黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡运行，日内波动较大且成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅0.98%。现货方面， 市场报价大体持稳，交投情绪有所减弱。供需与逻辑：国内强政策预期脉冲式提振低估值商品价格，对盘面形成 较大扰动。目前玻璃产量大体持稳，刚需整体变化有限。玻璃受政策影响较大，但较弱的基本面对于价格依旧形 成较强压制，后期持续关注政策变化及玻璃供应情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡偏弱，成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅1.73%，各个合约均有不同程度 下跌。现货方面，重碱报价部分下调，期现成交情况较好。供需与逻辑：国内强政策预期脉冲式提振低估值商品 价格，对盘面形成较大扰动。目前纯碱供需矛盾依旧不减，后续纯碱供给压力将进一步提升，需持续关注相关动 态。盘面升水刺激期现拿货，对近端价格形成较强压制。持续关注纯碱供应变化及下游需求情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 市场弱现实持续，钢材价格震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：观望情绪浓厚，玻碱震荡运行 硅锰方面：十一长假以来， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the financial futures market, the Fed's policy shows marginal loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern. The RMB exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 in the short term. The stock index adjustment amplitude and duration are to be observed, the treasury bond may rebound further, and the container shipping index may continue to fall or shock, with the risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [1][2][3][4] - In the commodity market, precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term; copper prices may continue to decline in the short - term; aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, while alumina is expected to be weak; zinc is in a short - term stalemate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong; tin is slightly strong; lithium carbonate may have short - term rebound opportunities; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment stage; lead is in a narrow - range shock; steel products are in a weak pattern; iron ore is expected to shock; coking coal and coke have price constraints; silicon iron and silicon manganese have supply pressure; crude oil is recommended to short at high prices; LPG is expected to be weak in the short - term; PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by cost and sentiment; PP is in a short - term shock pattern; PE is recommended to buy at low prices; pure benzene and styrene are in a shock - falling pattern; fuel oil is under downward pressure; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long; asphalt is mainly affected by cost; rubber is expected to be in a range - shock pattern; urea is in a pattern with support and suppression; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to be weak [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and service consumption may become a key area. Industrial enterprise profits are still in negative growth, and the overall domestic economic contradiction remains unchanged. The Fed's policy is marginally loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down slightly. The Fed's policy and other factors affect the exchange rate. The short - term dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 [1][2] Stock Index - The stock index fell sharply, with increased trading volume. Due to profit - taking and policy expectations, the short - term adjustment may continue, but the amplitude and duration are to be observed [2][3] Treasury Bond - The treasury bond rebounded. The stock market's high - level adjustment may provide room for the treasury bond to rebound further [3] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices fell. The current spot price situation and market sentiment are negative for the futures price, and there is a risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [3][4] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The precious metals market was slightly strong. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and personnel adjustment. The short - term is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7] Copper - The copper price fell slightly. The dollar index's rebound and demand factors put pressure on the copper price, and the short - term is expected to continue to decline [7][8][9] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term due to policy and demand factors. Alumina is expected to be weak due to supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong due to cost support [9][10] Zinc - The zinc price was slightly up. The supply is in a surplus state, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern, and an internal - external arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose, and the stainless steel price fell slightly. The market is waiting for a clear signal, and the short - term is expected to be strong, with attention to new energy support [13] Tin - The tin price rose. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is acceptable. The short - term is expected to be slightly strong [13][14] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated. The market is affected by "small essays", and the short - term may have a rebound opportunity, but the medium - long - term supply is still loose [15][16][17] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price was slightly up, and the polysilicon futures price fell. The market is affected by unverified news, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade with a shock strategy [17][18] Lead - The lead price fell slightly. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - so - prosperous peak season" situation. The short - term is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern [19][20] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to be weak. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The market is affected by coal supply and steel mill production reduction [21][22] Iron Ore - The iron ore price was relatively stable. The previous premium was small, and the short - term price decline space is limited. It is expected to run in a shock pattern [22][23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - The coking coal price was in a shock pattern, and the coke price had a downward pressure. The market is affected by coal supply, steel mill production reduction, and downstream demand [25][26][27] Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese - The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased, and the demand was not significantly improved. The price is affected by coal price and market sentiment, and it is recommended to try long at the 60 - day moving average [27][28] Energy & Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market was highly volatile. The EIA data was positive, but the market lacked a one - way trend. The Chinese SC crude oil was weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][30][31] LPG - The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply is loose, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be weak [32][33] PTA - PX - The PX - TA prices fluctuated widely. The supply is affected by device news, and the demand is seasonally improved. It is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][35][36] MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol market had both supply and demand growth. The short - term is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38] PP - The PP price was in a shock pattern. The supply is under pressure from new capacity, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [38][39][40] PE - The PE price fell slightly. The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery [41][42][43] Pure Benzene & Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices fell. The supply and demand of pure benzene are in a complex situation, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase, with attention to the inventory and demand [44][45] Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was under downward pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is acceptable. The market is affected by sanctions and inventory [46][47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil price was in a shock pattern. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The short - term is recommended to be long [47][48] Asphalt - The asphalt price was in a shock pattern. The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by weather and funds. The short - term is mainly affected by cost [48][49][50] Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber price was in a shock pattern. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is expected to be warm in the third quarter. The short - term is expected to be in a range - shock pattern [50][51][52] Urea - The urea price was in a pattern with support and suppression. The demand is affected by the military parade and export, and the short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern [53] Glass, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda - The soda ash price was in a weak pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by inventory and cost [53][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro - environment has led to a decline in market sentiment, and the sector is weak in the short term. The fundamentals show a mixed picture with production rising, inventory decreasing, and cost and profit factors varying. Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the flood - control situation remains severe, and the steel industry has achieved good results due to reduced crude steel production. Overseas, geopolitical tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes show an inflation - focused and hawkish stance [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, raw material port inventory has decreased by 2300 tons, and downstream iron - water production is at a high level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Given the exchange's second position limit in a month, the market sentiment has declined, and the silicon manganese should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 589,000 lots, a decrease of 2368 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 90, an increase of 2 points. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4703 to 70,094, and the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 24 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, the Inner Mongolia silicon manganese spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Production**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The national capacity utilization rate is 46.37%, an increase of 0.62%, and the daily average output is 30,170 tons, an increase of 590 tons. The weekly demand of the five major steel grades for silicon manganese is 125,285 tons, a decrease of 0.08%, and the weekly supply is 211,190 tons, an increase of 1.99% [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons [31]. - **Upstream**: The electricity cost and manganese ore price have remained flat. The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 23,000 tons. The northern region's spot production profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the southern region's is - 520 yuan/ton [33][39][47]. - **Downstream**: The iron - water production is at a high level, with a daily average of 240,750 tons. The August silicon manganese steel procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton [51].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high molten iron production provide support for ferroalloy demand. In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The anti - involution trading sentiment has faded, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions after a pullback [4] Summary by Content Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is in the range of 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferromanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 利多 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory was 9.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory was 17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% [5][7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 12.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory was 16.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt was 38.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory was 54.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region was - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [8] 利空 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production start - up rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output was 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory was 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area was - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (-234) [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output was 19.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 11, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 22, the 01 - 05 spread was - 98, the 05 - 09 spread was 284, the 09 - 01 spread was - 186. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5600, and 5500 respectively. The prices of semi - coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal were 595, 682, and 570 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 19646 [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 8, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 104, the 01 - 05 spread was - 40, the 05 - 09 spread was 138, the 09 - 01 spread was - 98, and the double - silicon spread was - 274. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5850, 5800, 5850, 5870, and 5830 respectively. The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, Qinzhou Gabonese ore, and Inner Mongolia chemical coke were 40.7, 35, 40.2, 37.8, 40.5, and 1110 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 76045 [9][10] Seasonal Data - The report also provides seasonal data on the market prices, basis, and futures spreads of silicon iron and silicon manganese, as well as the seasonal data of total silicon iron inventory and silicon manganese inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is rising, tariff disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment is fluctuating. Macro - policies support the industry, and the supply - demand situation shows that production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the cost and profit situation varies by region. Technically, the weekly K - line of manganese - silicon is bearish [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Macro - aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue growth - promoting plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The "two major" construction project list of 800 billion yuan and 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment have been basically allocated. Overseas, there are military threats from the US to Russia, a planned Putin - Trump summit, and the US may impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 100,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 70 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price in July has increased, and attention should be paid to the steel - making tender price in August [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - manganese market as fluctuating due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and volatile market sentiment [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 623,000 lots, a decrease of 35,000 lots from the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 98, an increase of 24 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 76,045, a decrease of 1,809. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts was 274, a decrease of 6 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The basis was - 176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 points [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25%. The daily output was 27,975 tons, an increase of 715 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1.20%, and the weekly supply was 195,825 tons, an increase of 2.62% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons. Inventory in different regions showed different changes [32]. - **Upstream**: The price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased by 3 yuan/ton - degree to 34 yuan/ton - degree, and the Australian manganese ore price remained unchanged at 51 yuan/ton - degree. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 110,000 tons to 4.385 million tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon decreased significantly. The northern region's spot production profit was - 85 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 410 yuan/ton [38][44][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week but an increase of 86,200 tons compared to last year. The Hebei Steel silicon - manganese tender price in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to June [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].