在过去的近一个月的时间里，全球的宏观运行呈现以下一些特征： 第一， 美元流动性出现了明显的反复，虽然美联储降息和缩表不断落地，但美联储尝 试释放中性信号而避免释放过于鸽派的信息，其对于美债收益率曲线和美元汇 率稳定的诉求较为强烈，这引发了美元资产的回落并把紧张向非美地区传导； 第二，进入到 10 月份之后，伴随美元流动性的反复而出现的宏观现象是经贸 和地缘局势的扰动，在经贸问题上，特朗普的 TACO 交易再现，中美领导人的 APEC 会议上的会晤还是平稳落地了，但特朗普访华时间延后。虽然中东的局 势没有进一步恶化，但是在俄乌仍然焦灼的背景下，地缘风险又有向亚洲蔓延 的特征；第三，面对外部的不确定性，在美联储降息之际，国内的经济政策亦 有一些动作，比如央行宣布恢复国债的购买，但整体来看经济政策的变动不大。 商业银行准备金的大幅回落，从而引发了流动性的压力 升，这倒逼了美联储停止缩表以及美国政府结束停摆 相应大类资产运行则呈现出以下几个方面的特征： 第一，在此前"复苏" 交易和"衰退"交易并存在定价体系下，进入到 10 月份之后随着美元流动性 的压力再现，大类资产的定价整体朝着避险甚至"滞胀"交易进行了回摆，商 ...

2025年11月28日 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 黑色供应周报-铁合金 从业资格号:F3075616 交易咨询从业证书号 Z0018025 | | 罐 | | 万吨 | | | 健鉄 | ] 神 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | 地区 | 周产 | 环比(吨) | 累计同比 | | 全国 | 19.48 | (2135) | (13.26) | 全国 | 10.72 | (1050) | 3.22 | | 内蒙古 | 9.77 | 210 | 0.71 | 内蒙古 | 3.80 | (490) | 4.06 | | 宁夏 | 4.34 | (1190) | 13.20 | 宁夏 | 2.61 | 0 | 10.44 | | 广西 | 1.07 | 0 | (0.44) | 陕西 | 1.84 | 0 | 0.05 | | 贵州 | 1.49 | 945 | (16.35) | 青海 | 1.39 | 0 | (12.30) | | 云南 | 0.74 | (1890) | 13 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 硅锰市场周报 产业定价板块偏弱，供需偏弱库存高位 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 行情回顾及展望 持仓量下降1万手，月差下降14个点 图1、硅锰期货合约持仓量 来源：文华财经 瑞达期货研究院 图2、硅锰跨期价差走势图 「 期现市场情况」 1. 宏观方面，宏观方面，国家发改委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超11月27日在新闻发布会上表示，今年供暖季能源供需总 体是平衡的，资源供应有保障；国家发改委：截至11月26日，全国统调电厂存煤超过2.3亿吨，可用天数约35天；11月24日， 韩国宣布自公告当日起，对中国产中厚板及合金钢板热轧厚板加征反倾销关税，实施期限为5年；1-10月钢铁行业盈利1053.2 亿元，同比由亏转盈。 2. 海外方面，美联储理事沃勒表示，现有数据显示，美国就业市场依然疲软，足以促使美联储在12月9-10日会议上再次降息25个 基点。 3. 供需方 ...

咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、 ...

价格 铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5100 5120 | 0 0 | -50 -80 | 5400 5470 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5390 5380 | -26 -12 | -56 -30 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5344 | -32 | -56 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | -50 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5430 | -38 | -66 | | | 陕西#75 | 5700 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 10 | 26 | 6 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...

黑色建材日报 2025-11-28 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3093 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.19%）。当日注册仓单 37919 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 106.9617 万手，环比减少 131083 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3293 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.33%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 87.6319 万手，环比减少 58870 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价 ...

