摘要 特变电工在电力设备领域表现突出，受益于新能源装机增长和用电量提 升，出口订单增速迅猛，预计 2026 年估值有望超过 1,500 亿，当前估 值仍具优势，光伏、煤炭及黄金矿业等业务领域也有可能超预期表现。 锂电板块受出口管制政策影响短期承压，但政策主要针对早期技术，长 期来看储能需求持续向好，龙头企业如欣旺达、宁德时代估值合理，海 博思创增速强劲，阳光能源长期看好。 风电板块不受美国关税影响，主要出口市场在欧洲和东南亚，风机及海 工上市公司处于景气周期，金风科技绿色制甲醇投资值得关注。 三季度业绩前瞻显示，尚太科技出货量大幅增长，普莱德涂敷业绩快速 增长，中科负极材料表现良好，预计四季度量利双升逻辑明确。 宁德时代三季度出货确认预计环增约 13%，全年产量大概率超过 720G 瓦时，全年业绩预期为 680 亿至 700 亿，2026 年归母净利润预期为 900 亿左右。 PCB 铜箔板块持续看好，德福科技和铜冠铜箔三季度产品结构改善，高 端产品出货量增长显著，四季报值得期待高端 HVIP 产品涨价预期。 科达制造海外建材业务新产能投产，瓷砖出货量环比上升，盈利有望延 续并提升，新能源相关业务增长超预期， ...

天眼查App显示，近日，江西赣易通工贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为游江荣，注册资本50万人民币， 经营范围为许可项目：建设工程施工，建筑劳务分包，住宅室内装饰装修，检验检测服务，建筑智能化 系统设计（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后在许可有效期内方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目 和许可期限以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交 流、技术转让、技术推广，风机、风扇销售，机械电气设备销售，制冷、空调设备销售，保温材料销 售，金属结构销售，光伏设备及元器件销售，金属制品销售，消防技术服务，光伏发电设备租赁，太阳 能热发电产品销售，消防器材销售，建筑材料销售，电线、电缆经营，金属材料销售（除依法须经批准 的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

风机制造业务：25H1 风机盈利开启上行修复期，海外订单高增全球风电市场景气度高企，根据GWEC 《2025 全球风电发展报告》，2024年全球新增风电装机容量达到117GW，其中陆上风电109GW，海上 风电8GW。风电行业内卷趋势减缓，行业中标价格企稳，2024 年8 月起，国内风机投标均价呈现上行 修复。2025 年6 月整机投标价为1616 元/kw，同比2024 年6 月的1465 元/kw，提升10.3%。风机行业集 中度不断提升，头部厂商竞争加剧。2024 年国内风机市场CR5 份额已达 74%，CR3 与CR5差距进一步 拉大，金风科技凭借先发优势和长期积累，与各大电力集团建立了稳定的合作关系，风机出货量连续多 年位居中国第一。 金风科技：全球风电整机领军企业，持续引领行业创新发展全球风电领军企业，业务覆盖全产业链彰显 一体化竞争优势。金风科技成立于1998 年，深度聚焦风电全产业链发展，形成风机制造、风电服务、 风电场投资与开发三大业务板块布局。2024 年公司国内风电新增装机容量达18.67GW，国内市场份额 占比22%，连续十四年排名全国第一；全球新增装机容量19.3GW，全球市场份额1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the following companies: GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK), Hewei Electric (603063 CH), Sany Renewable Energy (688349 CH), Daqo New Energy (688303 CH), and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438 CH) [6][8] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding measures to combat price disorder in the market, which is expected to support the wind and solar industries [1][2] - Wind power is identified as a leading sector in the new energy industry, benefiting from improved bidding rules and a continuous recovery in turbine prices, with an average bidding price of 1616 RMB/kW in June 2025, up 5.8% from December 2024 [2] - Silicon materials are emphasized as a key focus for the solar industry, with prices for N-type silicon materials rising by 53.3% to 53,200 RMB/ton as of September 2025, driven by industry self-discipline and top-level design [2] Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The report outlines specific measures to regulate pricing behavior, including ensuring that operators do not bid below cost and establishing industry cost benchmarks [1] - The implementation of legal and regulatory penalties for non-compliance is expected to drive a steady improvement in market order [1] Investment Opportunities - The report expresses optimism about investment opportunities in wind and solar sectors, driven by a combination of domestic supply-side reforms and international demand growth due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] - Recommended stocks include Sany Renewable Energy, Hewei Electric, GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [3][6] Company Performance - GCL-Poly Energy is expected to benefit from strategic financing and industry consolidation, with a target price of 2.22 HKD [9] - Hewei Electric reported a 36.39% year-on-year revenue increase in H1 2025, with a target price of 48.05 RMB [9] - Sany Renewable Energy's revenue grew by 62.75% in H1 2025, with a target price of 38.01 RMB [9] - Daqo New Energy's financial resilience is highlighted despite losses, with a target price of 33.84 RMB [9] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to benefit from ongoing industry reforms, with a target price of 25.39 RMB [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the A-share market, with major indices achieving significant monthly gains, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose by 12.04% in September [4] - The stock portfolio for October 2025 shows a