仓位上，过节持仓没有量化，看你个人，上周五早盘也讲了。大方向没问题，10月有规划会议，降息，对于手里的，看懂逻辑，守好自己的一亩三分地， 等待发芽。到时候科技后排，产业链延伸涨起来之后。记得随走随撤，一步步来。具体大的节奏，风格上有变换，咱们再根据行情做配置就行。继续多唠 叨一句，继续区分好，中大市值趋势推动资金，和小盘股的量化和游资手法的不同。 针对节前2天，节后2天，看图，大概率还是走震荡节奏。对于方向，我们其实很清晰，未来必然走向上。毕竟总队给的方向也是，所以调整的空间有限。 趋势必然是看多做多。所以短线从那篇关键文章就说了。大跌要敢于做布局。短期震荡就是为了更好的筹码交换。必然2万多亿的市场，不会冷下来。着 眼好后期即可。 目前震荡24天了。市场想要摆脱震荡，从技术形态讲，必然要突破上面的趋势，在这个信号没出来前，就继续按照震荡应对。而下方的支撑，3800点，和 60日线在上靠慢慢会形成共振。所以靠近这俩区间，就没什么问题【靠近3700点的概率比较小】中期趋势是具有延续性的，不会轻易掉头，牛市不要频繁 猜顶，不要每次一跌就怀疑，一看有利好消息就追涨，因为多数情况是反着来的。目前指数跌破20日均线。在线 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple public fund institutions are adjusting their investment portfolios in response to the changing market environment, with a focus on balancing asset allocation between equity and fixed-income funds [1][2][6]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - The "招商灵活进取" fund has significantly reduced its allocation to mixed funds and increased its investment in cross-border fixed-income QDII funds, with these new QDII funds accounting for approximately 20% of the portfolio [2]. - The "中欧超级股票全明星" fund has increased its exposure to Hong Kong internet theme products and medical theme funds, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3]. - The "博时价值精选" fund has replaced underperforming funds with higher-quality balanced funds to enhance portfolio stability [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The frequent "发车" (launch) actions by various investment advisory products are seen as a positive market signal, indicating active management in response to market conditions [4]. - Year-to-date returns for several equity advisory products have been strong, with "中欧超级股票全明星" achieving a return of 35.66%, outperforming its benchmark by approximately 6 percentage points [5]. - Despite short-term market volatility, long-term prospects for the A-share market remain positive, supported by low interest rates, long-term capital inflows, and favorable policies [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment advisors recommend maintaining a balanced portfolio and avoiding impulsive trading in hot sectors, as the market is currently in a consolidation phase [6][7]. - The technology sector, while previously a leading investment theme, is experiencing increased volatility, suggesting a need for careful selection of investments based on supply-demand dynamics and reasonable valuations [6].

Group 1 - Multiple public fund institutions have initiated a new round of portfolio adjustments to respond to the changing market environment, with some reducing equity fund positions and increasing allocations to fixed-income funds [1][2] - The adjustments include a significant reduction in mixed fund positions and an increase in cross-border fixed-income QDII funds, with specific funds accounting for approximately 20% of the portfolio [1] - The market sentiment remains optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the equity market despite short-term fluctuations, encouraging a balanced asset allocation approach [1][3] Group 2 - The "launch" function of investment advisory products has been frequently utilized, indicating a potentially positive market signal as multiple products announce new plans [2][3] - Year-to-date returns for several equity advisory products have been strong, with notable performances exceeding benchmarks, such as the China Europe Super Stock All-Star achieving a return of 35.66% [3] - The current market is experiencing significant volatility, with a recommendation against chasing hot sectors, suggesting a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio and flexible asset allocation [4][5]

Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The market style factors track the performance and volatility of different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth, to identify prevailing market trends and shifts in investor preferences [12][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Size Style**: Measure the relative performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks - **Value-Growth Style**: Measure the relative performance of value-oriented stocks versus growth-oriented stocks - **Volatility Metrics**: Calculate the volatility of each style to assess the stability of the trend - **Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the dominant market style and its stability, which can guide portfolio allocation strategies [12][14] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the dispersion and concentration of returns across industries and stocks to understand market breadth and sector rotation [12][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Measure the spread of excess returns across industry indices - **Sector Rotation Speed**: Quantify the rate at which different sectors outperform or underperform - **Stock Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of total market turnover contributed by the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: These factors help identify whether the market is driven by a few sectors or stocks, or if performance is more evenly distributed [12][14] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors measure the overall activity and liquidity in the market, including volatility and turnover rates, to gauge investor participation and sentiment [13][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Market Volatility**: Calculate the standard deviation of market returns over a specific period - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the trading volume relative to the total market capitalization - **Evaluation**: These factors are useful for assessing market sentiment and liquidity conditions, which are critical for timing and risk management [13][14] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors track trends, momentum, and liquidity in commodity markets to identify opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [24][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Measure the directional movement in commodity