Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The records discuss the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, on global oil prices and market sentiment. The focus is on various indices including the Shanghai Composite Index, Growth Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index, as well as sectors such as energy, banking, and agriculture. Key Points and Arguments Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a peak at $120 per barrel and ongoing volatility around $100, which continues to suppress global risk appetite [1][2][3] Market Indices Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has entered a range-bound phase since January 14, 2026, with adjustments expected to continue until March 27, 2026 [1][2] - The Growth Index (CSI 500/1000) has shown signs of a top divergence and is expected to undergo an ABC wave structure adjustment until late April 2026 [1][2][3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is supported near the 500-day moving average but requires confirmation of a second bottom before a potential V-shaped recovery [1][3] Sector Performance and Investment Strategy - Energy-related sectors, both traditional (coal, utilities) and new (wind, solar, storage), are benefiting from geopolitical tensions, with new energy stocks showing significant rebound potential [1][3][4] - Defensive sectors such as banking and agriculture are highlighted for their stability and potential for returns, with banks expected to have a 5%-8% rebound space [1][9] - The market is currently characterized by a broad decline, with two-thirds of sectors experiencing downturns, indicating a general risk aversion [4][5] Technical Signals and Risks - Warning signals have emerged in sectors like semiconductor and non-ferrous metals, with weekly MACD top divergence indicating potential downturns [4][5] - The overall market is in a consolidation phase, with expectations of continued adjustments in the Growth Index, which may take longer to stabilize [5][6] Investment Focus Areas - The focus is on new and traditional energy sectors, with a particular emphasis on battery technology and power generation [9][10] - The securities sector is viewed as undervalued with high potential returns, suggesting a hold strategy rather than increasing positions [9][10] - Agricultural and transportation sectors are gaining attention due to their defensive characteristics and low current valuations [9][10] Market Style and Sector Rotation - The prevailing market style emphasizes stability, with a preference for sectors that have shown less volatility and consistent performance [10][11] - Key sectors to watch include chemicals, coal, telecommunications, and public utilities, aligning with the overall risk-averse sentiment [10][12] ETF and Thematic Momentum - Current market momentum is concentrated in sectors such as banking, infrastructure, and energy, with ETFs reflecting similar trends [11][12] - Thematic investments are focused on defensive, cash-generating sectors, indicating a cautious approach amidst market volatility [11][12] Other Important Insights - The market is expected to remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, with any significant news likely to impact market stability [2][3] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals while being cautious of overexposure to high-risk areas [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is waiting for the progress of the US - Iran negotiation, and the chemical industry has entered an oscillatory pattern. The supply - demand of the polyester chain is relatively healthy, while polyolefins, especially PE, still face significant supply pressure. Pure benzene - styrene and chlor - alkali are mainly in an oscillatory state. Due to spring maintenance from March to May, polyester raw materials are destocking. The weakness of olefins is mainly due to the high global production capacity growth rate. The cost fluctuations and small supply - demand contradictions in the chemical industry make it difficult to have a trending market, and investors are advised to conduct short - term or hedging operations [2]. - The crude oil market continues to have high volatility, and chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: US crude oil accumulates inventory on a weekly basis, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to cause disturbances. The market is waiting for the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The supply - demand is in an oversupply situation in the short - term, and it is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Main Logic**: The US crude oil inventory increased significantly last week, and gasoline inventory decreased. The refinery operating rate declined, which is consistent with the previous API data. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The current geopolitical premium is fermenting, and the signal for the end of the rebound depends on the falsification of Iranian supply concerns or the confirmation of OPEC+'s production increase [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the medium - long - term valuation is expected to decline, showing an oscillatory trend [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: With the relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela and the increase in light distillate exports, the long - term supply of asphalt raw materials is abundant. The market focuses on the US - Iran negotiation, and the asphalt cracking spread has significantly declined. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply - demand of asphalt is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt futures price is at a relatively high valuation compared to other products [11]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium, and it is expected to oscillate. The increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and the short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market is highly concerned about the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The increase in Venezuelan heavy oil supply is expected to put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The current high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. If the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the long - term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced [11]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the replacement of green fuels and high - sulfur fuel oil, its current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. The decrease in fuel oil exports from Brazil, Kuwait, and Nigeria in February has alleviated the oversupply expectation. It has strong main - product attributes. Although it faces some negative factors, its low valuation makes it likely to follow the change of crude oil [13]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost still has support, and the price is in high - level consolidation. In the short - term, it oscillates under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. In the medium - term, the logic of buying at low prices remains, and the PX05 - 09 spread can be positively arbitraged at low prices. The PXN is expected to be consolidated within the range of [300, 330] US dollars per ton [15]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are in high - level consolidation, and there is still some support for chemical products. After the holiday, the PX price increased significantly on the first trading day and then slightly declined. The overall supply - demand has not changed much. With the impact of the maintenance season, the supply pressure is expected to be relieved [15]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost and affected by tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the support for the TA05 - 09 spread is enhanced. It is advisable to pay attention to the positive arbitrage position, and the support around 5250 yuan per ton is relatively strong [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is significant, and the price has回调. During the Spring Festival, the inventory accumulated significantly, but the wharf inventory pressure is general, and the basis decline pressure is controllable. The tariff policy has caused concerns about rush - exports, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of the polyester and terminal industries [17]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: It is affected by crude oil and commodity sentiment and oscillates. The fundamentals in Q1 are improved compared to Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large [18][19]. - **Main Logic**: Before the holiday, the downstream replenishment of pure benzene basically ended, and the trading became weak. After the holiday, it rose to make up for the gap. The fundamentals are in a transition period, and there are differences in the market's judgment of the Q2 fundamentals. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption of downstream production after the holiday [19]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Affected by seasonal inventory accumulation and crude oil fluctuations, it oscillates. Although the height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February is adjusted, the improvement of the overseas situation weakens the support [20]. - **Main Logic**: Before the holiday, the styrene price declined due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the restart of domestic and overseas devices. After the holiday, it rose to make up for the gap. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory accumulation during the holiday, the restart of some devices, and the resumption of downstream production [20]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pressure limits the price rebound. In the medium - term, it has a weak recovery, and the lower support is enhanced. It is expected to be in the range of [3700 - 4050] yuan per ton in the short - term [22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price increased significantly during the Spring Festival, providing some cost support, but the supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected due to the delay of some ships, the port inventory is still at a high level. After March, the supply - demand pattern will improve, and the import volume will decrease, enhancing the price support [23]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The downstream starts slowly, and the raw material end oscillates. The short - fiber price follows the upstream and oscillates in the short - term, and the support for the processing fee is enhanced [25]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw material prices are in high - level consolidation, providing cost support. The cancellation of US tariffs is beneficial to the export of terminal textile and clothing. The downstream starts slowly, and the raw material end oscillates [25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost end still has support. The absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation, and the support for the processing fee is enhanced. It is advisable to temporarily exit the position of buying PR and shorting TA [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures oscillate and decline, and the polyester bottle - chip price follows the weak oscillation. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market has recovered, and it is expected to continue to follow the raw material cost fluctuation [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas geopolitical disturbances continue, and it oscillates widely. It is expected to oscillate, and the Iranian situation is uncertain before it is settled [28][29]. - **Main Logic**: On February 25, 2026, methanol oscillated weakly. The inventory in the coastal market is high, and the Iranian methanol devices are expected to resume production in March, which has a negative impact on the market. However, geopolitical disturbances still need to be followed [29]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supported by demand and guided by policies, it oscillates and consolidates. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing performance, the order digestion of production enterprises, and the storage - releasing plan of storage enterprises [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On February 25, 2026, urea oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand increased simultaneously. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season. However, the spot price has reached the upper limit of the price guidance, and the market trading atmosphere is suppressed [30][31]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream gradually resumes production after the holiday, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Main Logic**: On February 24, the plastic futures opened higher and strengthened. The oil price oscillates due to the tense US - Iran geopolitical relationship. The commodity sentiment has improved after the holiday, and the capital has an impact on plastic. The mid - stream inventory pressure of plastic is not large, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support [35]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The spot support is limited, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [36]. - **Main Logic**: On February 24, PP futures oscillated higher. The oil price oscillates and rises due to the tense US - Iran geopolitical relationship. The commodity market sentiment has improved, which indirectly affects PP. The PDH profit of PP refineries is still under pressure, providing support for the price. The downstream of PP is in the off - peak to peak season transition, and the resumption progress needs to be observed. