Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes [3][83]. - Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing. Monthly production has significantly declined, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. The weekly production rate has also gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6% in May, and weekly production dropping to 162,800 tons [4][85]. - Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases. As of early June, the consumption of silicon-manganese alloy in the five major steel products decreased by 1.04%. From January to May, production increased year - on - year while consumption decreased, leading to relatively high inventory. The three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4][85]. - Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to the lowest levels in the same period of previous years. In 2025, with large - scale new energy installations, the prices of traditional energy and electricity have decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area was adjusted downward in April. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. Although the port manganese ore inventory has recovered recently, the low inventory still deserves market attention [5][86]. Summary According to the Directory I. Silicon-manganese prices are under pressure, and the center of gravity is gradually shifting downward - From January to May 2025, domestic silicon-manganese prices generally showed a "high - then - low" trend. In the context of loose silicon-manganese production capacity, the price center of gravity gradually shifted downward. In mid - to late January, silicon-manganese prices rose significantly due to supply disturbances in manganese ore. After that, as coal prices fell and alloy costs decreased, the market's ability to support prices weakened. From March to May, affected by the US tariff increase and weak market expectations, commodities were under pressure, and silicon-manganese prices continued to decline [14]. II. Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing - From January to May 2025, all production areas experienced long - term losses, including Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, which have relatively low production costs. Alloy enterprises reduced production through measures such as maintenance. The weekly production rate of silicon-manganese gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6%, and weekly production dropped to 162,800 tons. Monthly production also decreased significantly, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of silicon-manganese alloy was 4.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Production was relatively high in March at 899,000 tons and then gradually decreased [17][20][32]. III. Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases - The downstream demand for silicon-manganese is mainly concentrated in steel consumption, especially in the five major steel products. As of early June, the demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.04%. The inventory of sample enterprises is higher than the same period last year. Although the number of days of available inventory for downstream steel enterprises is at a low level, the cumulative number of registered warehouse receipts + valid forecast warehouse receipts has reached over 1 million, and the three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [36][43][52]. IV. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward - The cost of silicon-manganese mainly depends on the prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to historically low levels. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. The inventory days of manganese ore for alloy enterprises remain relatively low. As of early June, the inventory days of manganese ore for alloy plants across the country have been reduced to 12.4 days. In May 2025, while manganese ore prices were at a low level, the electricity prices and coal prices in production areas also decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area decreased in April, causing a significant decline in silicon-manganese prices [54][55][76]. V. Conclusion - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes. In the current situation, although prices are relatively low, cautious operations are still required until there are significant decreases in production and inventory. Attention should be paid to changes in silicon-manganese production, inventory, and manganese ore supply [83][85][87].