prices for sectors like metals, energy, and agriculture - **Basis Momentum**: Calculate the change in the basis (spot price minus futures price) over time - **Volatility**: Assess the price fluctuations in commodity indices - **Liquidity**: Measure the trading volume and bid-ask spread in commodity markets - **Evaluation**: These factors provide a comprehensive view of commodity market dynamics, aiding in asset allocation and hedging strategies [24][30] 5. Factor Name: Option Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze implied volatility and skewness in option markets to infer market expectations and risk sentiment [33][34] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Measure the market's expectation of future volatility for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 1000 - **Option Skewness**: Calculate the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money calls and puts to assess directional bias - **Evaluation**: These factors are valuable for understanding market sentiment and hedging demand, especially during periods of uncertainty [33][34] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors evaluate the valuation and liquidity of convertible bonds to identify market trends and investment opportunities [36][39] - **Construction Process**: - **Conversion Premium**: Measure the difference between the market price of the bond and its conversion value - **Low Premium Proportion**: Calculate the proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums - **Market Liquidity**: Assess the trading volume and turnover in the convertible bond market - **Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the attractiveness and liquidity of convertible bonds, which are important for fixed-income and hybrid strategies [36][39] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Market Style Factors - **Size Style**: Small-cap outperformed large-cap during the week [12][14] - **Value-Growth Style**: Growth stocks outperformed value stocks during the week [12][14] - **Volatility**: Size style volatility decreased, while value-growth style volatility increased [12][14] 2. Market Structure Factors - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Remained stable compared to the previous week [12][14] - **Sector Rotation Speed**: Decreased compared to the previous week [12][14] - **Stock Concentration**: Top 100 stocks and top 5 industries maintained their turnover proportions [12][14] 3. Market Activity Factors - **Market Volatility**: Slightly decreased during the week [13][14] - **Turnover Rate**: Remained at a high level over the past year [13][14] 4. Commodity Market Factors - **Trend Strength**: Increased for metals and precious metals, decreased for energy commodities [24][30] - **Basis Momentum**: Declined across all commodity sectors [24][30] - **Volatility**: Increased slightly across all commodity sectors [24][30] - **Liquidity**: Showed mixed performance across different sectors [24][30] 5. Option Market Factors - **Implied Volatility**: SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remained in a range-bound state [33][34] - **Option Skewness**: Call skewness decreased, indicating reduced bullish sentiment [33][34] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Conversion Premium**: Stable for bonds priced around par value [36][39] - **Low Premium Proportion**: Increased significantly, indicating rising demand for low-premium bonds [36][39] - **Market Liquidity**: Maintained healthy trading levels [36][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as the long holiday approaches, the market is expected to continue its oscillating and structural trends, with a focus on growth styles supported by industry trends and performance outlooks [2][5] - The macro strategy team suggests that the market may maintain a balanced approach, recommending investments in large-cap indices and the ChiNext, while high-risk investors should consider opportunities in technology, new energy, and Hang Seng Technology sectors [2][5] Group 2 - In the stock market, the small-cap style is favored, and the growth style is showing stronger performance, while the volatility of small-cap styles has decreased and the volatility of growth styles has increased [7] - The market's trading concentration remains stable, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries maintaining their share of total trading volume [7][8] - Market activity has seen a slight decrease in volatility, while turnover rates remain at a high level compared to the past year [8] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has increased, while the trend strength of energy and chemical sectors has decreased [19] - All sectors have experienced a slight increase in volatility, and liquidity performance has shown divergence across different sectors [19] Group 4 - In the options market, both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 are in a state of oscillation, with a gradual decline in bullish option skew, indicating a lack of confidence for further upward movement in the market [22] Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight adjustment, with a notable increase in the proportion of low conversion premium bonds, indicating a trend of oscillation and elevation [24]