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support [36]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The powder profit is still under pressure, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [37]. - **Main Logic**: On February 25, PL futures oscillated. After the holiday, the PDH maintenance devices gradually resumed, and the market mainly followed the crude oil rebound. Enterprises mainly maintained stable prices, and the downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term powder profit is weak, and the downstream factories are expected to resume production around the Lantern Festival [37]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it may oscillate. It is expected to oscillate, and the geopolitical disturbances and maintenance expectations support the market sentiment, but the high inventory still suppresses the price [39]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. After the holiday, the upstream of PVC will carry out spring maintenance, but the "rush - export" will cool down, and the high inventory is difficult to destock smoothly. The upstream profit is poor, the downstream start - up is at a low level, the export order is weakening, and the cost is slightly decreasing [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate, and the high inventory suppresses the price, but the maintenance and downstream replenishment provide support [40][41]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. The upstream is in a loss state, and the maintenance expectation is strong. The downstream may replenish inventory at a low price, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved. The fundamentals are affected by factors such as alumina production reduction, demand support from new alumina projects, and the decline in caustic soda production [41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and plate index (energy index) are provided, including the latest values, change percentages, and historical price change data [282][284].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The spot gold price ended a two-day rise, closing down 0.74% at $5022.87 per ounce after a brief spike following the release of U.S. retail sales data [1][6] - The gold market opened at $5057.6 per ounce, reached a high of $5077.2, and then fell to a low of $4986.8 before closing at $5024.5, indicating ongoing volatility [2][7] - Resistance levels for gold are noted at $5100-$5350, while support levels are at $5000-$4950 [8] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil opened at $64.45 per barrel, dipped to a low of $63.66, and closed down 0.4% at $64.19, showing a mixed trading pattern [1][9] - The Brent crude oil price fell by 0.27%, closing at $68.53 per barrel, reflecting a similar trend in the oil market [1] - The oil market is expected to test resistance levels between $64.8-$65.6, with support levels at $63.7-$63.0 [9] Group 3: Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25289.68, reached a high of $25616.6, and closed at $25166.83, indicating fluctuations within the trading session [4][10] - The index is experiencing pressure from upper moving averages, with resistance levels identified at $25357-$25600 and support levels at $25100-$25000 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market has shown significant resilience amid recent market volatility, with a net inflow of nearly 90 billion yuan on February 5, indicating strong investor interest despite broader market declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 5, the A-share market opened lower due to declines in overseas technology stocks and precious metals, but the stock ETF market experienced a net inflow of 88.99 billion yuan [2]. - The total scale of all stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 3.9 trillion yuan as of February 5 [2]. - The net inflow for A-share stock ETFs specifically was 34.95 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: ETF Inflows and Outflows - The leading inflows were observed in Hong Kong stock ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with net inflows of 53.2 billion yuan and 19.47 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - Conversely, bond ETFs experienced a net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan [2]. - Notably, ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index saw a net inflow of 29.72 billion yuan, while those tracking the CSI 500 Index had a net outflow of 31.39 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Fund Company Performance - Major fund companies such as Huaxia, Huatai-PB, and E Fund saw net inflows of 31.8 billion yuan, 28.5 billion yuan, and 28.2 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - In contrast, Southern and Jiashi funds experienced net outflows of 28.5 billion yuan and 3.8 billion yuan [2]. Group 4: Specific ETF Performance - E Fund's ETFs reached a total scale of 651.95 billion yuan, with significant inflows in various ETFs, including 9.2 billion yuan for the China Internet ETF and 3.6 billion yuan for the Hang Seng Technology ETF [3]. - Huaxia Fund's A500 ETF and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF also saw substantial inflows of 11.99 billion yuan and 6.5 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, with risks that have been accelerating in the short term, particularly in cyclical sectors like metals [5]. - Despite recent adjustments in the technology sector, the overall fundamental outlook remains robust, suggesting limited downside potential [5]. - Consumer sectors may present opportunities for recovery, especially with upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the National People's Congress [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upward space is limited. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4] - For other commodities: A shares adjusted downward with low trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to recover tomorrow; gold is expected to continue fluctuating, so participation should be cautious; iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support and a bearish outlook; glass has a bullish tendency with minor daily adjustments; methanol may fluctuate slightly and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers; pulp is in a range - bound trend due to slow domestic consumption recovery [7][10][11][14][17][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **External Events**: Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government production - cut plan, with some 2026 output quotas potentially cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025. This has led to a rise in export quotes, a limit - up in the A - share coal sector, and a stronger coking coal futures market [3] - **Domestic Situation**: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines are on holiday, reducing supply. However, Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu Port remain high. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, with fundamental improvements [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Coking coal futures are oscillating between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with 1300 yuan being a strong resistance level. Trading volume did not increase during recent rallies, and market activity is low due to the approaching Spring Festival [3] A Shares - The overall A - share market adjusted downward with low trading volume today. Technically, the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the end, and it is expected to recover tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold prices have continued to decline significantly, and fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still weak. Technically, it has broken through the support platform, and the outlook is bearish [11][12] Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side optimization. Technically, it adjusted today, but the bullish view remains [14][15] Methanol - Methanol at ports may fluctuate slightly due to expected import reduction. