12月19日，和讯投顾陈炜表示，今天市场终于迎来了全面普涨，在昨日行情基础上成功收获三连阳。这 时候大家肯定都在想，市场是不是就此稳了呢？从今天整体情况来看，大家在市场里的体验感相当不 错，市场确实更偏向于稳定了。为啥这么说呢？一方面，宏观层面利好消息不少。大家都知道，老美降 息预期再度抬升，而日本加息落地，且力度低于预期。这么一来，整个市场的宏观环境偏暖。从市场格 局来看，三连阳之后指数重新回到了震荡区间，也就是说指数进入了调整后的震荡阶段。接下来一段时 间，市场没有更大的利空消息，进入利空真空期，大概率会维持震荡节奏，开启新阶段。 这其实是一次市场的再平衡。大家注意，前期涨幅较高的科技股等主线板块，今天表现偏弱，前期炒过 的板块基本维持震荡或滞涨格局。这一点从双创指数走势偏弱就能得到佐证。而权a等权指数今天涨幅 较好，低位个股的普涨表明市场正在进行再度平衡，高位板块暂时停下脚步，低位超跌板块开始向上修 复。市场进入这样的阶段，要想行情从当前位置形成真正的底部或者持续大涨，或许需要有新的主线出 现。目前来看，市场仍处于震荡酝酿过程中。 不过，从今天的市场表现来看，主线性并不清晰。虽说今天主要拉升的是大消费类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from Wind's API to new data solutions, highlighting the challenges and opportunities this change presents for data-driven investment analysis. Group 1: API Transition - Wind's API trial policy is being discontinued, prompting the need for the company to seek alternative API solutions for data analysis [4][6]. - The transition involves not only migrating existing processes but also potentially rewriting code to improve structure and functionality [7][11]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, supported by 9 votes to 3, indicates a shift towards a more hawkish stance in the future, which may hinder further rate cuts [15][16]. - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn, with the Wind Micro Index dropping by 2.88% and a cumulative decline of 4.95% this month, contrasting with a slight increase in the CSI 300 [17][18]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Most sectors are facing declines, with notable drops in communication equipment and technology stocks, while only the banking sector shows some resilience [18][19]. - The overall market sentiment is low, with a decrease in premium rates for previously high-demand ETFs, indicating a cautious approach among investors as year-end approaches [20].

报告导读： 从技术面来看，情绪模型信号再次回落；均线强弱指数依旧处于历史50%分位 点左右，市场趋势还有待观察。结合以上几点，我们认为，市场在短期内依旧会维持震 荡。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 风险提示： 市场系统性风险、海外市场波动风险、模型误设风险。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251205）短期内依旧会维持震荡 ；报告日期：2025.12.07 报告作者： 郑雅斌（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040105 曹君豪(分析师)，登记编号：S0880525040094 重要提醒 下周（20251208-20251212，后文同）市场观点：短期内依旧会维持震荡。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深 ...

当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常 态，资源/传统制造业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜力的被低估的方向。去年"9.24行情"以来，两轮市场 水位的整体抬升都伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私 募主观多头产品新发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔 除两轮融资的大幅上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是 量化驱动的微盘、保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新药。 其他时间市场大多横盘震荡，实现上涨的板块仅有微盘指数、银行、有色和医药 1）剔除两轮融资大幅上升的阶段，市场基本维持震荡轮动的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Instead, it offers investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks. [2] - The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield facing resistance around 1.8%. [2] - Precious metals are expected to find support at certain levels, with a suggestion to buy on dips. [2] - Different commodities in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors have different price trends and corresponding investment strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it is recommended to wait and see. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged. [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.9 - 116.7, and an interval operation strategy is recommended. [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to find support around $4000 (925 yuan). A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested. [2] - **Silver**: It follows the trend of gold and is expected to find support around $49 (11,800 yuan). A light - position trial long strategy on dips is recommended. [2] Black Commodities - **Steel**: The volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to increase, and the spread between them is expected to widen. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should respectively focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200. [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1100 - 1200. [2] - **Coke**: It is also viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1600 - 1700. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 85,500 - 87,500. [2] - **Aluminum**: Different aluminum - related contracts have different expected price ranges. Some may have short - term downward space. [2] - **Zinc**: Supported by supply reduction expectations, with a reference range of 22,200 - 22,800, and long positions should be held. [2] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong, and long positions should be held. [2] Energy - Chemical Commodities - **PX**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [2] - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. A rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 is recommended. [2] - **Short - fiber**: Similar to PTA, with a focus on reducing processing fees on rallies. [2] - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose, and it follows the cost - end trend. [2] - **Ethanol**: There is short - term rigid demand support, but supply is high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [2] - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] - **Styrene**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] - **LLDPE**: The price changes little, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **PP**: Due to unexpected maintenance, the downward space is limited, and short - position stop - profit is recommended. [2] - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing MTO in the 05 contract. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and a bearish strategy is recommended. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. [2] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by overseas raw materials, the price is rising, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to face pressure at the upper level, and a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with attention to the pressure around 10,800. [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000. [2] - **Pig**: There are signs of stabilization in the spot market, and a 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy should be held. [2] - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200. [2] - **Edible Oils**: The price is rising, and the P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. [2] - **Sugar**: Under the pressure of production increase, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Cotton**: With a global bumper harvest and weak domestic downstream trading, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Egg**: The supply is still loose, and short - position stop - profit should be gradually carried out on dips for the 2512 contract. [2] - **Apple**: It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short term. [2] - **Jujube**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 9000. [2]