diverse range of companies with strong investment themes, including overseas expansion, innovative pharmaceuticals, and recovery in the wind power sector [2][3] Company Summaries Huaxin Cement (600801) - The company is actively expanding overseas, aiming to double its cement production capacity from 25 million tons to approximately 50 million tons by 2025 [10] - Despite a slight decline in cement sales, non-cement business segments such as aggregates and concrete have shown significant growth [10] - The company reported a revenue of 34.217 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 1.36% increase year-on-year, with a notable recovery in net profit in the first half of 2025 [10] Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) - The company achieved record high operating performance with a revenue of 94.773 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.671 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 60.07% year-on-year increase [12] - The company is expanding its global footprint, particularly in gold resources, and has successfully acquired a mining project in Ecuador [16] - The diversified product portfolio, including copper and cobalt, positions the company well against market fluctuations [16] Heng Rui Medicine (600276) - The company reported a stable growth in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 8.556 billion yuan, up 12.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.576 billion yuan, up 24.88% [20] - The innovative drug segment is a key driver of growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [20] - The company is focusing on accelerating the commercialization of new products to enhance future growth [20] CATL (300750) - The company reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.33% increase year-on-year [24] - CATL continues to innovate with new products in the electric vehicle battery sector, maintaining a strong market position [24] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has significant cash reserves to support its growth strategy [24] Goldwind Technology (002202) - The company achieved a revenue of 28.537 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 41.26% increase year-on-year, with a notable improvement in profitability [29] - The sales of large wind turbine units have significantly increased, with a sales capacity of 10.64 GW, up 106.60% year-on-year [29] - The international business segment has also seen substantial growth, with a revenue increase of 75.34% [29] XCMG Machinery (000425) - The company reported a revenue of 54.808 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a growth of 8.04% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.358 billion yuan [34] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas business, which now accounts for 46.61% of total revenue [34] - The growth in demand for earth-moving machinery and the recovery in the lifting machinery sector are key highlights [34] Inovance Technology (300124) - The company reported a revenue of approximately 9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a 50% increase in its new energy business [38] - The company is leveraging its multi-platform and customized solutions to enhance its market position [38] - Significant growth in international sales, particularly in emerging markets, is noted [38] Changdian Technology (600584) - The company achieved a revenue of 18.605 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, despite a decline in net profit [43] - Changdian Technology is recognized as a leading player in advanced packaging technology within the semiconductor industry [43] - The company is focusing on automotive electronics and has seen a 34.2% increase in revenue from this segment [43] Luxshare Precision (002475) - The company reported a revenue of 1245.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 6.644 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.13% increase [48] - The consumer electronics segment continues to grow steadily, with significant contributions from new product launches [48] - The automotive business has shown remarkable growth, with an 82.07% increase in revenue [48] Kingsoft Office (688111) - The company is focusing on integrating AI technologies into its office solutions, aiming to enhance productivity and user experience [49] - The report indicates a strong market position and growth potential in the AI-driven office software sector [49]

