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兴业证券张忆东:震荡是真正的“蓄电池”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-06 08:48
Core Viewpoint - The current market fluctuations are not merely driven by capital but represent a systematic recovery of confidence, reflecting the gradual formation of a positive feedback mechanism in China's economy and policies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing market trend is characterized as a long-cycle market, with fluctuations serving as a "battery" for the market [1] - The market behavior is likened to a "little rabbit" style, where it makes progress in jumps and pauses but continues to move forward [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - For investors, understanding the overall direction, maintaining composure, and selecting the right assets are deemed more important than chasing short-term market rhythms [1]
张忆东:震荡是真正的“蓄电池”
Core Viewpoint - The current market fluctuations are not merely driven by capital but represent a systematic recovery of confidence, reflecting the gradual formation of a positive feedback mechanism between the Chinese economy and policy [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "bunny-style" trend, characterized by small jumps and pauses, but consistently moving forward [1][6]. - Investors are advised to focus on long-term direction and asset selection rather than chasing short-term market rhythms [1][6]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Confidence - The first factor is the reversal of pessimistic expectations regarding the transition of China's economic growth drivers, with the real estate market stabilizing and rental yields in core cities surpassing risk-free returns [2][3]. - The second factor is collective breakthroughs in technology, including advancements in AI, 6G, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have bolstered confidence in China's technological progress [2][3]. - The third factor is the clear support for the private economy through policies like the Private Economy Promotion Law, which is reshaping investor confidence [2][3]. Group 3: Capital Market and Economic Interaction - The interplay between capital markets and the economy is creating a virtuous cycle, with institutional investors increasingly focusing on industry logic and company quality, leading to a more stable and sustainable market [4][5]. - The gradual transfer of household savings to capital markets is viewed as a moderate process, not a sudden shift, and should not be overly interpreted as a trigger for short-term market movements [4][5]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Investment Strategy - Market fluctuations are seen as a "battery" that accumulates energy for future growth, and appropriate corrections can help digest bubbles and prepare for the next upward movement [5][6]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain patience during market volatility and focus on fundamental signals such as industry competition and continuous improvement in corporate profitability [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The best companies in China are expected to thrive, with industry concentration likely to increase due to policy support and market competition [5][6]. - The focus should be on how companies can leverage capital markets for better development and industry integration, rather than expecting immediate large-scale demand stimulation [5][6].