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption progress, port inventory changes, and coal price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand recovers [17] Pulp - Since the end of last year, the supply - demand pattern of pulp has improved, driving prices to bottom out. However, the slow recovery of domestic terminal consumption restricts price increases, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be sufficient, but logistics congestion may cause the selling pressure on Brazilian soybean discounts to be postponed. The production of Argentine soybeans may be affected by dry conditions, but rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] - The demand for soymeal shows a seasonal decline. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. The far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control. [10] - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, and the current inventory is still at a high level. The number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] - In the short term, the unilateral price of soymeal is expected to have limited rebound and will maintain a weak and volatile trend later. The domestic supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is expected to show a reverse spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Basis Data - On January 30th, the basis of 43% soymeal spot in Dalian was 453, up 15; in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang it was 373, up 15; in Tianjin it was 413, up 35; in Dongguan it was 353, up 35; in Zhanjiang it was 383, up 35; in Fangcheng it was 373. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 105, down 42. [4] - M3 - M2 was 294, unchanged; RM5 - 9 was - 19, down 11. [4] b. Inventory Data - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] c. International Supply Data - As of January 24th, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 6.6%, up 2.3% from last week and 3.2% faster than the same period last year. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian soybeans is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season to reach 178 million tons. [10] - As of January 21st, the proportion of good - rated soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 38% (last week's value was 61%, last year's same - period value was 26%), and rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] d. Domestic Demand Data - The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. Under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control, the far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink. The pre - holiday procurement of soymeal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the delivery performance is good. [10]

- The report mentions a **cycle analysis model**, which is used to track market trends and identify potential stabilization signals. The model suggests that the market may have reached a small-scale stabilization point, indicating a shift into a short-term oscillation phase with a clearer oscillation range[2][7] - A **trend model** is also referenced, which remains in a bullish zone on a larger scale. This model supports the inference that the market's short-term movements are constrained within a two-way oscillation pattern[2][7] - The **industry rotation model** is highlighted, showing dispersed signals across various sectors. It identifies opportunities in low-valuation sectors like banking, adjusted sectors like media, and sectors that have been consolidating, such as communication and growth-oriented industries. This model suggests a balanced allocation strategy for the current market environment[7] - The **four-wheel drive industry model** is presented, which provides specific signals for sector opportunities. For example, it identifies potential opportunities in sectors like photovoltaic leaders, communication, and banking, as well as trading opportunities in growth-oriented sectors and media. The model uses signal types such as "potential opportunity" and "trading opportunity" to guide sector allocation[13]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder, each having different implications for monetary policy and market stability [1] Group 1: Candidates and Their Implications - Kevin Hassett has been a favored candidate for a long time, closely aligned with Trump's economic policies, which may lead to aggressive monetary policy stances [1] - Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Governor, is also in the running, but his approach may not align as closely with Trump's preferences [1] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as a moderate rate cutter, potentially more acceptable to various stakeholders, and could be a compromise choice for Trump [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Sun Lijian from Fudan University warns that sacrificing the independence of the Federal Reserve for political gains could have long-term negative consequences for the U.S. economy [1] - Zhang Jianping from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation notes that Hassett's economic policy thinking has been significantly influenced by Trump since the first term [1] - Scholar Chu Yin suggests that while Hassett may be Trump's preferred choice, it could lead to significant market volatility, indicating that a more stable approach may be necessary [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.31% at 4126.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.60 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.82% to 3349.14 points [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 40 trillion, reaching 39.872 billion, an increase of 2.881 billion from the previous day, setting a new historical record for trading volume [3] Market Volatility - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of 4190 points in the morning before dropping to a low of 4109 points, with an intraday fluctuation of 90 points, representing a 2% change [4] - The large trading volume of 3.93 trillion is noteworthy, and its sustainability is questioned, as historical instances of trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion have often preceded market peaks [5][6] Regulatory Impact - The market's sharp fluctuations were triggered by regulatory signals from management, specifically the announcement of new financing rules that raised the margin requirement from 80% to 100% [4] - This measure is seen as a conventional tool for counter-cyclical regulation, aimed at cooling down the currently heated market, where the scale of financing has accumulated to approximately 2.6 trillion [4] Market Sentiment - Despite the significant fluctuations, the market's overall sentiment remains strong, with a median increase of 0.13% among individual stocks, indicating that the market is not easily cooled down by a single policy signal [6] - The current market dynamics serve as a test for the quality of individual stocks and investment logic, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies during periods of high volatility [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]