锂产业链一体化

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海南矿业(601969):油气业务快速增长,锂一体化产业链迎来投产年
Guotou Securities· 2025-04-07 12:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Mining is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 8.74 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.23 CNY [6]. Core Views - The report highlights rapid growth in oil and gas operations, with a focus on the integrated lithium industry chain entering a production phase in 2025 [1][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.066 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 13.11% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 12.97% to 706 million CNY [1]. - The report anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, projecting 5.359 billion CNY in 2025, 6.227 billion CNY in 2026, and 6.087 billion CNY in 2027 [11]. Summary by Sections Iron Ore Business - The average price for iron ore in 2024 was 109.5 USD/ton, down 9% year-on-year, but the company maintained a premium of approximately 16% over market prices [2]. - The production volume for finished ore was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, primarily due to extreme weather and safety inspections [2]. - The company aims to produce 2.4 million tons of finished ore in 2025, introducing higher-grade iron concentrate products [2]. Oil and Gas Business - The average Brent crude oil price in 2024 was 79.9 USD/barrel, down 3% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved a record equity production of 8.095 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a 29.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Plans for 2025 include reaching an equity production target of 10.74 million barrels of oil equivalent, with significant contributions from the Bajiao Field and Malaysia oil fields [3]. Lithium Industry - The Bougouni lithium mine's first phase is in trial production, with plans for formal production following compliance checks [4]. - The lithium hydroxide project has successfully completed trial runs, with expectations for qualified product output by April 2025 [4]. - The company targets a lithium concentrate production of 130,000 tons and sales of 120,000 tons in 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 767 million CNY in 2025, 821 million CNY in 2026, and 872 million CNY in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.38, 0.41, and 0.44 CNY per share [11]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 18.9, 17.6, and 16.6 times, indicating a favorable valuation trend [11].