锂电池业绩拐点
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锂电业绩拐点浮现,大周期即将来临?电池ETF(159755)连续3日上涨,权重股天赐材料10cm涨停,华友钴业、亿纬锂能涨超3%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-07 06:58
Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with weekly apparent demand reaching a new high and inventory days dropping to around 35 days, driven by strong demand from energy storage and power batteries [1] - Market sentiment is supported by seasonal demand, but there may be a seasonal decline in demand growth in Q4, increasing price volatility risks [1] - Long-term lithium mine capacity is on the rise, which will limit the upward space for lithium prices, while the resilience of demand beyond seasonal trends will be a key factor affecting price movements [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, the midstream industry chain of new energy vehicles is showing signs of price stabilization and improved supply-demand structure, indicating a potential new upward cycle [2] - The overall demand for lithium batteries is rapidly increasing, with a projected 30% year-on-year growth in net profit for the lithium battery industry chain in the first half of 2025, reversing the downward trend of the past two years [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, benefiting high-quality production capacities with technological and cost advantages [2] Group 3 - As of November 7, 2025, the Guozheng New Energy Vehicle Battery Index has risen by 2.57%, with the Battery ETF (159755) increasing by 2.63%, marking a three-day consecutive rise [3] - Over the past two weeks, the Battery ETF has accumulated a rise of 6.89%, with significant increases in component stocks such as Xinzhou Bang and Duofluor, and the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.64% of the total [3] - The Battery ETF has seen a notable increase in scale, growing by 1.89 billion yuan over the past two weeks, and a significant increase in shares by 12.15 billion over the past month, indicating strong capital inflow [3]