Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan is under significant pressure to go public due to a countdown related to a betting agreement with investors, which could lead to substantial financial liabilities if the listing does not occur by the end of 2025 [4][8][22]. Product Structure - Liuliu Guoyuan's main business is heavily concentrated on "plum" snacks, with a declining gross margin, indicating a reliance on star marketing and bulk sales channels that pose growth risks [3][12]. - The company has a narrow product range, primarily focusing on three categories: dried plums, western plums, and plum jelly, with other products contributing less than 1% to revenue [10][11]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Liuliu Guoyuan's revenue grew from 1.174 billion to 1.616 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%, while net profit increased from 68 million to 148 million [14]. - Despite revenue growth, the gross margin for dried plums has been declining, from 39.6% in 2022 to 32.1% in 2024, with an average selling price dropping from 38.1 yuan/kg to 32.6 yuan/kg [14][15]. Marketing and Cost Structure - The company has high marketing expenses, which accounted for 24.08% of revenue in 2024, while R&D spending remains low at about 1-2% of revenue [16][17]. - Liuliu Guoyuan's marketing strategy heavily relies on celebrity endorsements, which has led to a limited brand perception despite significant advertising expenditures [17][18]. Channel Structure - In 2024, revenue from distribution channels was 659 million, making up 40.8% of total revenue, with major clients being bulk snack chains [18]. - The company faces challenges from a "price wave" in the snack industry, affecting its pricing strategy [18]. Shareholder Structure and Financing - The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the founder and his wife controlling 87.77% of the shares [18]. - Liuliu Guoyuan has undergone multiple financing rounds since 2015, often accompanied by agreements that require the company to go public [19][20]. Market Reputation and Challenges - The company has faced significant complaints regarding product safety, with over 400 complaints related to issues like mold and foreign objects [28][29]. - Despite efforts to improve production safety, the brand's reputation has been impacted by past incidents, raising concerns about consumer trust as the company approaches its listing deadline [29][30].