投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-26 原油震荡等待局势明朗，化⼯端本⾝⽭ 盾较⼩横盘整理 随着美伊谈判的临近，原油和金融市场严阵以待，权衡谈判达成的可 能性。美伊下一轮谈判定于周四在日内瓦举行，为形成威慑力，美国已下 令在中东展开2003年第二次海湾战争以来规模最大的军事集结，包括部署 两艘航空母舰。另一个对原油市场至关重要的事件是于周末举行的OPEC+ 会议，该组织在2026年一季度暂停了增产计划，二季度是否恢复增产、增 产幅度如何，都会对原油市场带来影响。与此同时，斯洛伐克表示，从俄 罗斯运送原油经过乌克兰的友谊管道仍处于关停状态。（以上信息来自彭 博终端） 板块逻辑： 原油等待美伊谈判进展，化工进入震荡格局。从化工品各个链条基本 面看，聚酯链条供需较为健康，聚烯烃依旧有较大的供应压力，尤其是P E。纯苯-苯乙烯、氯碱则以震荡为主。聚酯原料普遍因为3-5月份的春季 检修而去库，因为2025年下半年较长时间的亏损，PTA产业链没有因为微 利就加大开工。烯烃的弱势主要在于全球都维持较高产能增速，增速高于 过去五年的均值，当前PE的周产量同比攀升到 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The spot gold price ended a two-day rise, closing down 0.74% at $5022.87 per ounce after a brief spike following the release of U.S. retail sales data [1][6] - The gold market opened at $5057.6 per ounce, reached a high of $5077.2, and then fell to a low of $4986.8 before closing at $5024.5, indicating ongoing volatility [2][7] - Resistance levels for gold are noted at $5100-$5350, while support levels are at $5000-$4950 [8] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil opened at $64.45 per barrel, dipped to a low of $63.66, and closed down 0.4% at $64.19, showing a mixed trading pattern [1][9] - The Brent crude oil price fell by 0.27%, closing at $68.53 per barrel, reflecting a similar trend in the oil market [1] - The oil market is expected to test resistance levels between $64.8-$65.6, with support levels at $63.7-$63.0 [9] Group 3: Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25289.68, reached a high of $25616.6, and closed at $25166.83, indicating fluctuations within the trading session [4][10] - The index is experiencing pressure from upper moving averages, with resistance levels identified at $25357-$25600 and support levels at $25100-$25000 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market has shown significant resilience amid recent market volatility, with a net inflow of nearly 90 billion yuan on February 5, indicating strong investor interest despite broader market declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 5, the A-share market opened lower due to declines in overseas technology stocks and precious metals, but the stock ETF market experienced a net inflow of 88.99 billion yuan [2]. - The total scale of all stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 3.9 trillion yuan as of February 5 [2]. - The net inflow for A-share stock ETFs specifically was 34.95 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: ETF Inflows and Outflows - The leading inflows were observed in Hong Kong stock ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with net inflows of 53.2 billion yuan and 19.47 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - Conversely, bond ETFs experienced a net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan [2]. - Notably, ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index saw a net inflow of 29.72 billion yuan, while those tracking the CSI 500 Index had a net outflow of 31.39 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Fund Company Performance - Major fund companies such as Huaxia, Huatai-PB, and E Fund saw net inflows of 31.8 billion yuan, 28.5 billion yuan, and 28.2 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - In contrast, Southern and Jiashi funds experienced net outflows of 28.5 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan [2]. Group 4: Specific ETF Performance - E Fund's ETFs reached a total scale of 651.95 billion yuan, with significant inflows in various ETFs, including 9.2 billion yuan for the China Internet ETF and 3.6 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF [3]. - Huaxia Fund's A500 ETF and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF also saw substantial inflows of 11.99 billion yuan and 6.5 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, with risks that have been accelerating in the short term, particularly in cyclical sectors like metals [5]. - Despite recent adjustments in the technology sector, the overall fundamental outlook remains robust, suggesting limited downside potential [5]. - Consumer sectors may present opportunities for recovery, especially with upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the National People's Congress [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upward space is limited. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4] - For other commodities: A shares adjusted downward with low trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to recover tomorrow; gold is expected to continue fluctuating, so participation should be cautious; iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support and a bearish outlook; glass has a bullish tendency with minor daily adjustments; methanol may fluctuate slightly and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers; pulp is in a range - bound trend due to slow domestic consumption recovery [7][10][11][14][17][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **External Events**: Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government production - cut plan, with some 2026 output quotas potentially cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025. This has led to a rise in export quotes, a limit - up in the A - share coal sector, and a stronger coking coal futures market [3] - **Domestic Situation**: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines are on holiday, reducing supply. However, Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu Port remain high. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, with fundamental improvements [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Coking coal futures are oscillating between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with 1300 yuan being a strong resistance level. Trading volume did not increase during recent rallies, and market activity is low due to the approaching Spring Festival [3] A Shares - The overall A - share market adjusted downward with low trading volume today. Technically, the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the end, and it is expected to recover tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold prices have continued to decline significantly, and fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still weak. Technically, it has broken through the support platform, and the outlook is bearish [11][12] Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side optimization. Technically, it adjusted today, but the bullish view remains [14][15] Methanol - Methanol at ports may fluctuate slightly due to expected import reduction. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption progress, port inventory changes, and coal price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand recovers [17] Pulp - Since the end of last year, the supply - demand pattern of pulp has improved, driving prices to bottom out. However, the slow recovery of domestic terminal consumption restricts price increases, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be sufficient, but logistics congestion may cause the selling pressure on Brazilian soybean discounts to be postponed. The production of Argentine soybeans may be affected by dry conditions, but rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] - The demand for soymeal shows a seasonal decline. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. The far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control. [10] - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, and the current inventory is still at a high level. The number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] - In the short term, the unilateral price of soymeal is expected to have limited rebound and will maintain a weak and volatile trend later. The domestic supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is expected to show a reverse spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Basis Data - On January 30th, the basis of 43% soymeal spot in Dalian was 453, up 15; in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang it was 373, up 15; in Tianjin it was 413, up 35; in Dongguan it was 353, up 35; in Zhanjiang it was 383, up 35; in Fangcheng it was 373. