Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that since 2005, cyclical industries have shown a greater than 65% probability of rising in the fourth quarter, with over 60% likelihood of outperforming the CSI 300 index, contingent on improved macroeconomic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Calendar Effect of Cyclical Industries - Since 2005, cyclical industries have a fourth-quarter rise probability exceeding 65% and a probability of outperforming the CSI 300 index over 60% [2][3]. - The calendar effect for cyclical industries in the fourth quarter is based on expectations of improved macroeconomic fundamentals, which historically stem from either PPI improvements or significant economic narratives [3][4]. Group 2: Performance Indicators and Historical Context - In years with active industry sectors but few macroeconomic highlights, fourth-quarter stock prices tend to provide stronger guidance for the following year's growth sectors [6]. - Historical data shows that in active years like 2013-2015, 2019-2021, and 2024, sectors that lead in the fourth quarter have a high probability of continuing their performance into the next year [6]. Group 3: Selection of Growth Sectors - Current indicators suggest that sectors such as optical modules, PCB, innovative pharmaceuticals, and colored metals maintain healthy trends, while innovative pharmaceuticals are currently in a consolidation phase [8]. - Sectors with bullish option characteristics, including automotive parts, robotics, and consumer electronics, have shown relative stability and are suitable for mid-term attention [12].