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金风科技(002202):风机盈利回升主线延续 绿色甲醇有望贡献增量
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-06 06:35
Company Status - The National Energy Administration recently announced that China's newly installed wind power capacity for 2025 is expected to reach 119.87 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [1] Commentary - The domestic wind power demand and wind turbine export trends are optimistic for 2026. The China Wind Energy Association (CWEA) previously estimated that the newly installed wind power capacity in China for 2026 will be 120 GW, which is considered a baseline support, with actual figures potentially exceeding this scale. Additionally, CWEA disclosed that by the end of 2025, China's cumulative wind turbine exports will exceed 28 GW (excluding overseas production and sales), with over 7.2 GW exported in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of over 38%. This indicates that wind turbine exports have become a significant driver of industry growth, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [2] - The company is expected to see a continued recovery in wind turbine profitability, with the green methanol business anticipated to contribute additional revenue starting in 2026. The company has actively laid out its green methanol business over the past few years and has signed supply agreements with international shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. As the first phase of the green methanol project in Inner Mongolia's Hinggan League gradually reaches production capacity, it is expected to start contributing to performance from 2026 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering that the company's power station business profitability may continue to be under pressure in 2025, the company's profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 17.5% to 2.734 billion yuan, while the 2026 profit forecast remains unchanged at 4.741 billion yuan, and a new profit forecast for 2027 has been introduced at 6.061 billion yuan. The current A-share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1/17.3 for 2026/2027, while the H-share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6/8.0 for 2026/2027. The company is optimistic about the continued improvement in wind turbine profitability and maintains a rating of outperforming the industry for both A-shares and H-shares. Due to the upward adjustment of A-share industry valuation levels, the target price for A-shares has been raised by 27.7% to 25.8 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.0/18.0 for 2026/2027, indicating a potential upside of 3.9% from the current stock price. The target price for H-shares remains unchanged at 17.39 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0/10.6 for 2026/2027, indicating a potential upside of 32.5% from the current stock price [3]