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银行指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评
Tai Ping Yang· 2025-05-18 00:25
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Neutral," indicating that the overall return is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 Index over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The model assumes that the price movements of the underlying assets exhibit good local continuity, with trend reversals being significantly shorter than trend continuations. In cases of narrow consolidation, it is assumed that the previous trend will continue [3]. - The model's annualized return is reported at -7.72%, with a volatility of 17.15% and a maximum drawdown of 28.99%. The total return of the index during the period is 26.24% [3][4]. - The model's net value fluctuated slightly around the original value from March 7, 2023, to January 3, 2024, failing to achieve significant cumulative returns. After this period, the model's net value increased and reached a historical peak by May 22, 2024, but subsequently entered a prolonged drawdown [4]. Summary by Sections Model Overview - The model is designed for the Shenwan Primary Bank Index and uses a specific algorithm to determine trend directions based on price movements and volatility [3]. - The tracking period for the model is from March 7, 2023, to March 18, 2025 [3]. Model Performance - The model's performance was assessed over a defined period, showing that it is not suitable for direct application to the Shenwan Primary Bank Index due to its low annualized return and prolonged drawdown [4].