Core Insights - Soybeans are a crucial oilseed crop, with yellow soybeans being the most widely planted variety. China, originally a major soybean producer, has become the largest importer due to the influx of genetically modified (GM) soybeans from the US after joining the WTO in 2001 [1][8] - Despite efforts to boost domestic production, China's soybean supply remains insufficient, with projected production of 20.65 million tons against consumption of 114.56 million tons for the 2024/25 period [1][8] - China is heavily reliant on imports, with 2024 imports expected to reach 105 million tons, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, while the import value is projected to decline by 10.9% to $52.726 billion [1][9] Soybean Industry Overview - Soybeans are classified into GM and non-GM varieties, with China being a major producer of non-GM soybeans, while the US, Brazil, and Argentina dominate GM soybean production [3][4] - The global soybean market has seen stable supply growth, with the USDA forecasting a 6.0% increase in global production to 421 million tons for the 2024/25 period [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's soybean production is projected to increase slightly to 21.09 million tons in 2025/26, but consumption will remain high at 114.15 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [8] - The global soybean supply is primarily concentrated in the Americas, with the US, Brazil, and Argentina accounting for over 80% of production [6] Trade Patterns - China's soybean exports are declining, with 2024 exports expected to be 60,200 tons valued at $5.8 million, primarily consisting of non-GM soybeans [8] - The import of GM soybeans is heavily concentrated from Brazil, which accounted for 72.3% of imports in the first eight months of 2025, while imports from the US decreased significantly due to higher costs [9][10] Future Outlook - Domestic soybean production is expected to grow, driven by government support and improved agricultural practices, with a projected planting area of 16.733 million acres by 2029 [12] - The import structure is anticipated to shift towards increasing imports from South American countries and nations involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing supply chain resilience [12]