周三现货成交再度小缩量,螺纹贸易现货成交量回落至9wtt 。近期价格表现偏震荡,在3000低点构筑的区间支撑,有尝 反弹的冲动,但基于需求暂无太多想象力,暂时上方空间还未打开。近期产业矛盾并不共振,新驱动尚未形成,或许约束价 格仍在区间内运行:一是钢材期价静态估值不高,在产业亏损甚至会进一步触发减产的时间节点,继续打压价格的安全边际 不够;二是涨价驱动力始终无法形成,刚需逐渐转弱,投机需求脉冲式表现。产业端能提供的矛盾并不显性,市场参与者 动持货意愿或投机的信心不强;三是钢厂有远端减产的担忧这一问题并没有实质性消除,产业上下游无法形成共振逻辑, 于此,未来一段时间,钢材产量逐步回落仍是大的产业逻辑主线,目前可能需要适当等待减产逻辑兑现。 【硅铁锰硅】驱动不足,价格震荡 近期双硅价格跟随板块震荡为主,整体驱动不强。宏观政策虽有预期利好,但未证实。基本面上,随着钢材价格承压,钢 | | | | | | | | | ER FARFEN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The silicon iron market is subject to market sentiment disturbances and experiences wide - range fluctuations; the manganese silicon market has a firm price at the ore end and also experiences wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon iron 2603 has a closing price of 5390, down 26 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 317,259 and an open interest of 248,587; silicon iron 2605 has a closing price of 5344, down 32, with a trading volume of 15,619 and an open interest of 46,850; manganese silicon 2601 has a closing price of 5626, down 4, with a trading volume of 144,376 and an open interest of 332,903; manganese silicon 2605 has a closing price of 5676, down 6, with a trading volume of 46,011 and an open interest of 143,373 [1] Spot Data - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5120 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 41.5 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 820 yuan/ton [1] Spread Data - The spot - 03 futures spread of silicon iron is - 270 yuan/ton, up 26; the spot - 01 futures spread of manganese silicon is - 126 yuan/ton, up 4; the near - far month spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 is 46 yuan/ton, up 6; the near - far month spread of manganese silicon 2601 - 2605 is - 50 yuan/ton, up 2; the cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2603 - silicon iron 2603 is 238 yuan/ton, up 26; the cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 is 332 yuan/ton, up 26 [1] Group 4: Macro and Industry News Price Quotes - On November 27, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5050 - 5150, in Ningxia is 5100 - 5150 (down 25), in Qinghai is 5100 - 5150 (down 25), in Gansu is 5100 - 5200, in Inner Mongolia is 5100 - 5150; the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5700 - 5750, in Ningxia is 5600 - 5650, in Qinghai is 5600 - 5650, in Gansu is 5600 - 5650 (down 25), in Inner Mongolia is 5650 - 5700; the FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1020 - 1040 (down 10), the FOB price of 75 silicon iron is 1090 - 1120 (down 10 - 20); the northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5600 yuan/ton [2] - Yunnan Qujing Chengsteel finalized the purchase price of silicon iron at 5690 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 400 tons [2] Production Data - In November, the operating rate of silicon iron enterprises in Inner Mongolia is 63.03%, up 0.64% from October, with an estimated output of 15.87 million tons, up 0.73 million tons from October, and a capacity utilization rate of 66.1%; the operating rate of silicon iron enterprises in Gansu is 38.67%, down 2.66% from October, with an estimated output of 4.47 million tons, down 1.15 million tons from October, and a capacity utilization rate of 35.42% [3] - In November, there are 14 silicon manganese enterprises operating in other northern regions, with 23 furnaces in operation at the end of the month. The silicon manganese output in November is 79,700 tons (up 2300 tons) [3] - In November, there are 3 silicon manganese enterprises operating in Sichuan and Chongqing regions, with 12 furnaces in operation. The total output of silicon manganese in Sichuan and Chongqing is about 53,200 tons (down 2800 tons) [3] - In November, a 6014 factory in Hunan stopped production due to a 0.1 - yuan increase in electricity price. A new production capacity was put into operation in the middle of the month, and it is expected to start production in early December. The silicon manganese output in other southern regions in November is about 5200 tons (down 1400 tons) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Subject to market sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: The price of the ore end is firm, wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 futures was 799.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.31%); the open interest decreased by 5,496 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 futures was 3,093 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the closing price of HC2601 futures was 3,293 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%). Spot prices in some regions declined, and there were changes in basis and spread values [7] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 871 million tons, a decrease of 22 million tons (2.5%) from the previous month. In October 2025, national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, etc. [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 futures decreased by 26 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of silicomanganese 2601 and 2605 futures decreased by 4 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices and various spread values showed corresponding changes [11] - **Macro - Industry News**: In November, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia was 63.03%, an increase of 0.64% from October, and the output was expected to be 158,700 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from October; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu was 38.67%, a decrease of 2.66% from October, and the output was expected to be 44,700 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from October. There were also changes in the production of silicomanganese in other regions [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 coking coal futures was 1,071 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton (- 1.2%); the closing price of J2601 coke futures was 1,607 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). Spot prices and basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spread values of different log futures contracts showed various changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Starting from November 10, 2025, the General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset. For silicomanganese, with stable supply - demand and cost support, it is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The overall alloy valuation is not high, with cost support. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF main contract closed at 5390, down 26 from the previous day and 56 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 317,259 (down 75,844 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,279 (up 19,308 from the previous day) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5628, unchanged from the previous day and up 14 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 144,376 (up 20,465 from the previous day) and an open interest of 332,903 (down 37,054 from the previous day) [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Qinghai, it was 5250, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5520, unchanged from the previous day and up 120 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5400, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5500, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5480, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Guangxi, it was 5530, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5650, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5630, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and down 24 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 140, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 320, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; SF - SM spread was - 238, down 26 from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 128, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 148, unchanged from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 98, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 30, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was priced at 39.8, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.1 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.2, down 0.1 from the previous day and the previous week; Gabon lump was 41.5, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 from the previous week [2][3][4] - Lanthanum semi - coke small materials: In Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2][3][4] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon - On November 27, the spot price was stable overall. The supply is in a downward trend as alloy plants enter the maintenance phase. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the recent weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The cost of ferroalloy electricity prices in each region is generally stable. Overall, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and with a low self - valuation level, it should be operated with a bottom - oscillation mindset [6] 3.2.2 Silicomanganese - On November 27, manganese ore spot was slightly weak, with Tianjin Port semi - carbonate down 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and silicomanganese spot also slightly weak, with some regional spots down 20 yuan/ton. The supply is in a downward trend. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot price is firm, leading to an increase in the cost. Under stable supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall alloy valuation is not high, and the cost is supported, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot price of silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, etc [9][11][13][15][18][24]