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TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT(1698.HK):3Q25 BEAT;DEEPENED MONETISATIONS WITH SUPERIOR EFFICIENCY ON SOLIDIFIED CORE EDGES DESPITE ACCELERATED INVESTMENTS IN 2026
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-14 21:31
Core Insights - The company reported a 21% year-over-year increase in total revenue and a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, surpassing street expectations by 3% and 4% respectively [1][3] - Music subscription revenue grew by 17% year-over-year, supported by 1.3 million quarterly paying user net additions and a monthly ARPPU of RMB11.9, while music non-subs revenue surged by 51% year-over-year due to strong advertising and offline performances [1][3] Revenue Performance - Total revenue reached RMB8.5 billion, reflecting a 21% year-over-year growth, with music revenue accelerating to RMB7.0 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase [3] - Music subscriptions and non-subscriptions contributed significantly, with non-subscriptions logging a remarkable 51% year-over-year growth [3] Strategic Insights - The company is expected to enhance monetization through accelerated investments in 2026, focusing on solidified content, user insights, and operational expertise [2] - Increased penetration of SVIP subscriptions is driven by diverse content genres, exclusive privileges, innovative AI-powered features, and streamlined operations [2] Financial Estimates - FY2025-27 total revenue estimates have been raised by 1-3%, with largely unchanged music subscription forecasts and increased music non-subs revenue projections [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 grew to RMB2.4 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus expectations [3] Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to US$24.0 / HK$94.0, based on a blended 2026E adjusted PER of 24.0x, with 80% of profit expected from music and 20% from social [4]