 0.2% [7]. - Many experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and continue to moderately increase the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, etc., making the new government debt scale in 2026 exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 9, 2025, most chemical futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil futures dropped by 2.098% to 448 yuan/ton, and the price of glass futures dropped by 2.096% to 981 yuan/ton. Only a few contracts such as 20 - number rubber, paper pulp, and LPG showed an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand, innovation - driven development, and risk prevention [7]. - China's foreign trade maintained growth in the first 11 months of 2025, with exports growing faster than imports [7]. - The national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of more than 29 trillion yuan from January to November this year, and investigated and recovered 1.523 billion yuan in taxes from 1,818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals [8]. - Domestic refined oil prices had a "two - consecutive decline", with the retail price limits of gasoline and diesel per ton reduced by 55 yuan starting from 24:00 on December 8 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 0.67% to 8,018 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term may continue to be weakly volatile [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 8, the price rose slightly by 0.34% to 5,337 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the short - term may turn to a shock, with limited upside space [13]. - Corn futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 1.57% to 2,261 yuan/ton. The supply is tight in the short - term, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up the price [13]. - Cotton futures: On December 8, the price was flat at 13,750 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, and the demand is marginally improved. The short - term is expected to be range - bound [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic market price is weakly running. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is improving. The futures price may have a phased callback risk [15]. - Caustic soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The Shandong region is expected to be stable, and the East China region continues to be weakly running [15]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term is under pressure and weakening [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro risks [19]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in an oversupply pattern, and the contract is running at a low level [19]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory contradiction is not significant, but it is temporarily dragged down by raw materials and is expected to have limited downward space [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures: On December 8, the three major indexes opened high and went high, and the trading volume increased. The spring market consensus is gathering. It is recommended to balance the allocation of relevant indexes [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation continues to exert influence, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. Glass and soda ash markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment and fluctuate. The supply - demand contradictions in glass and soda ash still exist, with high inventory pressure in glass and high - level inventory in soda ash. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures declined yesterday, and the spot market's trading center moved down. Soda ash futures rose, supported by rising costs. The downstream of both mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and high - inventory pressure remains. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has been slightly alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass may challenge the demand for heavy soda ash [1] - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate, and the spot market was stable. The 6517 silicon manganese price in the northern market was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton. Silicon iron futures fluctuated with the black - metal sector, and the spot market was weakly stable. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates declining, but the inventory is at a record high. The slight increase in port manganese ore inventory provides cost support. Silicon iron maintains high production and inventory, with weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased due to reduced operating rates, high inventory still suppresses prices [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]