Market Performance - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% to close at 3954 points, briefly surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high and achieving a cumulative increase of nearly 18% this year [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.1% to 13378 points, with a year-to-date increase of 28.46% [1] - The ChiNext Index declined by 1.56% to 3187 points, with a year-to-date increase of 48.84% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both experienced their first monthly decline in five months [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index dropped by 5.33%, while the North Exchange 50 Index rose by 3.54% [1] Sector Performance - The top five performing sectors over the past 20 trading days included Energy Metals with a rise of 15.55%, Coal Mining and Processing up by 12.6%, Industrial Metals increasing by 12.25%, Steel rising by 10.52%, and Insurance up by 9.86% [2] - The bottom five performing sectors included Gaming down by 8.28%, Black Home Appliances down by 5.96%, Communication Equipment down by 4.07%, Film and Cinema down by 3.77%, and Kitchen and Bathroom Appliances down by 3.66% [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top five individual stocks in October included Chaoying Electronics with a rise of 330.8%, C He Yuan-U up by 325.15%, Dao Sheng Tian He increasing by 279.6%, Aomeisen up by 276.36%, and Changjiang Nengke rising by 247.09% [2] - The bottom five individual stocks included *ST Yuan Cheng down by 56.67%, Guomai Culture down by 42.2%, Fuje Environmental down by 31.09%, Jiyou Shares down by 29.47%, and Yitian Intelligent down by 27.62% [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3863.89 points, up 0.63%, and a total trading volume of 772.50 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21 points, up 0.98%, with a trading volume of 965.10 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2993.46 points, up 1.98%, with a trading volume of 435.09 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The coal mining and processing sector led the gains with an increase of 5.03%, totaling a trading volume of 322.23 million hands and a net inflow of 23.81 billion yuan [2] - The gas sector followed with a rise of 4.32%, with a trading volume of 138.59 million hands and a net inflow of 9.81 billion yuan [2] - The electrical machinery sector increased by 3.16%, with a trading volume of 56.14 million hands and a net inflow of 1.46 billion yuan [2] - In contrast, the high-end housing sector saw the largest decline at -7.05%, with a trading volume of 79.90 million hands and a net outflow of 1.85 billion yuan [2] - The kitchen and bathroom appliances sector decreased by 1.82%, with a trading volume of 5.60 million hands and a net outflow of 0.04 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that since 2005, cyclical industries have shown a greater than 65% probability of rising in the fourth quarter, with over 60% likelihood of outperforming the CSI 300 index, contingent on improved macroeconomic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Calendar Effect of Cyclical Industries - Since 2005, cyclical industries have a fourth-quarter rise probability exceeding 65% and a probability of outperforming the CSI 300 index over 60% [2][3]. - The calendar effect for cyclical industries in the fourth quarter is based on expectations of improved macroeconomic fundamentals, which historically stem from either PPI improvements or significant economic narratives [3][4]. Group 2: Performance Indicators and Historical Context - In years with active industry sectors but few macroeconomic highlights, fourth-quarter stock prices tend to provide stronger guidance for the following year's growth sectors [6]. - Historical data shows that in active years like 2013-2015, 2019-2021, and 2024, sectors that lead in the fourth quarter have a high probability of continuing their performance into the next year [6]. Group 3: Selection of Growth Sectors - Current indicators suggest that sectors such as optical modules, PCB, innovative pharmaceuticals, and colored metals maintain healthy trends, while innovative pharmaceuticals are currently in a consolidation phase [8]. - Sectors with bullish option characteristics, including automotive parts, robotics, and consumer electronics, have shown relative stability and are suitable for mid-term attention [12].