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国投证券韩晖:锚定高质量发展新周期 四中全会释放资本市场三重机遇
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-10-31 13:15
Core Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes a new development stage for the economy, focusing on balancing efficiency, vitality, and safety rather than merely stabilizing growth or passively defending against external risks [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, highlighting the strategic role of technological self-reliance and strength [2] - The focus on "technological self-reliance" is positioned as a starting point for innovation, aiming to empower various industries by overcoming key engineering and scaling challenges [2] - The strategy of opening up to the outside world is elevated, reflecting China's commitment to shaping new competitive advantages through higher-level institutional openness [2] Group 2: Capital Market Opportunities - The Fourth Plenary Session signals three major opportunities for the capital market: - Institutional opportunities arise from the acceleration of capital market reforms, including registration system reforms and enhanced transparency, which aim to create a more vibrant market [4] - Industrial opportunities are highlighted by the shift in focus towards building a modern industrial system, indicating a strategic adjustment as traditional industries face diminishing returns while emerging industries gain potential [5] - Long-term capital opportunities are emphasized, with a call to improve the long-term capital system and promote high-level financial openness, suggesting a more active role for domestic long-term funds and increased foreign capital participation [6] Group 3: Structural Changes and Market Dynamics - The structural advantages of the Chinese economy are becoming increasingly evident, supported by institutional guarantees and governance upgrades, indicating a steady progression towards modernization [3] - The capital market's function is transitioning from merely a financing platform to a resource allocation hub, enhancing the correlation between capital efficiency and long-term returns [4] - The combination of institutional optimization, industrial upgrading, and long-term capital will create a new certainty triangle for the capital market, fostering a stable investment environment [6][7]