风电出海和风机&光伏历史相对底部的组件会有什么叙事？ 20251006 摘要 欧洲海风市场需求旺盛，塔筒和海缆订单预计在下半年陆续出现，为 2027 年业绩增长提供支撑。金风科技受益于国内订单价格回暖和海外 出海逻辑，值得重点关注。 光伏组件板块目前处于股价底部，性价比较高。硅料价格上涨空间有限， 组件环节的反内卷成为关注重点。底部光伏中的组件是四季度重点关注 方向。 风电行业受多重因素催化，包括山东风电电价高于光伏、欧洲招标超预 期、国内海风开工加速及深远海政策支持。看好风机和两海（特别是出 海）两条主线。 国内风机招标量虽同比下降，但仍处于高位。国际招标量大幅增长，表 明出口景气度高。陆风价格持续回暖，且幅度超预期，运营商更注重风 场全生命周期成本。 金风科技毛利率连续两个季度超预期，净利润环比提升。预计今年收入 约 550 亿元，明年达 670 亿元，净利润今年 6.5 亿元，明年 63 亿元， 是重点推荐标的。 Q&A 风电板块的主要投资方向是什么？ 风电板块的投资方向主要集中在两个方面：海风出海和风机板块。首先，国内 市场在 9 月份迎来了招标高峰期，每周有三四个吉瓦的量分布在不同环节，预 计国内三 ...

摘要及投资建议 国信证券近日发布风电产业链双周度跟踪：根据国家能源局数据，2025年8月我国新增 风电装机4.17GW，同比+13%；1-8月新增装机容量57.84GW，同比+72.1%；截至2025年8月 末我国累计风电装机579.01GW，占发电装机总容量的15.7%。近两周铜价格价格上涨 3.2%，环氧树脂和玻纤价格环比持平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 【行业要闻】 海风方面，25年上半年江苏、广东重大项目陆续迎来开工。二季度进入交付旺季；25年 是国管海风开发元年，预计规划、竞配、招标、政策下半年有望落地。"十五五"期间年均海 风装机有望超20GW，远超"十四五"水平。陆风方面，25年行业装机有望达100GW创历史新 高，年初以来零部件企业迎来量价齐增，全年业绩有望大幅增长；上半年主机企业国内制造 盈利磨底，随着涨价后订单的陆续交付，三季度交付端将迎来单价和毛利率双重修复。中国 风机出海方兴未艾，25-26年新增订单保持高增，进一步提供利润弹性。 【投资建议】 根据采招网统计，2025年至今，全国风机累计公开招标容量71.7GW（-13%），其中陆 上风机公开招标容量66.4GW（-12%），海上风机公开 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the wind power industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The offshore wind sector is expected to see significant project launches in Jiangsu and Guangdong in the first half of 2025, marking the beginning of a new era for national offshore wind development. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to exceed 20GW, significantly surpassing the previous plan's levels. The onshore wind sector is anticipated to reach a historical high of 100GW in installed capacity in 2025, with component manufacturers experiencing simultaneous increases in volume and price, leading to substantial annual performance growth. The domestic manufacturing profitability for main engine companies is expected to recover in the third quarter as orders are delivered following price increases, providing profit elasticity through new orders from 2025 to 2026 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The wind power sector has generally risen over the past two weeks, with the top three performing segments being complete machines (+15.1%), towers (+13.4%), and submarine cables (+10.2%). The top three individual stocks in terms of growth are Mingyang Smart Energy (+26.3%), Dongfang Cable (+22.7%), and Xinqianglian (+22.7%) [3]. Industry Data - As of August 2025, China's newly installed wind power capacity reached 4.17GW, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The cumulative installed capacity reached 579.01GW, accounting for 15.7% of total power generation capacity. The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) in 2025 is 1,533 CNY/kW [7][39]. Investment Suggestions - Three main investment directions are recommended: 1) Leading companies in export layouts for pipe piles and submarine cables; 2) Domestic complete machine leaders with bottoming profits and accelerating exports; 3) Component manufacturers with opportunities for simultaneous volume and profit growth in 2025. Suggested companies include Goldwind Technology, Dongfang Cable, Guoda Special Materials, Zhongji United, Dajin Heavy Industry, Riyue Co., Times New Materials, Hewei Electric, and Jinlei Co. [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - In September, global asset prices experienced significant fluctuations, with notable volatility in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. markets, particularly in sectors like precious metals, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The market showed a dual driving force of "technology growth" and "cyclical recovery," with structural growth highlights attracting capital despite a generally slowing macroeconomic