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 105, down 42. [4] - M3 - M2 was 294, unchanged; RM5 - 9 was - 19, down 11. [4] b. Inventory Data - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] c. International Supply Data - As of January 24th, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 6.6%, up 2.3% from last week and 3.2% faster than the same period last year. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian soybeans is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season to reach 178 million tons. [10] - As of January 21st, the proportion of good - rated soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 38% (last week's value was 61%, last year's same - period value was 26%), and rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] d. Domestic Demand Data - The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. Under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control, the far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink. The pre - holiday procurement of soymeal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the delivery performance is good. [10]

- The report mentions a **cycle analysis model**, which is used to track market trends and identify potential stabilization signals. The model suggests that the market may have reached a small-scale stabilization point, indicating a shift into a short-term oscillation phase with a clearer oscillation range[2][7] - A **trend model** is also referenced, which remains in a bullish zone on a larger scale. This model supports the inference that the market's short-term movements are constrained within a two-way oscillation pattern[2][7] - The **industry rotation model** is highlighted, showing dispersed signals across various sectors. It identifies opportunities in low-valuation sectors like banking, adjusted sectors like media, and sectors that have been consolidating, such as communication and growth-oriented industries. This model suggests a balanced allocation strategy for the current market environment[7] - The **four-wheel drive industry model** is presented, which provides specific signals for sector opportunities. For example, it identifies potential opportunities in sectors like photovoltaic leaders, communication, and banking, as well as trading opportunities in growth-oriented sectors and media. The model uses signal types such as "potential opportunity" and "trading opportunity" to guide sector allocation[13]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder, each having different implications for monetary policy and market stability [1] Group 1: Candidates and Their Implications - Kevin Hassett has been a favored candidate for a long time, closely aligned with Trump's economic policies, which may lead to aggressive monetary policy stances [1] - Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Governor, is also in the running, but his approach may not align as closely with Trump's preferences [1] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as a moderate rate cutter, potentially more acceptable to various stakeholders, and could be a compromise choice for Trump [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Sun Lijian from Fudan University warns that sacrificing the independence of the Federal Reserve for political gains could have long-term negative consequences for the U.S. economy [1] - Zhang Jianping from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation notes that Hassett's economic policy thinking has been significantly influenced by Trump since the first term [1] - Scholar Chu Yin suggests that while Hassett may be Trump's preferred choice, it could lead to significant market volatility, indicating that a more stable approach may be necessary [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.31% at 4126.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.60 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.82% to 3349.14 points [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 40 trillion, reaching 39.872 billion, an increase of 2.881 billion from the previous day, setting a new historical record for trading volume [3] Market Volatility - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of 4190 points in the morning before dropping to a low of 4109 points, with an intraday fluctuation of 90 points, representing a 2% change [4] - The large trading volume of 3.93 trillion is noteworthy, and its sustainability is questioned, as historical instances of trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion have often preceded market peaks [5][6] Regulatory Impact - The market's sharp fluctuations were triggered by regulatory signals from management, specifically the announcement of new financing rules that raised the margin requirement from 80% to 100% [4] - This measure is seen as a conventional tool for counter-cyclical regulation, aimed at cooling down the currently heated market, where the scale of financing has accumulated to approximately 2.6 trillion [4] Market Sentiment - Despite the significant fluctuations, the market's overall sentiment remains strong, with a median increase of 0.13% among individual stocks, indicating that the market is not easily cooled down by a single policy signal [6] - The current market dynamics serve as a test for the quality of individual stocks and investment logic, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies during periods of high volatility [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Market Overview - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations next week due to technical indicators showing a high strength index and historical calendar effects indicating poor performance of major indices in the latter half of January [1][2]. Quantitative Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.60, higher than the previous week's 0.34, indicating current market liquidity is 0.60 standard deviations above the average level of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.64 from 0.88, suggesting increased investor optimism regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.41% and 2.24%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity, positioned at the 79.01% and 87.08% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The official manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, surpassing the previous value of 49.2 and aligning with the consensus forecast of 50.05 [2]. - The December CPI year-on-year was 0.8%, higher than the previous value of 0.7% and the consensus forecast of 0.75% [2]. - The PPI year-on-year was -1.9%, better than the previous -2.2% and the consensus forecast of -2% [2]. Market Performance - The SSE 50 Index rose by 3.4%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.79%, the CSI 500 Index surged by 7.92%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 3.89% during the week of January 5-9, 2026 [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 23.2 times, positioned at the 81.9% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding - The crowding degree for high-growth factors has increased, with small-cap factors at 0.37, low-valuation factors at -0.57, high-profitability factors at 0.63, and high-profit growth factors at 1.09 [3]. Industry Crowding - The industries with relatively high crowding degrees include telecommunications, comprehensive sectors, non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and electronics, with significant increases noted in the crowding degrees of defense and military as well as comprehensive sectors [4].