| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 目前高炉利润仍然较好，电炉利润较前期亦有好转，钢厂生产积极性较高，铁水产量高 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 位运行。需求端总体仍然较弱，建筑钢材成交低位徘徊。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产低于预 | | ★ | | 期，供需预计趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，行情持续回落。但后期不排除 | | | | 仍会有政策扰动，同时在美联储释放宽松信号后，短期或反弹。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需以及库存均略增，基本面相对平稳。唐山高炉阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。期货偏弱运行，连续下跌后短期下方空间或已有限，短线或有反 | | ★ | | 弹。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，环保限产力度不及预期，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 基本面中性偏弱。宏观情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第八轮提涨，焦企利润有所改善，利润总体转正。当前焦炭供需总体相对 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 平衡，产量及库存偏 ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend and strategy outlooks for multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views are as follows: - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite has not significantly declined, and support remains [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is biased towards fundamentals, with weak and volatile trends [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.13%). The open interest increased by 674 to 449,577 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose by 2.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton, while PB fines (61.5%) dropped by 2.0 yuan/ton to 768.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (- 1.48%), with a trading volume of 1,121,791 lots and an open interest of 1,608,694 lots, a decrease of 1,199 lots. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%), with a trading volume of 380,711 lots and an open interest of 1,184,978 lots, a decrease of 17,753 lots. Spot prices generally declined [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month). Other macro and industry data are also provided [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for rebar is - 1 (weak), and for hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2509, the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 44,328 lots and an open interest of 41,200 lots. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5,842 yuan/ton, down 184 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 193,093 lots and an open interest of 114,885 lots. Spot prices also declined [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, the price ranges of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal (JM2601), the closing price was 1,194.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a trading volume of 1,364,959 lots and an open interest of 713,865 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots. For coke (J2601), the closing price was 1,708.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.4%), with a trading volume of 26,198 lots and an open interest of 38,416 lots, a decrease of 129 lots. Spot prices showed mixed trends [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a short - term bearish view on the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures [5] Report's Core View - The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased while demand has decreased, which may suppress the futures prices of the two products in the short term [4][5] Summary by Related Content Disk Situation - The SM2601 contract closed at 5914 today, down 206 points or 3.37% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 18.59%. The SF2601 contract closed at 5652, down 214 points or 3.65% from yesterday's close, with a daily increase in positions of 21.39% [4] Influencing Factors - Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25th to September 3rd, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31st to September 3rd, blast furnaces will be restricted by 40% [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output was 29,580 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%, and the daily average output was 16,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.43% or 535 tons [4] Analysis and Suggestions - The start - up of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises increased significantly last week. According to the spot cost, manufacturers' profitability is good, and previously shut - down enterprises are actively resuming production. The supply is on an accelerating upward trend, which suppresses the prices of the two products. On the other hand, due to the approaching September 3rd parade, steel mills have received production restriction notices, which will affect the daily output of hot metal by about 100,000 tons. The short - term demand for the two products in steelmaking is affected. In the futures market, the increasing hedging demand of enterprises may suppress the futures prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. For example, iron ore has support as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation; coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate at high levels; logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5][8][9][13][16][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trend strength is 1. On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - adding list [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.88%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,419 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.20%). In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7% month - on - month, pig iron by 3.2% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [9][10][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6,026 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (- 3.5%); for coke futures contract J2601, the closing price was 1,702 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan (- 1.6%). The trend strength of both is 0 [16][18]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The price of various log products showed different changes in terms of closing price, trading volume, and position. For example, the closing price of the 2509 log contract decreased by 2.1% week - on - week. In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 14, the silicon - iron 2511 contract reported 5918, down 2.18%. The market should be treated as fluctuating, and investors are advised to control risks. The macro - economic situation shows that single - month loan readings are not sufficient to accurately reflect economic activity. Supply and demand have seen a rapid increase in production and inventory in recent weeks after profit improvement. The cost of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is 150 yuan/ton. The August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. - On August 14, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract reported 6144, down 1.06%. The market should be treated as fluctuating, and investors are advised to control risks. Since August 15, 2025, trading sentiment has been affected by position limits. Fundamentally, production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level after the recent price increase. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 10.4 tons, and the downstream hot - metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 100 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 40 yuan/ton. The August steel mill procurement tender price increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 6,050.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,744.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 605,369.00 hands, down 18,227.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 442,759.00 hands, down 13,384.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 104,374.00 hands, down 1,083.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon - iron was - 34,653.00 hands, up 1,088.00 hands [2]. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 94.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 160.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - The SM warehouse receipt was 75,359.00 sheets, down 87.00 sheets; the SF warehouse receipt was 20,976.00 sheets, up 373.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,920.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,700.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,833.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan; the SF main - contract basis was - 114.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; the SM main - contract basis was - 150.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African manganese ore (Mn38 block, Tianjin Port) was 34.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 448.90 million tons, up 10.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 43.43%, up 1.25%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate was 34.32%, up 0.56% [2]. - The manganese - silicon supply was 195,825.00 tons, up 5,005.00 tons; the silicon - iron supply was 109,100.00 tons, up 4,700.00 tons [2]. - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 161,500.00 tons, down 2,500.00 tons; the silicon - iron manufacturer inventory was 7.17 million tons, up 0.62 million tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon - iron was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 125,200.00 tons, up 1,485.00 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from five major steel types was 20,266.30 tons, up 344.30 tons [2]. - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - The crude - steel output was 8,318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Bitcoin's dominance has fallen below 60% for the first time since February 1, and the cryptocurrency market has soared to over $4 trillion [2]. - The verified capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.7%, down 0.2% week - on - week; the daily output of raw coal was 1.879 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the raw - coal inventory was 4.702 million tons, down 0.064 million tons; the daily output of clean coal was 0.764 million tons, up 0.009 million tons; the clean - coal inventory was 2.577 million tons, up 0.12 million tons [2]. - On August 13, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke procurement price for the sixth time [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that sanctions or secondary tariffs might increase if the meeting between Trump and Putin did not go well [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - financial sector, the policy shows care for the capital market. The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility but is mainly a dip - buying opportunity. The bond market is expected to see interest rates decline in the long run, with short - term fluctuations [3][6]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term disturbances from tariff expectations, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper, aluminum, and other metals have different price trends. Some metals are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while others are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policy [11][12]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may face downward pressure if demand cannot be effectively repaired. The focus of the black sector is on coking coal, and iron ore fluctuates with sentiment and fundamentals [24][26]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is considered undervalued and a good left - hand layout opportunity, while some products like PVC and PTA face supply - demand and valuation challenges [43][48]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and sugar have different price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market sentiment [57][58]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited opinions on the draft of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The draft of the Regulations on Promoting the Development of Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou was open for public comments. The Central Settlement Company simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [2]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy shows care for the capital market. After a previous continuous rise, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general idea is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan on the day [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but export pressure may increase in the future. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices declined. The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was falsified, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term disturbances, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated and declined. LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount. Domestic social inventory slightly declined, and the spot premium increased. The import loss was about 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: Under the expectation of Fed rate cuts, there is support from the emotional side. Copper raw material supply is tight in the short term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs forms upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the LME inventory also increased. The spot was at a discount, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The market sentiment is neutral and positive. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and external demand is resilient, but there is pressure from weak downstream consumption and trade uncertainties. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile [12]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore is in a loose state, domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The LME market has structural disturbances [13]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the mid - term industry is in an oversupply situation, the low LME warehouse receipts support short - term zinc prices, making it difficult for them to decline [13]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased in August, and the supply side narrowed slightly. Downstream consumption pressure is large, and the battery factory's operating rate declined rapidly [14][15]. - **Price Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the nickel - iron market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply pressure still exists. The spot market trading of refined nickel is average [16]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term macro sentiment is positive, but downstream demand improvement is limited, and prices still have correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the start - up rate has rebounded slightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Social inventory decreased slightly last week [17]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak. With the continuous progress of resumption in Myanmar, the upward space for tin prices is limited [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures contract limit up. The market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of a lithium mine [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize appropriate entry points according to their own operations [18]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels according to market sentiment, and pay attention to warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Social inventory decreased, and some specifications were in short supply. Raw material prices remained stable [20]. - **Price Outlook**: With the change of seasons and the improvement of the macro environment, stainless steel prices may be volatile and strong in August [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly, and the spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume was low, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are both weak. The upward space for prices is limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and social inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and if demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of terminal demand repair and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased. Steel mill iron water production decreased slightly, and port inventory fluctuated slightly [25][26]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season. There is still demand support, and it is necessary to pay attention to terminal demand changes [26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot prices declined, and inventory increased. Market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices significantly corrected. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot prices were stable, and inventory increased slightly. Supply increased, and downstream procurement slowed down. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. The market is affected by emotions in the short term, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals in the long term [31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price increased, and the basis was positive. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to industry policies [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the basis was negative. Supply is expected to increase in August, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, and prices are expected to be volatile in a wide range [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU fluctuated and rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall, with the long side emphasizing production reduction and demand improvement, and the short side emphasizing uncertain macro expectations and off - season demand [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral attitude, operate quickly in and out, and consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [42]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, while INE crude oil prices declined. Chinese crude oil and refined product inventories increased [43]. - **Outlook**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued and are a good left - hand layout opportunity [43]. Methanol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. Domestic production decreased again, and port inventory increased rapidly [44]. - **Strategy**: Methanol valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short as a variety in the sector [44]. Urea - **Market**: Futures prices fell, and the spot price also fell. Domestic production continued to decline, and demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [45]. - **Strategy**: Urea valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low levels [45]. Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose. The cost side has support, and the BZN spread is at a low level and has upward repair space [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and after the high - level inventory in ports is reduced, styrene prices may follow the cost side and rise [47]. PVC - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. Production increased, and downstream demand was weak. Inventory increased, and the valuation pressure was large [48]. - **Price Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to pay attention to whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply declined slightly, and downstream demand increased slightly. Port inventory increased [49]. - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [49]. PTA - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Demand is about to end the off - season [50][51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX at low levels in the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the CFR price also rose. PX load is at a high level, and downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased. Inventory may continue to decline [52]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil at low levels in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance. Trade inventory is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: Futures prices rose. Shandong refinery profits rebounded, and the supply of propylene may increase. Demand is in the off - season [54]. - **Price Outlook**: In July, prices may follow crude oil and be volatile and strong [54]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market**: Hog prices were mixed. The spot price continued to weaken, and the trading average weight decreased. The release of current inventory can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on medium - and long - term contracts on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and a few areas rose slightly. The supply was still sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose, and domestic soybean meal fell slightly. The spot basis was stable, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at low levels in the cost range, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [60]. Fats and Oils - **Market**: Palm oil prices rose sharply. Supported by the expected B50 policy in Indonesia, demand is stable, and Southeast Asian inventory is low [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of fats and oils is supported, but the upward space is limited. Palm oil prices may be stable in the short term and have an upward expectation in the fourth quarter [62]. Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were volatile. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity increased slightly, and the export volume to China decreased [63][64]. - **Price Outlook**: International and domestic sugar supplies are expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates decreased, and inventory decreased [65]. - **Price Outlook**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the market is bearish. The short - term trend is bearish [65].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/11 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...