黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡运行，日内波动较大且成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅0.98%。现货方面， 市场报价大体持稳，交投情绪有所减弱。供需与逻辑：国内强政策预期脉冲式提振低估值商品价格，对盘面形成 较大扰动。目前玻璃产量大体持稳，刚需整体变化有限。玻璃受政策影响较大，但较弱的基本面对于价格依旧形 成较强压制，后期持续关注政策变化及玻璃供应情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡偏弱，成交活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅1.73%，各个合约均有不同程度 下跌。现货方面，重碱报价部分下调，期现成交情况较好。供需与逻辑：国内强政策预期脉冲式提振低估值商品 价格，对盘面形成较大扰动。目前纯碱供需矛盾依旧不减，后续纯碱供给压力将进一步提升，需持续关注相关动 态。盘面升水刺激期现拿货，对近端价格形成较强压制。持续关注纯碱供应变化及下游需求情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 市场弱现实持续，钢材价格震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：观望情绪浓厚，玻碱震荡运行 硅锰方面：十一长假以来， ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 790. 5 | 10. 0 | 1. 28% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 459. 565 | 12. 200 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 9 | | 锡：加速上行 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：基本面与宏观情绪博弈，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：基本面与宏观情绪博弈，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 780. 5 | -3.5 | -0. 45% | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需环比好转，产量持平，库存继续降低，供需出现积极变化，但降库速度仍然有 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 待观察。铁水产量继续上升，钢材整体供应水平较高。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | | 然未出现明显改善，房地产及基建表现仍然形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，宏观事件兑 | | | | 现后情绪有所降温，整体维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需变化不大，产量小幅回落，库存略增，总体变化不大，供需相对平稳，矛盾不 | | | 谨慎看空 | 大。铁水产量继续回升，钢材整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少向上驱动，整体维持区 | | ★ | | 间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，钢厂、港口库存双增，节前补库接近尾声，假期钢企生产积极性仍然较 | | ★ | 轻多参与 | 强，外矿发运有回落预期，基本面持续支撑价格，建议多单轻仓参与。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭进入提涨阶段，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润尚可，现货生产相对稳定。焦炭产量环比 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 略降，但库存有所增加。铁水产 ...

2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 财联社 9 月 18 日电，美国联邦储备委员会当地时间 17 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基 点到 4.00%-4.25%之间，符合市场普遍预期。(来自财联社 App) 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions initially, then suggested to close long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish, suggest to take profit on long positions [1][18][20] Core Views - **Steel Products**: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, with real estate and infrastructure still dragging. The supply is high, and after the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade in a range [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. With pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong in the short term, but the upward driving force is insufficient after the restocking is nearly finished [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price increase but it is not yet finalized. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production is recovering, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed due to high molten iron output. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later, and it will trade in a range [1][14][16] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply is still high, and the subsequent destocking may be difficult. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but high warehouse receipts suppress the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, production is flat, and inventory continues to decline, but the destocking speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high, and downstream demand is weak [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has little change, production has slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The overall change is small, and supply - demand is relatively stable [1][4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. Steel mills and ports have increased their inventories, and the restocking is nearly finished. The short - term fundamentals are strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [1][7][8] Coke - **Market Conditions**: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coking enterprises and steel mills. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, production is relatively stable, but production has slightly decreased and inventory has increased. The demand is high due to high molten iron output, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] Coking Coal - **Market Conditions**: Domestic production is recovering, approaching last year's level, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed by high molten iron output. The total inventory is increasing, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later [1][14][16] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking may be difficult. The cost supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][18][19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts are still high, suppressing the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [1] - **Long Position Holding**: Iron ore [1] Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After the macro sentiment cools down, it will operate within a range. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still act as a drag. The overall demand for steel is weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [1][8] - **Coke**: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [1][16] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit. After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][20][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Variety Views**: The apparent demand for rebar has improved month-on-month, production has decreased slightly, and inventory has begun to decline, but the destocking speed remains to be observed. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil has declined, and production and inventory have increased slightly, with relatively stable supply and demand [4] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Due to limited supply and demand driving forces and the cooling of macro sentiment, both rebar and hot-rolled coil will operate within a range [5] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [2] Iron Ore - **Variety Views**: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [8] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions [9] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [6] Coke - **Variety Views**: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The coking enterprise profit is acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [12] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [13] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - **Variety Views**: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [16] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [17] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [15] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Variety Views**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit [20] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [21] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [19]