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国泰海通|金工:“2+1”风格择时模型——通过估值、流动性和拥挤度构建量化择时策略
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a quantitative timing research framework for style indices, focusing on the identification of market bottoms and tops through valuation, liquidity, and trading congestion models, highlighting their effectiveness in generating returns since 2011 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Style Index Quantitative Timing Research Framework - The style index includes large-cap, small-cap, value, growth, and dividend indices, with a focus on their valuation and market liquidity characteristics [1]. - The average annualized return for the long positions in the style index valuation model since 2011 is 10.38%, with an average excess annualized return of 8.30% [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Model - The market liquidity factors include buy and sell impact costs, as well as liquidity indices for rising and falling markets, with bottom timing showing more significant accuracy compared to top timing [2]. - The average rebound return from liquidity factor bottom timing is 6.86%, and the average annualized return for the long positions in the liquidity model since 2011 is 12.38%, with an average excess annualized return of 10.30% [2]. Group 3: Trading Congestion Model - Trading congestion is identified as a top-timing risk factor, effectively complementing the valuation and liquidity models [2]. - The excess annualized return for the congestion composite model since 2011 is 4.87% [2]. Group 4: Application of Quantitative Timing Models - The combined application of valuation, liquidity, and congestion models has accurately captured style index bottoms and tops, while effectively mitigating risks from trading congestion [3]. - The average annualized return for the long positions in the timing model since 2011 is 18.54%, with an average excess annualized return of 16.46% and a SHARP ratio of 1.06, achieving an excess return win rate of 87% [3].