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硅锰市场周报:煤炭限仓资金避险,合金走弱期现下跌-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:42
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 硅锰市场周报 煤炭限仓资金避险,合金走弱期现下跌 研究员:徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面,水利部:当前仍处于主汛期,极端突发事件仍有可能发生,防汛形势依然严峻,预计至8月底有台风生成可能;7月 中国钢筋产量为1518.2万吨,同比下降2.3%;1-7月累计产量为11338.7万吨,同比下降2.3%;上半年钢铁行业整体取得较好 成绩,根本原因是粗钢产量大幅下降,供给端相对保持自律克制,使得钢铁行业在整体需求承压的情况下,仍然实现了效益改 善。 2. 海外方面,俄罗斯总统普京要求乌克兰放弃整个东部的顿巴斯地区和加入北约的野心,并且保持中立,禁止西方军队进入乌克 兰;美联储7月会议纪显示,多数人认为通胀比就业风险高、释放鹰派信号,多人认为关税影响或需时间全面显现,担心美债 市场脆弱,关注稳定币影响。 3. 供需方面,基本 ...
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 14:29
铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/11 陈敏涛(Z0022731 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高,担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...
硅锰市场周报:政策支撑、企业减排,现货涨价库存去化-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 10:17
政策支撑&企业减排,现货涨价库存去化 研究员:徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 硅锰市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面,机械工业联合会:近期工信部即将印发机械、汽车、电力装备等行业稳增长工作方案,着力提升优质供给能力,优 化行业发展环境,推动行业实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。8月1日,国家发改委政策研究室主任、新闻发言人蒋毅在新闻 发布会上透露,今年"两重"建设项目清单8000亿元已全部下达完毕,中央预算内投资7350亿元已基本下达完毕。 2. 海外方面,特朗普2.0时期首次对俄罗斯军事威胁,称下令将两艘美军核潜艇部署至相应区域;俄罗斯总统外交政策助理乌沙科 夫说,俄罗斯和美国已同意 "在未来几天内 "举行普京-特朗普峰会;美东时间8月6日,日本媒体称,美国对日本实行的15%关 税将在现有关税的基础上加征。 3. 供需方面,产量至5月中旬以 ...
黑色建材日报:市场预期提振,钢价小幅反弹-20250807
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]
金融期货早评-20250806
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250801
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:39
铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/1 陈敏涛(Z0022731 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 source: 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高,担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润,弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 400-6500 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低,希望根据订 | | 空 | 为了防止铁合金上涨而抬升采购成本,可以在目前阶段买入铁合 | SF2509、SM | 买入 | 25% | SF:5100-5200、SM:5 | | 理 | 单情况进行采购 | | ...
黑色建材日报:会议预期落地,成材宽幅震荡-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].
市场情绪好转,钢价震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 03:23
Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures declined 7.19% at the close due to a high previous settlement price, with strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market. Supply remains unchanged, real - estate drags on demand, speculative demand increases, inventory continues to decline but stays high. Long - term supply - demand is still loose. [1] - Soda ash futures also declined, with near - month contracts falling more than far - month ones. The main contract dropped 3.58% at the close. Both light and heavy soda ash are sold at reduced prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. Supply is high and in summer maintenance, capacity release is relatively restricted, and it may further increase later. [1] Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese futures rose 184 yuan/ton to 6212 yuan/ton, driven by a sharp increase in finished - product prices. Production increased, iron - water production slightly decreased, and inventory decreased slightly but remained high. Manganese ore shipments from Australia basically recovered, and enterprise hedging willingness increased after the price increase. [3] - Silicon iron futures closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Demand remains resilient, factory inventory is at a medium - high level. Short - term market sentiment improved, and long - term capacity is relatively loose. [3] Group 4: Strategies for Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - Silicon manganese: Expected to fluctuate [4] - Silicon iron: Expected to fluctuate [4] Group 5: Graphical Information - There are multiple graphical analyses including Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices, futures contract closing prices, cost, profit, and basis charts for various products such as steel, iron ore, coke, soda ash, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron. [5]
广发期货全品种价差日报-20250729
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 06:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities on July 29, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - Iron ore (12509): Spot price is 813, futures price is 786, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.39%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port [1]. - Coke (J2509): Data incomplete. - Coking coal (JM2509): Spot price is 1260, futures price is 1101, basis is 160, basis rate is 14.49%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79075, futures price is 79000, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the reference is the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20660, futures price is 20615, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 61.87%, and the reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Data incomplete. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 268800, futures price is 267880, basis is 920, basis rate is 0.34%, historical quantile is 71.66%, and the reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2509): Spot price is 73900, futures price is 73120, basis is 780, basis rate is 1.07%, historical quantile is 62.77%, and the reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2509): Spot price is 9950, futures price is 8915, basis is 1035, basis rate is 11.61%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the SMM flux 215530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 771.6, futures price is 774.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.41%, historical quantile is 18.60%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9186.0, futures price is 9212.