Market Overview - On September 23, the A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [1][2] - Despite a late rally in the three major indices, over 4,200 stocks in the market declined [2] Market Adjustment Reasons - The recent market decline is attributed to technical demand and profit-taking pressure rather than substantial negative news [3] - Historical patterns indicate that after the last four Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market typically undergoes a downward adjustment before entering a new upward trend, suggesting a similar pattern may be occurring now [3] Analysis from Shenwan Hongyuan - Shenwan Hongyuan's report indicates that the A-share market has not yet escaped a minor adjustment phase, highlighting three main issues: 1. Insufficient cost-performance ratio, with short-term indicators at high levels and the ChiNext's profitability effect relative to the CSI 300 at a low point [4] 2. Expectations have largely been re-anchored, with a return to long, medium, and short-term economic conditions and cost-performance perspectives [5] 3. The structural main line for further index increases remains unclear, with the market returning to a volatile state while waiting for new catalysts [5] Pre-holiday Market Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, there is a noticeable shift towards risk aversion, with investors opting to secure profits [6] - Historical data shows a 60% probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the holiday, leading to a tendency for investors to realize gains to avoid uncertainties during the holiday [6] Short-term Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with declining trading volumes and a retreat from previous upward trends [10] - The technology sector is showing signs of differentiation, with recent gains driven by high-level positive news, indicating a lack of incremental capital in the market [10] Long-term Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain stable, with no significant downward trends anticipated, supported by long-term fundamentals such as interest rate conditions, policy support, and industry development [11] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the A-share market retains a favorable long-term valuation, particularly outside of a few technology sectors [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - **Rebar**: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - **Apples**: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - **Corn**: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - **Oils**: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]

- The report mentions the "Four-Driver Industry Rotation Model" as a key quantitative model for sector allocation recommendations[2][8] - The model suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, retail, agriculture, communication, machinery, power equipment, and computing based on its analysis[8][17] - The model's results are presented in a tabular format, highlighting potential opportunities in specific industries like non-ferrous metals and media, which are flagged as having "profit effect anomalies"[17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. The prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost - side oil price fluctuations, and seasonal demand changes [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts rose on Wednesday. Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten supply, the market will remain relatively well - supplied before October. High - sulfur fuel oil has support from downstream demand, and both FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, with attention to crude oil price fluctuations [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. Supply may decline slightly in September, and demand is supported by the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season. The price may rise further, with attention to oil price and demand [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA maintenance is ending. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support from increased polyester start - up and potential improvement in TA fundamentals [4] - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Although production is increasing, there are weather disturbances in some areas, and downstream tire start - up has rebounded. Social inventories are decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply. Domestic supply is at a low level due to maintenance, and overseas supply is relatively stable. The price is expected to enter a phase - bottom [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are expected to rebound slightly. Supply is high, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are affected by anti - dumping policies. However, the market is re - trading "anti - involution", and previous short positions are taking profits [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy and chemical products on September 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Market News - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels in the week ending September 12, due to record - low net imports and a jump in exports. Gasoline inventories decreased unexpectedly, and distillate inventories increased more than expected [11] - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis and basis rate trends of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][32][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., which helps to analyze the price differences between different delivery months [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, and the ratio between fuel oil and asphalt, providing insights into the relative price relationships between different products [58][63][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE, which are important factors affecting the supply of these products [67][68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with over a decade of research experience in the futures derivatives market [72] - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and media exposure [73] - **邸艺琳**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with awards and media contributions [74] - **彭海波**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with relevant academic background and industry experience [75]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with a rebound after a pullback, indicating volatility and rapid rotation of market hotspots [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.98 trillion, a decrease of 140.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.27% [1] Market Dynamics - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was roughly equal, reflecting a balanced sentiment among investors [1]