Wall Street took a sharp punch to the gut on Monday as major indices tumbled in midday trading, with the Dow Jones down roughly 400 points and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunging nearly 2 percent. The broa... ...

【11月17日民生加银基金：市场或进入震荡阶段，主导投资机会待年底】11月17日，民生加银基金表 示，从后续市场结构看，煤炭、有色板块表现较好。关税因素渐趋平淡后，股票市场进入业绩、事件、 政策的真空期，缺乏决定方向的催化剂。市场可能正进入震荡阶段，主导型投资机会需等到年底，观察 新的改善或变化。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

人民财讯11月17日电，民生加银基金认为，后续市场结构上看，煤炭、有色板块表现相对较好，在关税 因素逐步平淡后，股票市场进入一段时间的业绩、事件、政策的真空期，市场缺少决定方向的催化剂， 因此，市场可能正进入一段时间的震荡阶段，主导型的投资机会须等待年底，观察新的改善或变化。 ...

Market Overview - The market is expected to continue fluctuating around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index, with a notable acceleration in style and sector rotation [2][5] - The recommendation is to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on opportunities in technology, new energy, and electricity sectors during the fluctuations [2][5] Stock Market Factors - The market style has shifted towards small-cap stocks, with a preference for value over growth [7] - The volatility of both small-cap and value-growth styles has decreased [7] - There has been an increase in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, along with a rise in the speed of sector rotation and the proportion of rising constituent stocks [7] Market Activity - Market volatility and turnover rates have both declined [8] Commodity Market Factors - The trend strength in the agricultural products sector has decreased, while other sectors have shown little change [19] - Basis momentum has increased across all sectors, with a decline in volatility for all but the agricultural products sector [19] - Liquidity has decreased across all sectors [19] Options Market - Implied volatility levels for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 have gradually decreased, while the ratio of put to call option open interest has increased [22] - There is a notable increase in the skew of both put and call options for the SSE 50, indicating uncertainty in market direction and dominant style [22] Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market has performed well, with a continued upward trend [24] - The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan has significantly increased, nearing the 90th percentile of the past year [24] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has remained stable, with weekly trading volume showing a continuous recovery [24]

- The report tracks various market factors, including stock market, commodity market, options market, and convertible bond market, focusing on their weekly performance and trends[1][3][12] - **Stock Market Factors**: The report highlights the following: - **Market Style**: Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Both small-cap and value-growth style volatilities decreased[12][14] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and industry rotation speed increased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks also increased, while the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries decreased[12][14] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate declined[13][14] - **Commodity Market Factors**: Key observations include: - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of agricultural products decreased, while other sectors showed minimal changes[24][31] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased across all sectors[24][31] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased across all sectors except agricultural products[24][31] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined across all sectors[24][31] - **Options Market Factors**: The implied volatility levels of SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options decreased. However, the put-call open interest ratio increased. Additionally, the skewness of both put and call options for SSE 50 rose significantly[35] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: The convertible bond market performed well, with the following trends: - The premium rate of bonds priced around 100 yuan increased significantly, nearing the 90th percentile of the past year[37] - The premium rate of pure debt bonds also slightly increased, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds remained stable[37] - Weekly trading volume continued to recover[37]