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, historical quantile is 32.70%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2540, futures price is 2660.0, basis is - 120.0, historical quantile is 15.90%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI509): Spot price is 9490, futures price is 9406.0, basis is 84.0, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 36.50%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2319.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 63.30%, and the reference is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Partially incomplete data, with the price in Changchun, Jilin being 2740 for spot and 2683.0 for futures, basis is 57.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 26.00% [1]. - Live pigs (LH2509): Spot price is 14080, futures price is 14125.0, basis is - 45.0, basis rate is - 0.32%, historical quantile is 41.30%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of live pigs (outside ternary) in Henan [1]. - Eggs (JD2509): Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3576.0, basis is - 536.0, basis rate is - 14.99%, historical quantile is 5.90%, and the reference is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4800.0, futures price is 4812.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.29%, historical quantile is 47.10%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4500.0, futures price is 4436.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 83.00%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF509): Spot price is 6610.0, futures price is 6482.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.97%, historical quantile is 73.60%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7370.0, futures price is 7358.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.16%, historical quantile is 28.90%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7340.0, futures price is 7335.0, basis is 5.0, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 21.10%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong [1]. - PP (PP2509): Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7130.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.49%, historical quantile is 31.40%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (drawn - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2593.0, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 48.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 3992.0, basis is 456.0, basis rate is 11.42%, historical quantile is 62.90%, and the reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - Asphalt (BU2509): Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3569.0, basis is 206.0, basis rate is 5.77%, historical quantile is 82.70%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in the Shandong area [1]. - Glass (FG509): Spot price is 1200.0, futures price is 1223.0, basis is - 23.0, basis rate is - 1.98%, historical quantile is 57.77%, and the reference is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, from Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) [1]. - Soda ash (SA509): Spot price is 1320.0, futures price is 1316.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.30%, historical quantile is 33.61%, and the reference is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (daily) [1]. - Cotton (CF509): Spot price is 15473, futures price is 14075.0, basis is 1398.0, basis rate is 9.93%, and the reference is the factory - arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8052.0, basis is 548.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 43.40%, and the reference is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - Red dates (CJ601): Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10695.0, basis is - 2395.0, basis rate is - 22.39%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea (UR509): Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1738.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 24.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of urea (small - particle) in the Shandong area [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2404.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.48%, historical quantile is 27.30%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5100.0, futures price is 5149.0, basis is - 49.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2509): Spot price is 15100.0, futures price is 15065.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 96.87%, and the reference is the Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) [1]. Others - Alumina (AO2509): Spot price is 3244, futures price is 3243, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.48%, and the reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 122500, futures price is 121620, basis is 880, basis rate is 0.72%, historical quantile is 85.62%, and the reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2509): Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12840, basis is 230, basis rate is 1.79%, historical quantile is 44.42%, and the reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5878, futures price is 5840, basis is 38, basis rate is 0.65%, historical quantile is 63.00%, and the reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 5970, futures price is 6028, basis is - 58, basis rate is - 0.96%, historical quantile is 17.80%, and the reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3248, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.37%, and the reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3397, basis is 43, basis rate is 1.27%, and the reference is Q235B: 4.75mm in Shanghai [1].
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250728
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 10:31
Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]