environment [3][12] Group 2: Top Performing Sectors - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw a substantial rise, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks related to these commodities performing exceptionally well, driven by historical highs in international gold prices [3][4] - The battery supply chain, especially solid-state batteries and energy metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, gained attention due to increased demand and valuation recovery, reflecting optimism about long-term trends in energy storage [5][8] - The wind power sector experienced a turnaround, with significant growth in new installations and improved profitability expectations, marking a shift from revenue growth to profit recovery [9] - The semiconductor industry, particularly in AI-related technologies, saw a surge in demand, leading to substantial stock price increases for leading companies in this space [10][12] Group 3: Underperforming Sectors - The military industry, which had previously seen significant gains, faced a sharp decline in September, with many stocks experiencing over 40% pullbacks following the conclusion of major events [13][14] - Banking stocks, traditionally seen as stable investments, faced a collective downturn as funds shifted towards more popular sectors, with several banks experiencing declines of over 20% [15][17] - The food and beverage sector continued to struggle, with a notable drop in demand and performance, particularly in the liquor and snack segments, leading to significant underperformance compared to the broader market [19][25] Group 4: Technology Giants Performance - In the Hong Kong market, Alibaba and Tencent were standout performers, with Alibaba's stock rising by 53% and Tencent by 11.15%, reflecting strong market sentiment towards technology stocks [28][29] - In the U.S. market, September defied historical trends, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posting gains of 3.11% and 5.29%, respectively, driven by strong performances from tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla [30][32] Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall market performance in September was influenced by global liquidity conditions and capital flows into emerging markets, suggesting a continuation of a "slow bull" market trend into October [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is entering a new cycle of prosperity, with significant growth expected in both offshore and onshore wind projects, driven by domestic and international factors [10][12] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a comprehensive release of performance, with three major catalysts identified: the initiation of deep-sea offshore wind projects, accelerated exports, and recovery in wind turbine profitability [19][102] Summary by Sections Medium to Long Term: New Cycle of Prosperity - Domestic wind power economics are significantly improving, with a positive trend in installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12] - The report highlights that overseas offshore wind power has vast potential, with countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific setting ambitious installation targets for 2030 [16][17] Short Term: Performance Release in H2 2025 - The report forecasts that wind power installations in 2025 could reach 110 GW, with onshore installations expected to hit 100 GW and offshore installations potentially doubling to 10 GW [22] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of accelerated prosperity, supported by the seasonal increase in project initiations [23] Catalysts for Growth - **Catalyst 1**: Acceleration of deep-sea offshore projects, with significant capacity planned across various provinces, totaling approximately 128.3 GW [28][32] - **Catalyst 2**: A turning point in offshore wind installations is expected in 2026, with domestic companies actively pursuing international orders [60] - **Catalyst 3**: Recovery in profitability for wind turbines is anticipated, driven by stable pricing and reduced competition [67][93]