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水羊股份(300740):公司信息更新报告:“高奢美妆集团”打法逐渐清晰,Q1渐入佳境
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-03 07:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has faced performance pressure due to proactive strategic adjustments in 2024, but revenue and profit showed year-on-year growth in Q1 2025. The company reported a revenue of 4.237 billion yuan in 2024, down 5.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, down 62.6% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1.085 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 42 million yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year. The company is increasing investment in high-end brands, although the conversion effect has not met expectations, leading to losses in some mass-market brands. The profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards, with new forecasts for 2027 introduced, expecting net profits of 260 million, 320 million, and 400 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 139%, 21%, and 25.1% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.7, 15.5, and 12.4 for 2025-2027 [5][6][7]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 63%, up 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from an increase in the proportion of high-margin proprietary brands. The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.6%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased market investment in core brands [5][6]. - The company aims for overall improvement in high-end brand revenue and profitability, with mass-market brands expected to break even. The proprietary brand revenue in 2024 was 1.65 billion yuan, accounting for 39% of total revenue. The EDB segment is expected to see double-digit growth in Q1 2025, with a projected annual revenue increase of around 20% [6][7]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue of 4.417 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 263 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year [7][10].